Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
The President of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko discussed on the air of the Vesti FM radio station on October 4th Poroshenko’s introduction in the Verkhovna Rada of the bill on the reintegration of Donbass.
Ishchenko: “For us in this document it is important to establish the fact of its discrepancy in relation to the Minsk Agreements…
In it, of course, it is certainly interesting that Ukraine declares or is going to declare Donbass as occupied territory, and Russia as the aggressor-country. And here there is the funniest collision – and I’m interested how Ukraine will wriggle out of it. Because, on the one hand, of course, they’ve wanted to denounce the Minsk Agreements for a long time, but they want it to be someone else who does this, because not only Europe, but also even their beloved United States says that the Minsk Agreements must be implemented and observed.
But how can they implement the Minsk Agreements if now they, for example, will legally declare Russia as the aggressor-country? It will turn out that it is precisely the guarantor of the implementation of these agreements that attacked Ukraine. Well, up to now everything was clear: there is civil war, they are at war with Donetsk and Lugansk, and Russia, Germany, and France act as guarantors of the implementation of their agreements. But if they declare that Russia is the aggressor-country, so in this case it can’t be the guarantor of these agreements! So then they should exit the Minsk Agreements, and to say: ‘Sorry, we made a mix up, it turns out that we, for 3 years, have been at war not with those [Republics – ed], but with completely others. And now we need to come to an agreement on some peaceful settlement already with Russia – it is with it that we are at war with, it is it that is the aggressor-country! After all, it is it that occupied territories’.
I think that, in general, all Ukrainian partners won’t be delighted with such a turn out. And if not to do it, but to continue to pretend that ‘everything is in order for us concerning the Minsk Agreements’, so then, naturally, inside Ukraine Poroshenko’s ‘friends’ from various nazi formations, and not only from nazi formations, but also politicians that oppose him, will start asking: ‘Wait, how is it possible? Here is the aggressor-country, and it, according to the documents that were signed by this bastard confectioner, is also the guarantor. What on earth is he doing?!! How can an aggressor be at the same time a guarantor of an agreement that is designed to prevent aggression?!!’ And Poroshenko will be obliged to explain something to his people. Well, not so much to the people, but to his political opponents. And, of course, they will use it in order to worsen his situation. That’s why on the one hand he introduces all these laws, and signs them – like the law that we discussed, about languages in schools, this law on Donbass, and so on. It is he who introduces and signs them in order to show nazis: ‘I am yours, and it is necessary to support me, I do everything that you want, I implement your program’. On the other hand, as they all the same want to remove him, then they will use all his actions against him. That’s why he is in such a situation of a vicious circle. How he will wriggle out from it, I don’t know, but seemingly it will be bad for him.”
Vesti: And what in this document will suit Nazis – Poroshenko’s friends, and how should it be in this case?
Ishchenko: “This document completely suits them. I will simply say that then they will use it against Poroshenko and will demand: ‘And why do we have Minsk agreements with the aggressor-country when it is a guarantor?’ And Poroshenko can’t just simply tear them up, because Merkel will immediately start to be nervous, Macron will start to be nervous, Trump will start to be nervous, and all will ask: ‘Petro, how is it possible?!’ After all, Ukrainian leaders said themselves that when they were forced to sign these Minsk Agreements that it’s not Putin who forced them, they were called precisely from Germany, they were called from the United States and said: ‘Guys, if you won’t sign it, we won’t be able to do anything for you, sign it, whilst it’s not too late!’
And now they will be told approximately the same thing: ‘Guys, if you exit it [Minsk – ed], we won’t be able to do anything for you’. But Poroshenko can be afraid that nothing can be done for him, but for the Nazis it’s all the same – they want to fight. That’s why they will push him further either to start military operations, leaning precisely on the norms of this bill, which by then will already be a law, and which as of now is being introduced by him in parliament, or they will remove him and implement this law themselves as they see fit and, once again, to move to open military operations. That’s why Poroshenko digs a hole for himself. There was a need to fight against Nazis 3 years ago, and not against Donbass!”
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