According to the media, the contract is for five years. Given that we do not know the behind-the-scenes agreements on this deal and are unlikely to ever know, it is possible only to wonder what really happened.
The volume of transit stipulated by the agreement is 65 billion cubic meters in the first year and 40 billion in the following years. If you look at the dynamics of transit volumes before 2014, it turns out that this is one-third lower than the lowest value in 2014, and twice lower than in 2018.
As it seems to me, Ukraine has simply been left with small amount of funds to maintain its trousers so that while a visa regime between the countries is being developed (from 2020 departure from Ukraine to Russia is only possible through a passport) it does not turn into a wild field like Somalia, and tens of millions of villagers have not poured into the Russian Federation and other countries, putting us in the position of Europe with its migrants. And Ukrainian migrants are already surely leading in such industries as prostitution and have gained serious positions in the drug trade.
And closer to 2025, when Turkish Stream, “Nord Stream-2“, and Power of Siberia will be working at full capacity, the next Ukrainian president will sew their trousers with additional width in the ass and go to the Kremlin to bow down.
The example of the Baltic States shows that Russia uses healing starvation to straighten out brains consistently, without drastic movements. Years have passed, Ust-Luga has appeared, the transit of goods is confidently withdrawing from the Baltics, and cockscombs confidently grow upwards on the tops of the Baltic tigers. No one will reject Ust-Luga, even if all Lithuanian Nazis stick stars on top of their SS badges and publicly repent. Just like how nobody will invest in the Ukrainian gas transit system, which over the years will become definitively decrepit, and it will simply not be needed taking into account the duplicate routes.
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