About Russia’s Strategic Withdrawal From Snake Island

NEW – June 30, 2022

Apparently, it was decided to leave Snake Island at night in order to save personnel and equipment.

After the transfer of the French CAESAR self-propelled guns and the “Tochka-U” operational-tactical missile system to the Odessa region, the density of artillery fire from the Odessa region increased many times.

Two days ago, we described in detail the tactics of the UAF to deplete the air defence of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the island.

“If we assess the nature of the shelling in recent days, it can be noted that the UAF is acting according to proven tactics against the Russian garrison on the island.

At night, at least one Bayraktar drone starts operating out of the reach of air defence systems. It tracks what is happening on the island and marks targets, primarily anti-aircraft missile systems.

After that, the barrel artillery and MLRS begin to methodically strike. For the most part, this is undirected fire. But the task of the first strikes is not to hit objects, but to force air defence units to spend ammunition on flying projectiles.

The next stage, which begins closer to morning, already includes targeted strikes in the hope of fatiguing Russian servicemen on the island due to constant tension at night. And it can last up to several hours. And Bayraktar visually observes this all the time, noticing the nature of the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and looking for weaknesses in defence.

At the same time, the activity of using artillery systems and MLRS in this direction has changed for everyone. If a couple of days ago the shelling was carried out with low frequency (residents of the Odessa region talked about breaks of 30 minutes), now the fire is more intense with smaller intervals (up to 5 minutes).

The initial 30-minute gap could be attributed to an outdated version of the American M777 howitzers, which takes quite a long time to recharge. Now there is an opinion, including in the Ukrainian information field, about the use of newer weapons systems, including the British M270 MLRS or the French CAESAR self-propelled guns.

Anyway, the shelling will continue, and they will increase incrementally. The goal of the Ukrainian forces is to deprive the garrison of air defence and ammunition, and only after that to carry out the landing. And in order to prevent the replenishment of warehouses on the island, another strikes on gas production platforms at the Odessa field are possible.”

Well, the tactic is effective. Today, physically controlling the island is tantamount to suicide.

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The next stage of the battle for Snake Island is the destruction of the naval and air assault of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the approaches in the best traditions of the principle “if we can’t have it, no-one can”.

Military historian Yury Knutov:

“So far, there is no question of freeing Odessa from the Nazi regime. The island is small. As a matter of fact, there are not so many shelters there for the personnel [of the Russian Armed Forces]. Now Ukraine has modern MLRS HIMARS, which make it possible to fire at this island with high accuracy, because [individual guidance missiles are used]. In addition, the coast itself is mined, so it is also wrong to talk about an amphibious operation. Moreover, Ukraine received Harpoon missiles, and France promised even more advanced missiles [Exocet], which fly up to the target at an altitude of only two meters. Therefore, an amphibious operation would be associated with serious risks and losses.”

According to him, the issue of the liberation of Odessa can be considered after the Russian Armed Forces realise their goals in Donbass.


Rybar

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