NEW – August 14, 2022
An interesting point: the main actions in the active sectors of the front (after Mariupol) have been carried out for several months only by units of the LPR and DPR, plus Chechen units and the “Wagner” PMCs help them. The Russian Army is represented only by artillery, MLRS, air defence, aviation and sappers. What have they been preparing for so much time?
Here is what a military expert, captain of the 1st rank in reserve Vladimir Gundarov says about the further course and timing of the end of the special operation in Ukraine:
If to compare the maps of the special military operation for July 12 and August 12, it seems that there were not too big changes in the contact line of the opposing sides.
At least, not the kind we would like to see.
But here we must understand that the united allied forces of the Russian Federation, the LPR and the DPR are fighting in Ukraine not just with Ukrainian nationalists, but with consolidated NATO forces, because every metre of the advance of our troops to the west is given with great difficulty.
Despite the huge resistance of the nationalists, we continue to liberate the Ukrainian land from this infection metre by metre. Only after intense and dense artillery fire do our troops move forward to sweep the territory.
The further task of the allied forces is: on the northern flank – the defeat of the nationalist group in the Kharkov region. In the central part – the defeat of the Donetsk group. And on the southern flank – the crossing of the administrative border of the Kherson region with the subsequent encirclement of Nikolaev, or an offensive in the direction of Krivoy Rog.
The immediate task of the allied forces in the Donetsk region is the liberation of Soledar, Artemovsk, Seversk and access to the third and last line of defence of the nationalists: Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka-Dzerzhinsk. Any of the three cities – Soledar, Artemovsk or Seversk – opens the way for the allied troops to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. There is no doubt that with the defeat of the third line of defence, the Donetsk nationalist grouping will cease to exist.
When will this happen? Battles are already taking place today on the approaches to Soledar, Artemovsk and Seversk, or on their outskirts. So by the Independence Day on August 24, Kiev risks getting another “gift”.
After the defeat of the third line of defence, the path for the allied troops will open up to the Dnieper along the entire contact line. And the liberation of this part of the left-bank Ukraine will go much faster, at least due to the peculiarities of the terrain and the absence of a well-fortified line of resistance.
How the further actions of our forces will develop depends on the plans of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the operational situation. Where the enemy is weaker, our troops will be transferred there – to the northern or southern flank.
I think that after the allied forces reach the Dnieper, there will be a turning point in the operation. It is possible that Belarusian units will cross the Ukrainian border in the north to prevent the capture of the western regions of Ukraine by Polish “volunteers”. Now, according to Ukrainian intelligence, about 20 battalion tactical groups with a total of 15,000 volunteers have already been formed in Belarus, who have signed a contract specifically to participate in their own on the territory of Ukraine.
Whether this is true or not, of course, no one will say for sure. But the threat from the north remains for Kiev, and this circumstance helps us a lot. At least Kiev is forced to keep part of its troops in the north, distracting them from the defence of other areas.
It seems to me that after the defeat of the Donetsk grouping, the centre of hostilities will move to the Nikolaev region. This must be done primarily to protect and ensure the security of Crimea. Nikolaev itself has already been turned into a fortress. The nationalists have clung to the city with their teeth and will not give it up just like that. But we have to complete this task by the end of the year, and the sooner the better, at least we need to have time until the United States has supplied Ukraine with long–range missiles for HIMARS with a firing range of up to 300 km.
After the loss of Nikolaev, Kiev will probably want to get a break and try to delay time with the help of negotiations. This is a well-known trick of all outsiders. However, everything will finally become clear in winter when we see how Europe will pass through the winter. Then it will definitely be possible to talk about the actual timing of the end of the special operation.
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