Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
I remember a few weeks ago I gave the state of affairs of reserves of coal in Ukraine, and affirmed that at the key date, they will not be able to accumulate the planned amount of coal, because it is physically impossible.
Some commentators in response to me wrote that I again exaggerate, and that the Kiev regime “once again came away unscathed”.
Let me remind you, according to the pseudo-Minister Nosalik, Ukraine was planning to accumulate 2.8 million tons of coal up to 1st of November, which would give the ability to somehow get through the winter without too much disruption.
However, fresh data about the state of stocks has just been published. In the period from 9th September (when I last published data) until the 16th October, the reserves increased from 1.414 million tons only by 114,000 tons. And on 16th October it was 1.528 million tons.
According to the latest published information announcement of NPC “Ukrenergo” reserves of anthracite coal grades increased by 55,000 tons to 685,000 tons (including 90,000 tons to the Lugansk TPP), grades “G” and “D” – 59,000 tons – up to 843,000 tonnes.
Two weeks remain for Kiev (in fact, already one, but there is still no data for last week yet) in order to accumulate 1.3 million tons of coal. I.e. it is necessary to almost double reserves in two weeks.
And judging by the current tempo shown up to now, it is possible to state, at best, an increase of reserves by approximately 50,000-100,000 tons, i.e. up to the value of approximately 1.6 million tons (less than 60% of the required reserves).
The situation in gas, as we know, is no better. As of October 20th, the Underground Gas reserves in Ukraine was about 14.68 billion cubic meters (47.5%). I recall that in recent years that the minimally sufficient for the passage of winter and transit of gas to Europe was considered to be the level of 18 billion cubic meters.
At this time Kiev has already stopped pumping gas and started extraction. It means that reserves will not be increased anymore, and will only fall.
I recall the level of 4.5-5 billion cubic meters (15-16%) is unrecoverable residues. And last year Underground Gas was also less than required, but at least not as significant as this year.
I am not going to argue that they will not survive the winter. For sure they probably will. And who cares, there will be intermittent blackouts. And who cares, again the level of accidents electrical and heating systems will increase due to their operation in various moron regimes, which were not envisaged by developers. And who cares, the temperature in apartments will be even lower than last year. And who cares, there will be much more diseases of pneumonia, meningitis, sinusitis, and just frostbite.
Because of course it’s more important that Poroshenko will further continue to promise a visa-free regime. And it will be possible to freely hate Moskals. Maidan was standing for this. And for the sake of this it is worth enduring hardship.
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