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Translated by Ollie Richardson

18:39:33
01/06/2017

cont.ws


SIX YEARS ago, the unipolar intrigues of the White house brought the “Arab spring” to safe Syria. The result of its initiation was the outbreak of a military bacchanalia, followed by a retraction in the conflict of all interested geopolitical parties. Bashar al-Assad’s position promptly staggered, and on the side of the opposition were already fought not only terrorist formations, but also a whole range of the fighters redirected to the country. Furthermore, the extremist “Islamic State” settled in the Republic, and afterwards all Islamic radicals, who are unprecedentedly supported by the majority of the pro-American parties, fought for “democracy” against government forces.

TWO YEARS ago, at the official request of the legitimate Damascus government, Russia (unexpectedly for the whole world) began its fateful combat operation. Only this intervention stopped Syria from sliding into the abyss of final and uncontrollable terrorism, and it also prevented the formation of the terrorist “Middle Eastern caliphate in the land of Sham”.

The entrance of the Russian contingent drove the West into deep disorganization, and the entire game board of Middle Eastern American politics was immediately turned upside down.

Unfortunately, at this stage the conflict didn’t come to an end, and at the present moment, already a quarter of a million Syrian lives were laid on the altar of western monetary interests.

Later, the war continued with variable success, while the final rupture occurred exactly a year later. At that time, the liberation of Aleppo became a key episode that not only proved the superiority of Russian geopolitical strategy, but also in general crippled the intra-American position of the transnational elite standing behind the oldest clans of America.

Furthermore, the forces of the Russian coalition continued to liberate territories, while the pro-American side, confused by elections, acted separately and without centralized leadership.

This continued until recently, when about a MONTH ago, the situation on the fronts significantly changed. Exactly then, in the shadow of the lenses of the international and domestic media, there was one more extremely important, and perhaps crucial event.

Another strategic victory for Damascus and Moscow over the long hands of Washington, which were becoming more active in the region…

IF NOT FOR RUSSIA

The first signs of the initiation of a serious American operation began to be shown a little more than a month ago. At that time, the pro-American “Free Syrian Army”, inactive all this time, suddenly sharply upped the scale and pace of its military activity. At the same time, also the number of American personnel under the control of the FSA on Syrian territories started growing, and together with them, on the Jordanian-Iraqi border zone, even more British, German, and other NATO instructors began to be noticed more frequently. Boats with western military equipment went to Jordan, the “opposition” on other fronts began to reduce their numbers, the Kurds officially received weapons, and groups of pro-American troops significantly expanded along the southern borders.

After a while, thunder cracked. And pro-American fighters also began a fast and large-scale offensive from the Jordanian direction. The corridor of the offensive of the troops led all along the Jordanian-Iraqi border (among the desert areas, which only formally belong to ISIS) and therefore ambitiously ended at the outskirts of the Euphrates and the Syrian enclave in Deir-Ezzor.


The yellow arrows are the direction of the impact of pro-American forces; the green areas are the pro-American “moderates” (FSA); the red areas are Assad’s army; the black zones are the ISIS areas; the “island” allocated red in the environment by a “black sea” is the besieged Deir-Ezzor with government troops.

The strategy of the US (most likely) was simple and pragmatic. By advancing forces of the Syrian “opposition” under their control along the southern and eastern borders of the country, the US planned to capture the semi-circle of ISIS forces and thus to push them out deep into the Syrian territories (controlled by Assad).


On the left – the real situation in Syria for May 25th, 2017, (the failed plan); On the right – a hypothetical situation in Syria in the event of its successful realization and the further advance of pro-American forces.

In other words, Washington played a very promising military attacking move, the first stage of which (a buffer using forces under its control) cuts off Syria from the neighbouring Jordan, the second stage, from Iraq and Iran, and the third stage (by bribing, supervising, or asserting direct pressure on ISIS) forces out the terrorists into the area of the pro-Russian coalition.

To the outside, it had to resemble a perfect example of anti-terrorist American-Russian cooperation, but in reality and up-close it wasn’t. In fact – by initiating this plan, the US created a living battering ram from the ISIS militants, which converged from the Syrian borders deep into Assad-controlled territories.

This was done not to combat terrorism, and certainly not within the framework of the agreed plan for its destruction coordinated with Russia at all, but exactly so that the pro-Russian troops were forced to get bogged down in defending the existing borders and territories, and the pro-Americans (at the same time), with full support of aircraft, step by step would move towards the ISIS militants retreating deep into Syria. Thus (if the plan worked), the ”moderate” FSA would systematically occupy all the desert areas liberated from terrorists, and the US would received immediately under its control about 65% of all of territories of the country.


The green is pro-American FSA; the red are forces under the control of the Russian coalition, and black is the remaining part of ISIS.

The highlight of the American plan was that large-scale aviation participation of the American coalition in this case would be impossible to stop. After all, neither the Russian air defenses, nor public opinion could provide arguments against the formal destruction by Americans of exclusively terrorist formations.

The plan was good, the US was completely satisfied with the course of its implementation, and a few weeks ago, the advance of pro-American forces along the Syrian-Jordanian border began.


The total number of militants who the FSA, supported by the US and Jordan, concentrated for carrying out this operation was no less than 10,000-15,000 people, but in the direction of travel through Jordan other efficient units also were added to them.

According to the plans of Americans, the endpoint of the route had to become Deir-Ezzor, where the FSA planned to connect with the groups of the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, consisting of Kurds, and they in turn had to give further Syrian territory occupied by them to pro-American “moderate opposition”. And they would have been handed over, and unambiguously, because after all on the one hand, Washington promised the Kurds their own unified state, and on the another hand, three-quarters of the territories liberated by them are populated with Arabs, and therefore in the future the Kurds still don’t see any sense in consolidating this territory for themselves.

As a result, (and in the case of the non-interference of Russia) the US (taking into account the de-escalation zones) with little effort received under its control 65% of Syrian territories. So, upon the end of war they would have magnificent trump cards to project its geopolitical conditions to Moscow and the exhausted Damascus.

THE DUEL OF GREAT POWERS

It would be silly to believe that the General Staff of the Russian Federation in vain accepts the place given to it. After all, so far the FSA took under its control practically all the border with Jordan, and only just began to advance to the borders of the province of Deir-Ezzor, to the north, in the same direction where Russia already initiated an active counterattack of government troops.

Considering the short time Damascus was able to begin this large-scale operation, and also the high level of logistics the transfer the resources necessary for it was carried out with, it is possible to claim with confidence that the Russian General Staff was informed in advance of the future plans of the American side.

As a result, very timely, the rear was moved forward to Deir-Ezzor, and the pro-American FSA forces were dealt several rapid and dissecting blows.


The Yellow arrows are the direction of the blow of government forces; the green areas are pro-American fighters (FSA); the red areas are the territories under Assad’s control; the black zones are the territories of ISIS.

Along with the attack of government troops from the North, in the south the loyal to Damascus Syrian Druze were mobilised (which also required initial coordination), which for several days (together with government units) almost completely liberated the Suwayda province from pro-American forces, and also advanced along the Syrian-Jordanian border more than 100km.


The FSA was compelled to hastily curtain its offensive, and instead of a victorious march to Deir-Ezzor, it had to try to somehow prevent the quite real prospect of actual encirclement.


As time went on, the main forces of the FSA came back, and the offensive of the pro-Russian forces didn’t stop. The US became flat-out nervous, because the persistent advance of government troops to the main border check-point between Syria and Iraq, to the city of Al-Tanf, not simply crossed out the far-reaching current plans of America, but also in general created a danger of the full defeat of pro-American forces in this direction.


The reason for this is that Al-Tanf isn’t simply a city, but a key object of strategic importance that is needed by all.


Precisely through Al-Tanf lies the only equipped way from Damascus to Baghdad and further on Iranian territories, and having returned it, Assad would immediately receive direct access to the closest Iranian ally, and the US, in turn, would finally lose the created buffer along the Jordanian-Syrian border zone.


By May 18th, the nervousness of the US (which is warmed up by the troops of the Russian coalition coming towards Al-Tanf) increased so much so that Washington was forced to dismiss its initial plans, and also to make a spontaneous air raid on a column of “Damascus allies” – Iraqi volunteers.


A spokesperson of the Pentagon at the time stated that as a result of the attack, a threat to the security of American military personnel was allegedly prevented. And this fact, confirmed twice the act of violation of international law. Firstly, neither the presence of Americans on the territory of Syria, nor the strikes on the Syrian government troops, especially nor the logic of their justification, from the point of view of international law, are legitimate at all, and secondly, the column with infantrymen that was on the march 30km from their positions didn’t represent any threat to the Americans.

This step was ill-advised, and modern Russia has more than once successfully proved that within the framework of political judo, it is able to use any hastiness of the opponent against it. And that’s what happened on this occasion too.

From the moment of the airstrike on the Syrian government column, all movement of government units in this zone are now invariably accompanied by Russian combat aircraft. And in addition, in the zone of the Syrian offensive also a group of Russian military observers arrived, who are strictly watching the actions of their American colleagues. If the Pentagon in the future tries to again repeat with the same justifications military operations against Damascus, the Russian airforce will have all the basis for a mirror answer on FSA positions. Protection of the Russian experts, and their safety – completely legalizes the right for a symmetric answer.

But that’s not all, as while Washington, in connection with the Russian-Syrian offensive in the rear, wrapped its flanks and displaced the left-too-far-forward offensive, a part of ISIS located exactly in that “corridor” through which the American FSA suddenly had to march “triumphantly” suddenly left their positions. Soon, the Americans found out that along with the rear offensive on their forces in the south, the government troops of Syria (with strong support from the Russian airforce) went ahead of the curve and wedged into the route of further movement of pro-American forces. As a result, on May 21st, being afraid of a full encirclement, ISIS militants began an urgent retreat, and the West was placed in front of a stalemate dilemma.

On the one hand, stopping the offensive on Deir-Ezzor and maintaining the rear, allowing Russia and Syria to block the route of a further offensive, and on the another hand, in the event of withdrawal, ISIS territories (which Washington planned to “give” to the oppositional groups) freely moved under the control of government troops, and Al-Tanf and the FSA forces at the borders of Jordan would be left to face the coming massacre. As a result, while the Americans rushed about in thoughts, the government army with massive Russian support within several days occupied all the former ISIS territories hanging over the planned route of the further American offensive and solved the dilemma for them. The corridor for an offensive was partially blocked, and the plan of the US finally failed.


The yellow arrows are the direction of blows of the Syrian government troops and Russian airforce, which blocked the direction of the pro-American offensive on Deir-Ezzor.

Since then, relative balance was established in this region, and the military headquarters of America deeply delved into deep detailed analysis of the inexplicable way the “failsafe” military operation failed…

SUMMARY

Recently, satirical shows of Europe quite often joke about the fact that all plans of the West concerning economic pressure on Russia, for some inexplicable reason lead to self-harm, and the last three years of anti-Russian “repressions” completely led to inexplicable diametrical consequences.

The attack on Deir-Ezzor, (with the further unprincipled incitement of militants against us) in fact, was prevented in the same way, because the live battering ram of terrorists not simply didn’t happen, but also it was turned by Damascus and Moscow against its transatlantic organizers.

Today, in this battlefield, ISIS militants are squeezed out from a zone of 3,000 square kilometers, and the retreating part of the terrorists went not deep into Assad-controlled territories (as it was planned by Washington), but to the pro-American Kurds surrounding Syrian Raqqa. To that Raqqa that Americans (after Mosul) planned to take independently.

Most likely, ISIS groups will also retreat from the now liberated northern Aleppo, and as a result the US, instead of pushing ISIS towards us, together with their allies will be drawn into heavy fighting with the in agony, but still well-prepared terrorist organisation.

As they say in folk wisdom: “don’t dig a hole for someone else”… and “never go to war with the Russians”…

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  • Aeneas Georg

    Thanks for a great analysis of what really happened and how it was possible to capture such a large territory in such a short time. And thanks to the translators too. Much appreciated.

  • Ollie Richardson

    You are welcome! I’m glad you liked it! Keep calm and trust Putin 😉