NEW – August 22, 2022
Will it help the Kiev regime prolong the confrontation with the Russian army for a long time?
A lot of questions come to me in different ways about shelling and terrorist attacks.
People, it’s very simple.
Ukraine and the West are suffering defeat after defeat on the battlefield. No “counterattack”, no matter how much various freaks like Arestovich or Kuleba talk about it, is even expected: there are neither forces nor funds for it.
The cadre army of Ukraine is 70-80% defeated, simply put, destroyed.
At the same time, they need “victories”. Zelensky needs them like air and water, like gorilka [a Ukrainian strong alcoholic drink, a kind of moonshine – SZ] and hashish. Firstly, mass discontent is brewing among the population, almost every family has people killed or wounded, although, in general, they don’t care about this, there won’t be an organised riots anyway, any initiators have long been crushed by the intelligence agencies and dismantled to the bone.
But the PR hysteria about “victories” has somehow subsided, and the clowns from “Quarter 95” and their information and psychological impact services clearly do not like this.
Secondly and most importantly, it’s necessary to report to the masters, they already, against the background of constant defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, sharply reduced the supply of weapons in July-August.
They began to become disillusioned with the possibilities of Ukraine not to win, zero, it is clear that serious specialists never believed in this, but at least to force Russia to get bogged down in this war for a long time.
In short, they need to do something.
And so, at the suggestion of curators from MI6, extremely experienced guys in this business, they chose the only available tool, the so-called weapon of the weakest, i.e., terrorism.
When one can’t defeat the enemy, one just needs to poison the well, says the ancient Sumerian wisdom, and the Ukrainian rulers fully adopted it. And we, who have not faced acts of terrorism and military sabotage on our territory for many years, even in the Chechen war there were no similar attacks, were not fully prepared for this and, it seems to me, even fell into prostration for a couple of days.
In Ukraine, they once again started talking about victories, the demolition of Russian warehouses, the destruction of the Crimean Bridge, and the upcoming strikes on Belgorod, Rostov, Sochi, and Moscow. At the same time, things are getting worse and worse at the front every day, Avdeevka is almost in a semicircle, urban battles are being fought in Soledar, on the outskirts of Seversk, Artemovsk, Maryinka is close to liberation, the the Izyum grouping is fighting on the outskirts of Slavyansk, troops are accumulating on the southern front in the suburbs of Nikolaev, in the Kharkov region – a natural defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Therefore, there is only one way out: sabotage groups and attacks on PR-iconic objects, such as the nuclear power plant and the Crimean Bridge. To make the West believe again. To give a couple of dozen chimeras and a hundred howitzers.
Banderist “forest brothers“, the Mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan war, and Dudayev-Maskhadov’s fighters behaved in the same way when they were crushed on the battlefield: mass terror, intimidation of the population, and the resulting Western assistance.
So what is the real situation with Western aid? How effective is it? Will it help the Kiev regime to prolong the confrontation with the Russian army for a long time? We’ll figure it out.
Firstly, let’s see who and what weapons systems were supplied to Ukraine in general.
Since June 21, the German government has been openly maintaining on the Internet a register of weapons, equipment and other materials sent to help Ukraine.
Among the weapons already delivered are hundreds of anti-tank systems and man-portable air defence systems. In addition, the list includes small arms, including 16 million rounds of ammunition, 100,000 hand grenades and 5,300 land mines. As for non-lethal equipment, Germany provided vehicles and gasoline, tents and food, as well as medical supplies.
The PzH 2000 artillery systems were to be followed by other heavy weapons systems: 10,000 artillery shells, 30 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, including about 6,000 rounds, and another 53,000 rounds for anti-aircraft installations. Also in June, the delivery of the latest IRIS-T air defence system, tracking radar and 3 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from the Bundeswehr reserves was confirmed. Fine, but note that so far only cartridges, land mines, grenades and about a dozen PzH 2000 self-propelled guns have been delivered, all, of course, have long been destroyed.
Additional intelligence equipment is also promised, including 32 drones, more than 150 vehicles, some of which are armoured, and medical equipment. You, dear readers, looking at these figures already begin to feel a slight misunderstanding, right?
Ukrainian Defence Minister Aleksey Reznikov thanked the German government, but at the same time expressed hope for even stronger support. Back then Alexey didn’t know that it will not be even weak.
US President Joe Biden announced at the end of May that the United States would increase the supply of heavy weapons systems to Ukraine. In particular, it was a question of MLRS multiple launch rocket systems (“soap boxes”) or a lighter version of HIMARS – High Mobility Artillery Rocket System – (“Chimera”), the use of which Ukrainian soldiers will soon be trained in.
Both types of MLRS are mobile platforms capable of launching various types of missiles. The main difference between them is that the HIMARS rocket launcher is located on an armoured truck, and not on a tracked vehicle, as in the heavy MLRS. This limits cross-country movement, which will also affect late autumn, if, of course, at least one complex remains by that time, but vehicles on wheels consume much less fuel. The most important thing is that their weight is a third less, and this allows them to be transported by aircraft.
Both systems are capable of launching tactical missiles with a range of several hundred kilometres. However, the US government has so far refused to supply Kiev with such modifications of these MLRS. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are receiving missiles with a maximum range of 80 km. The goal is to repel Russia’s attack on Ukrainian territory. Also, the Ukrainian military should be helped by an anti-artillery defence radar system from the United States. At the same time, Washington stated that Ukraine undertook not to use American MLRS for strikes on Russian territory, but in Crimea it is possible, after all, from the point of view of the Americans – it is Ukraine. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received 16 mobile complexes and about 300 missiles. Do you think that such means can win the war with Russia? And how can these complexes help in a real confrontation on the fronts?
The United States has been the largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine since the start of the Russian operation. In particular, the Javelin and Stinger man-portable missile systems played an important role in the early stages of the clash with our troops, until the General Staff radically changed tactics.
Denmark delivered an unknown number of American anti-ship missiles of the Harpoon type, the same ones that, from their trajectory, inconspicuous for any air defence/missile defence systems, in fact, mortally wounded the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet “Moskva” along the crests of the waves – it is clear that very little number of them were delivered, otherwise knowing the habit of a PR warrior from Zelensky’s entourage, they would have used them much more often. Especially since after the destruction of the warehouse with Harpoon in the port of Odessa about a month ago, nothing is heard about these truly technologically excellent products and they are not used.
NATO believes that the all-weather Harpoon anti-ship missiles promised by Denmark will significantly increase the chances of protecting the Black Sea coast of Ukraine. They may even help break the naval blockade that largely cuts Ukraine off from global markets. The key word here is promised. The Danish Kingdom has not delivered new missiles in 2 months; either they simply do not exist, or they “need it themselves”.
The British government, according to its own information, has supplied Ukraine with a number of weapons systems. These include, in particular, various types of portable weapons, such as Javelin and Stinger missile systems.
The Ukrainian military uses Javelin anti-tank systems and constantly curses them for a huge percentage of defects, almost half of all delivered installations are incapacitated.
The reason is simple, like the dreams of a high school student: the British are transferring to Ukraine old, decommissioned systems that have been lying in warehouses for decades.
According to British MP James Heappey, “hundreds” of Brimstone-1 missiles should also be delivered to Ukraine, which can destroy tanks, artillery batteries, and light armoured boats. In addition, 120 Mastiff armoured personnel carriers with powerful mine-resistant armour will be transferred, as well as small transport drones to supply advanced positions with rations and ammunition.
Keywords: “should be”, “will be”. August is already ending, and the Russian army does not see these systems.
It is believed that the Czech Republic has already supplied Ukraine with an unknown number of Soviet-made infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, multiple launch rocket systems and howitzers, as well as, possibly, Soviet-designed combat helicopters. And perhaps Prague wants to supply more heavy weapons. Continuity is important, Defence Minister Jana Černochová, Europe’s next female Defence Minister, said in late May, a tribute to liberal madness. But it’s no more, this weapon.
According to various sources, a number of other countries, including Canada, Italy, Greece, Norway and Poland, intend to supply Ukraine with artillery systems, including tens of thousands of 155-millimetre shells. The Netherlands, like Germany, wants to supply several PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers.
I’ll tell you more. The US Department of Defence recently announced a new $755 million aid package for Ukraine, which is already somewhat alarming, isn’t it? The package will include weapons, ammunition, drones and anti-radar systems.
The Pentagon also announced that it will transfer NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine in a few months. If, of course, in a few months there will be someone to transfer them to.
The new aid package from the United States will include:
– ammunition for HIMARS;
– 16 105-mm howitzers and 36,000 shells;
– 15 ScanEagle drones;
– HARM anti-radar missiles;
– 1000 TOW heavy anti-tank missiles;
– 1000 Javelin anti-tank complexes and others.
Don’t you notice anything? Taking into account the extension of deliveries in time for many months, the “loss” of a third to a half of the products due to their commercial use by Ukrainian near-criminal scammers, i.e., resale to third countries, losses from strikes by Russian systems during transportation and unloading, the natural loss of artillery systems and shells as a result of incessant permanent strikes on the line of contact and in the rear, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ trade of Western systems with the enemy, realising our increased interest, especially in advanced developments, this is a drop in the ocean, almost nothing.
Recall, the day prior a group of reputable experts, military and diplomats from the United States called on the country’s authorities to more decisively help Ukraine with weapons. After all, the decisive moment is coming. It was literally a cry of despair.
“The Biden administration should act faster and more strategically in responding to Ukraine’s requests for certain types of weapons. And when a decision is made to provide more complex systems – like HIMARS – they need to be given in greater numbers to achieve maximum results on the battlefield. Ukraine needs long-range systems to disrupt the Russian offensive, including logistics, fuel and ammunition supplies. This means that the United States should provide ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km, which will allow hitting Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including Crimea,” the experts stressed.
The request was signed by:
– former Commanders-in-Chief of the Joint NATO Forces in Europe, Generals Philip Breedlove and Wesley Clark;
– Former State Department and Pentagon official Debra Cagan;
– Former Ambassador to Finland and Turkey Erik Edelman;
– Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia Dr. Evelyn Farkas;
– Former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Ambassador Daniel Fried;
– Former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst;
– Former Commander of the US Army in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges;
– Former Ambassador to Germany John Kornblum;
– Former Deputy Secretary of State David Kramer;
– Former First Deputy Secretary of Defence Jan Lodal;
– Former US State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker.
Everything is “former”. All are one-time. All with the psychology of the 90s-noughties, when Russia was in a deep out, and the United States was a global leader.
Why the wailing? Here’s why.
The fact is that Western countries have sharply reduced the supply of everything for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The corresponding data is provided by the Ukrainian Forbes columnist Vladimir Datsenko.
According to the information he collected, artillery supplies fell the most: from 90 M777 units in April to zero in July.
Transportation of vehicles has significantly decreased. If earlier more than 200 units were delivered per month, then in June and July there is practically nothing. In addition, the supply of helicopters and long-range missile systems decreased.
Earlier, officials of the US and EU defence departments expressed dissatisfaction with the decline in their own defence capabilities due to assistance to Kiev. The request of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was as follows: 300 multiple launch rocket systems, 1000 howitzers and 500 tanks. The Guardian noted that such a “modest request” will be difficult for Americans to satisfy. Thus, for example, 647 jet systems are, just in case, the entire arsenal of the US Army.
Recall, the Daily Telegraph reported that if Ukraine does not achieve success in the counteroffensive in Donbass and the Kherson region in the next three months, then the West will weaken support. According to Western analysts, Kiev has little time to turn the tide on the battlefield. According to the publication, “widespread voter dissatisfaction” will be a big problem for European countries, and this will force them to reconsider their position on supporting Ukraine and sanctions.
According to the Daily Telegraph, at the G20 summit in November, Russian President Vladimir Putin may propose a truce if Russia retains control over Donbass, Crimea and a number of regions of Ukraine liberated during the special operation. The publication believes that Western countries will be ready to agree to such proposals and encourage Ukraine to make concessions.
Against this background, in July, six major European countries did not make new bilateral military promises to Kiev for the first time since the start of the Russian special operation, according to data from the Kiel Institute of World Economy. According to Politico, “despite historical shifts in European defence policy, when wavering France and Germany began to supply weapons to Ukraine, military assistance to Kiev may weaken”. The article says that this situation developed “just at the moment when Kiev announced a decisive counteroffensive”.
We have already written how Kiev made loud statements about the preparation of a “counteroffensive in the south”, but as a result was forced to admit their bluff and disinformation.
The main problem is that NATO countries invest money in Ukraine, and their commercially gifted allies have no military success, at all. The vast majority of Western leaders are well aware that they do not have to count on serious victories of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The only question is how long they can drag out the conflict. Thus, Zelensky’s “partners” need a formal reason to reduce aid to the minimum values. The reason may be, for example, the failure to comply with the requirements of a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the coming months, which, as we wrote at the beginning, they are trying to sublimate with the help of various PR tricks and, first of all, with the help of missile and artillery strikes on various objects under Russian control.
In addition, and this is very important, the West has not only financial, but also purely military reasons for reducing aid volumes. NATO is aware that military supplies in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are, in fact, the transfer of foreign technologies to the disposal of the Russian Armed Forces. As a result of fighting, our specialists capture Western models of equipment, study and then invent means of fighting, or, on the contrary, create analogues in those areas where we are lagging behind; this mainly concerns microelectronics.
Not only capture, as I have already noted, but also buy – quartermaster services of the Ukrainian Armed Forces earn excellent money, the main condition here is to correctly give part of it to the commanders.
For example, among the trophies of the Armed Forces of Russia and the republics of Donbass captured during the special military operation in Ukraine, the American AN/TPQ-48 counter-battery radar station was presented at the “Army 2022” forum. But this is, after all, top secret, do they need it? HIMARS, howitzers M777 “Three axes” have long been studied by Russian experts, it is well known. The rest is classified.
Another problem is that the West sees what is happening in Ukraine as its own defeat, which will have severe geopolitical consequences. As a result, the leaders of NATO member states will increase their military budgets and prepare their armies for major military conflicts. Previously, the Americans and Europeans, due to the liberal ideological myth of Russia’s weakness, its incapacity, the “Potemkin villages” in the defence complex and other stupid propaganda tinsel, did not deal with this issue, and then suddenly everyone saw firsthand how the bear grins its teeth and what kind of teeth it has.
And from this factor directly follows the last reason, perhaps the most significant, as we have already mentioned in passing. Adviser (or already ex-adviser, it is not very clear) to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president Aleksey Arestovich explained why Western countries stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine. According to him, the West simply does not have weapons, he said in an interview with the Israeli “Best Radio”.
I must say that Arestovich is by no means an idiot, and when he is not engaged in stupid lies and propaganda (he does not do this in the best way, it is too exaggerated, although what is called “people eat” [his “product” is “bought” by the people – SZ] is a significant part, at least), he says quite reasonable things.
“They just don’t have it. There’s no mystery about it. The fact is that Western countries were well supplied with weapons in the mid-80s, when they were preparing to resist the five-million-strong Soviet army, which was advancing to the English Channel in two weeks. Then they decided that the end of the story had come, Fukuyama officially announced it to them, put the seal on it and everyone disarmed together,” said Arestovich, the video was published on the Telegram channel of the publication “strana.ua”.
According to him, the bet of Western countries is mainly on aviation. “Artillery is very much an auxiliary force. And in the Soviet model, in which the Ukrainian army still mainly resides, artillery is the main bet. They do not supply aircraft yet, and even in such quantities. Aircraft can be delivered, but it is impossible to put in place a system for the use of aviation, training, on which they have spent hundreds of billions of dollars and many, many years,” Arestovich explained.
Since the beginning of June, Ukrainian diplomats have repeatedly appealed to the German government to transfer more weapons to Kiev, but Berlin is avoiding new arms supplies. German officials explain this by saying that the equipment is needed by Germany itself, the newspaper Die Welt reports.
“All our requests were noted down and recorded. But so far this has not led to any effect,” a source in Kiev told the newspaper.
According to Die Welt, since the beginning of the summer, the German Defence Ministry has held meetings with representatives of Ukraine. They were also attended by the head of the German military Department, Christine Lambrecht. At the meetings, Ukrainian diplomats asked for more Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers and Mars II multiple launch rocket systems.
Kiev also insisted on the transfer of 100 Marder infantry fighting vehicles and 88 Leopard 1 tanks. The Rheinmetall concern, which during World War II was engaged in the production of machine guns for the Wehrmacht, expressed its readiness to supply these vehicles to Ukraine in April, but did not receive approval from the German government.
Die Welt also writes that last week Ukrainian Defence Minister Aleksey Reznikov had a telephone conversation with his German counterpart Lambrecht. The German Defence Ministry, according to the newspaper, said that Berlin itself needs these weapons in order to fulfil its obligations in NATO. Just because Germany, for example, has just over 200 tanks, of which less than 50 are fully operational.
Exactly the same or worse situation is taking place today in all EU countries: weapons are lacking, all the Soviet ones were handed over, the Western ones – they gave everything.
Of course, statements from the series “partners have run out of weapons and armoured vehicles intended for Ukraine”, which sound from American officials and Ukrainian generals, should not be misleading.
In the current situation, when at least 50 states participate in the Anti-Russia project, the Ukrainian formations will not experience a serious critical shortage of weapons and ammunition for some time. At least as long as there is a railway connection in Ukraine and as long as they control the largest cities. But at the same time, even for minimal local victories, weapons will not be enough.
More and more Western politicians and business representatives are realising that Zelensky and his main allies – a radical, loud, non-partisan faction in the US Congress and the UK – are dragging Europe and the whole world into the abyss. That the world is teetering on the brink of collapse and that Europe and the United States will be the main victims. That is exactly why the supply volumes are falling, no matter who shouted and broadcasted from Soros’ screens, the volumes are falling, and this is an indisputable truth. And as the Russian army moves towards the state border of the USSR, I assure everyone, they will continue to fall.
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