Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
Already two and a half years have passed since the state coup in Ukraine. And it is now possible to say with certainty that, Yes – Putin’s Cunning Plan exists. Only, this plan is not really a plan in the classical sense. And it’s not at all cunning, but quite logical, pragmatic and consistent — since the first days of the crisis.
It is possible to say that Russia successfully achieved a number of pre-defined goals. In addition, some intentions were partially fulfilled. And another part of the tasks are being implemented now. Ukraine already lost — she didn’t succeed to break the scenario in 2014, Kiev had the latest breakthroughs during Debaltsevo and Minsk-2. Now it is senseless for Ukraine to flap around — although of course she will try again. Because Kiev elites absolutely do not want to sit on the bench of the accused, and then to repeat the fate of Ribbentrop, Keitel, Kaltenbrunner, Frick, Streicher, Seyss-Inquart, and Jodl.
Already now negotiations are ongoing from the Kiev elites in order to save lives and save finances. Only two do not participate in it — Turchynov and Avakov. Firstly, nobody wants to guarantee the preservation of Turchynov’s life. Secondly, he presents himself as an inadequate Protestant-sectarian with a claim to the Messiahship. Forgiveness and rescue also are not likely for Avakov, taking into account his numerous hit-jobs and participation in the formation of penal battalions. As strange as it sounds, Poroshenko is in a slightly better position — he has something to bargain with and he was not directly dirtied by cooperation with Ukrainian nationalists. The fact that he is the Chief of the UAF, and thus shares with the Minister of Defence and the Generals of the General Staff responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Donbass, is a separate conversation.
Petro Poroshenko is still the “legitimate” President of Ukraine and “partner”, because he guarantees the safety of the gas transportation system. This is his main role in the post of the President of Ukraine. As long as he abides by its obligations, no Third Maidans can scare him. They will not be allowed neither by Europe nor Russia. Ukraine generally does not signify much in international relations, although, it creates a lot of noise. The safety of the gas transportation system of Ukraine to 2019 is the main priority of Russia and Europe. After 2019, when the gas will bypass Ukraine and Europe, Russia will exclude Ukraine from the agenda.
The only danger for Petro Poroshenko is that Europe and Russia will agree on an alternative figure who will ensure the safety of the gas transportation system. Then Petro will not even have the time to reach Rostov by air.
Therefore do not expect drastic changes in the political field of Ukraine. Without the involvement of powerful third parties, they are unlikely. But there will be many media spectacles anyway – “Right Sector”, “Azov”, Yulia Tymoshenko, and the “Opposition bloc” will from time to time make waves in order to negotiate for power and financial flows. But all of this is purely domestic affairs — no one is concerned about it outside of Kiev.
Past events show how few, it turns out, among the network of writers, online analysts, top bloggers, and other opinion leaders know at least some crumbs of information, or even at least are able to adequately and pragmatically think.
This is not surprising. Real analysts don’t work in blogs. And very rarely openly publish information in the public domain. And if they do, it is with specific goals.
No, we will not discuss specific network of provocateurs who are constantly, year after year, demanding that Russia enters the war. Anywhere, be it in Ukraine, Georgia, or in Moldova. I studied these people very well. For them, the turmoil in Russia is a chance for vertical social mobility. Because without the turmoil in Russia they will, until the end of their life, walk in shabby sweaters on useless network TV channels. The more chaos and blood in Russia, the more chances for them of recognition, money, and power. At least, that’s what they think. Political realities, even in the face of turmoil, when everything becomes simplified and flattened, of course, are more complicated.
And that’s why they will continue to demand to respond to every minor foreign policy incident with tank columns and nuclear strikes. Ukraine will continue to generate these incidents, Internet “analysts” will continue to demand that Russia send troops to seize Lvov, Poland, Germany and so on. This process already became familiar, like American sitcoms – “situation comedies”. Even the actors don’t change.
So-called Russian nationalists are extremely closely adjacent to the Internet provocateurs; people who were unable to realize themselves in the profession and life — and that’s why they spill around them aggression and the desire to get even with an unjust world. Even their leaders, if we carefully examine their life and professional activities, inspire pity and bewilderment. Whether Russian nationalists or “conscious” Ukrainian nationalists — both of them are the stepchildren of the same internal psychological problems. We see what the result was of pandering to nationalists in Ukraine. And this is only the beginning — a nationalist cannot be a creator, his psychological profile will never allowed him to behave adequately. But he can pursue and kill “not correct Ukrainians”, in the case of Ukrainian nationalists, and “not correct Russians”, in the case of Russian nationalists, very much so. But its impossible to build a state on such acts of intimidation. Unless you can create something unviable and ugly — which is now what Ukraine is. But such cadavers do not last long.
Vladimir Putin did not allow the US, Europe, and Ukraine to involve him in the conflict. And Russia did not become a party to the conflict, even though Kiev and Washington dreams about it. And sanctions on energy resources, which were initially planned by the US, were never realized.
This solved a number of other tasks. The conflict in the East of Ukraine gradually turned into low intensity fighting. Thus, Vladimir Putin did not allow Kiev and Washington to turn almost all the South-Eastern region into ruins. Those who want to see what happens to a town when there is a full frontal operation should study the contemporary photography of Aleppo. Russia didn’t need Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, or Kherson to become concrete reinforcing and crushed rock deserts at all; that millions of refugees rush to the territory of Russia and create additional pressure on the budget of the Russian Federation and the labour market, and worsen the criminal situation. Even in the case of Donbass, Russia tried to halt the development of the conflict —it is precisely because of this that there was a request from Vladimir Putin to postpone the referendum. But it turned out the way it did. Most likely, in this case it was not possible at all to do it without a little bloodshed.
In addition, experienced military personnel and officers don’t like to create extra “blood feuds” resulting from military operations. “Mountains of cadavers” demand only those who never, even in the morgue, have seen dead people, but went through dozens of computer games, having filled the on-screen drawings with lead and napalm. Experts always prefer to restrict themselves to the necessary minimum of casualties. For this reason, in the war of 08.08.08, Georgians were pushed towards their homes and weren’t impeached from throwing in the bushes their weapons and uniforms. While the 58th army could have easily arranged a bloody massacre of the vocal Georgian army.
And it was absolutely possible to capture Georgia. But they did not do it. And that’s why initially it was clear that Russia, under any circumstances, will not capture Ukraine, even though Kiev dreams about it. In fact, for the Kiev elite, who heavily dirtied themselves with blood, the only guaranteed 100% salvation of life would be the entry of NATO troops and the delineation of areas of responsibility between Russia and NATO on the Dnieper.
The “valuable” suggestions to Russia were already received from Europe — “take Donbass for you, and we will leave for us the rest of Ukraine”, to which Russian officials showed Europe the “Stakhanov movement“. There will never be any occupation of Ukraine. But at the same time Ukraine will be in the area of responsibility and governance of Russia as a weak, disarmed, controlled, and non-bloc state. The most unstable phase of this plan was completed in 2014-2015. Now the scenario is realized with more precision and speed. Kiev can arrange at least a hundred provocations a month, fire missiles over Crimea, the infiltration of saboteurs, and kidnappings — but she is unable to change anything anymore. While all provocations are recorded, summed, and counted. For them, the responsible persons will have to pay in full. In such moments, a rush is futile.
Any situation can be used profitably. For example, the becoming-complicated relations with Ukraine were allowed to finally tear the Russian military industrial complex from Ukrainian enterprises. This was necessary for a long time. My acquaintance-experts demanded this since the early 2000’s. Ukraine had long been wasn’t considered as a reliable partner and ally on the basis of the duplicity and corruption of the political elites in Kiev. Nevertheless, the Russian defense industry was closely related to the Ukrainian one. Because too much money was tied to the contracts. The aggressive and inappropriate behavior of Ukraine in 2014 allowed Russia to get rid of the Ukrainian “suitcase without a handle”. Now “Motor-Sich” and “Yuzhmash”, and dozens of Ukrainian enterprises are doomed. Russia no longer needs them and will never need them. Contracts for energy carriers and contracts for the defense industry are very fragile spheres of activity. They should handled be very carefully and responsibly. If you lose them once, you can consider them lost forever.
The situation in Ukraine has allowed Russia to show the adjacent states on the territory of the former Soviet Union the consequences of cooperation with the United States. And this lesson was learned by everyone. The technology of “Maidan”, so effectively realized in recent years, was evaluated by everyone, and is considered as dangerous and detrimental to the financial elites of states. So, no one will flirt with this technology, and as a result it will be more expensive.
The situation in Ukraine, as a showcase of American foreign policy, has given Russia more active rapprochement with the countries of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. In this, Ukraine proved to be very useful for the Russian Federation.
Now, a logistical isolation of Ukraine is ongoing.
- Railway to bypass Ukraine from August 15th, 2017;
- The Kerch bridge. By the end of 2018 will be the launch of the automobile part of the bridge, at the end of 2019 — the railway one.
From 2019 it is planned to switch to other branches of the gas transportation system, bypassing Ukraine. On the “North” and “Turkish” streams.
That’s why there is simply no need for a land corridor to Crimea in the near future. There will be in 10-15 years. Moreover, the regional elite of Kharkov, Zaporozhye, and Kherson will beg Russia themselves. But during the construction of the railway and the Kerch bridge the multiplier effect is being implemented, which will only benefit the Russian economy.
While military actions for sure wouldn’t be beneficial.
Someone may try to use the argument that Ukraine will raise a Russophobic generation, that on the border with Russia will live 30 million people who hate Russians. Well, this is the problem of these 30 million. If they want to survive, to provide their children with a decent future, they will love Russia enormously. Here natural selection will work – Russophobes and Ukrainian Nazis simply slide into poverty and cannot produce offspring. And all this, most importantly, without any active participation of Russia. Natural processes. What is the population now in Russophobic, semi-fascist Baltic States, and what’s the birth/death rate? Russophobia is a very bad strategy for survival. Comprehension of this awaits many, many people.
And at the same time Russia is always open for those willing to appreciate Russian culture, to respect the laws of Russia, and work diligently. For them there will be prosperity and a decent future for their children, and a belonging to the great Russian State.
On the basis of the LPR and the DPR the pro-Russian enclave is created, which after the destruction of vertical ties between Kiev and the regions, will have the most efficient army and the most efficient secret service on the territory of the former Ukraine. Close production and economic integration with Russia will make the LPR and the DPR a showcase for the rest of Ukraine, so that everyone can compare how Russophobia finishes, and what friendship with Russia brings. In front of us is the liberation of the LDPR from Ukrainian occupation to the extent of administrative boundaries and an “option of a cauldron with a valve” for the disarmament of the UAF.
Everything is implemented on time. For maximum benefit and security of the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin is responsible for 146 million citizens. And he does not risk the lives of Russians, their future, and the future of their children. And this is absolutely correct — always the highest priority should be given to protecting the citizens, and not to solving the internal problems of neighbouring independent states. No wonder in the West, among ordinary people and even politicians, there is a growing respect and admiration for the Russian President.
Putin’s Cunning Plan is being implemented every day. Calmly, pragmatically, relentlessly. And yet it all turns out in time.
“You asked me, your humble servant ‒ friend or not a friend? Relations between States are built a little differently, not like relations between people. I’m not a friend, not the bride, and not the groom, I am the President of the Russian Federation. 146 million people – these people have their interests, I am obliged to defend them.”
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
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