Attack on All Fronts?

After the outcome of the all-Russian referendum on the Constitution of the Russian Federation, extremely unsuccessful for the Anglo-Saxon west, the shift of the centre of gravity of its anti-Russia geopolitics to the strategy of direct and massive military pressure against Russia seems quite natural and expected.

Spontaneously aggravating, for no apparent reason, military-political crises always suggest the behind-the-scenes nature of such “practical jokes”. The Armenian-Azerbaijani enmity over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been going on for over 30 years. But, based only on the local situation, this in no way explains the current outbreak of military confrontation. Moreover, it began not in Karabakh itself, but directly on the line of the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is not typical at all.

All this, to put it mildly, is not very good. Moreover, the parties do not show any particular desire to quickly resolve the still very limited conflict and have already moved on to strategic threats. Like the bombing of a reservoir in Azerbaijan and, especially, a missile strike on a nuclear power plant in Armenia. That can cause a disaster comparable in scale to the Chernobyl one.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, President of Russia Vladimir Putin announced a sudden and very large-scale inspection of the troops.

“The inspection will affect the troops of the Southern and Western Military Districts, the Airborne Forces, and the marines of the Northern and Pacific Fleets. Shoigu said that 56 tactical exercises will be held during the inspection. It will be attended by about 150,000 soldiers, more than 26,000 pieces of equipment, 414 aircraft, and 106 ships and vessels. The exercises will involve 35 training grounds and training fields, as well as 17 marine training grounds in the Black and Caspian Seas. The Ministry of Defense clarified that the inspection is carried out for the assessment of the level of training of the army, as well as for the decision on the admission of large formations and military units to the ‘Caucasus-2020’ exercise”. (source)

And although the official version of the reasons for the start of the sudden inspection does not contain a single word regarding its connection with the events taking place in the Transcaucasus, their complete coincidence in time speaks for itself.

The situation is indeed extremely difficult and potentially dangerous. In the sense that the possibilities for localising this conflict, especially taking into account the likelihood of the practical implementation of the already voiced threats, are as low as never before. It can be understood that it is precisely Moscow’s great concern about the possible further development of events that explains the urgent measures taken to deploy troops in the framework of the announced exercises.

Russia, even with all its desire, simply cannot stand aside if there is a real danger of bombing of a nuclear power plant. In addition, Armenia is an official military-political ally of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization of the CIS countries. And, consequently, Yerevan and Moscow are bound by quite definite mutual obligations, including a military one.

On the other hand, present-day Azerbaijan is quite unambiguously oriented towards Turkey as its main military-political partner in the region. And towards the United States, as a geopolitical patron.

In other words, Russia’s direct “entry into the game” can lead to the activation of Turkey, including the form of direct military intervention on the side of Baku. This intervention, undoubtedly, will be supported by Washington, which not only sleeps and sees, but is also working diligently to create an increasing number of situations in which relations between Russia and Turkey would be irreparably damaged, or even better, put on the brink of direct war. Meanwhile, the situation in Transcaucasia for the implementation of such an American plan contributes even more and better than the situation in Libya, where Moscow and Ankara, at the very least, find a common language. And in Libya, where Turkish interests contradict Arab and European interests too strongly, which strongly restrains the United States from fomenting a purely anti-Russian war there.

In Transcaucasia, all these restraining moments do not exist. But there is a potentially acute conflict, which is very easy to turn into a full-scale war and drag Russia into it in the most direct way.

I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to believe that the current aggravation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, in this sense, is directly related to the results of the recent all-Russian referendum, which is popularly called the referendum in support of Putin.

After the head of Russia won a clear victory during this vote, the west probably came to the conclusion that counting on the independent success of the internal fifth column in the Russian Federation is completely hopeless. And this “column” will have at least minimal chances only if the destabilisation of Russia proceeds, simultaneously, not only along the internal, but also along the external contour. The best way to do this is to incite all kinds of wars along the entire perimeter of the borders of the Russian Federation.

In this regard, attention is drawn to the immediate, as if prepared in advance (I personally have no doubt that this is the case), reaction of the Kiev regime:

“’Ukraine, in response to the planned Russian military exercises ‘Caucasus-2020’, is organising the command-staff exercises ‘United Efforts-2020′, for which it intends to involve NATO countries,’ said the Defense Minister of Ukraine Andrey Taran in the Rada. ‘Taking into account the accumulation of [RF] troops under the pretext of preparing the ‘Caucasus-2020’ exercises, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan at the same time, in the last decade of September, to hold a strategic command-staff exercise ‘United Efforts – 2020′,’ reports TASS, citing Taran. According to him, Kiev expects that NATO countries will also take part in them.” (source)

It would be very strange if the Kiev junta, which for many years has dreamed of drawing NATO directly into a military confrontation with the Russian Federation, did not use such a splendid pretext. Moreover, I cannot completely rule out that Kiev has already been assigned a certain role in the upcoming military-strategic rally, which is not limited to any particular region and is nothing more than a general plan for a radical increase in military-political pressure on Russia in all possible strategic directions.

It was the danger of the implementation of this plan and the high probability that it is actually being prepared that the author of these lines wrote about back in early April of this year:

“If we do not try to reduce everything that happens near the Russian borders only to the fragmented logic of separate and supposedly unrelated facts and events lying on the surface, then it is quite possible to admit the existence of a much more extensive, complex and dangerous for Russia military-political puzzle.

 The general purpose of all the constituent parts of this design is the timely and phased inclusion in the implementation of the integrated plan of a large non-nuclear regional war against Russia. Let me emphasise once again – it will be a non-nuclear war, because, according to the west’s plan, it should be waged on our ancestral territory, which will be very difficult for Russia to destroy together with the population. And expanding it to the scale of an unlimited war with the entire NATO bloc is clearly a matter with no prospects.

This, in my opinion, is the plan inspired by the west, the practical implementation of which will involve the capabilities of the pro-west puppet states of Eastern Europe, as well as Turkey, which is finally drawn into the neo-imperial aggression and the seizure of ‘historical territories’. 

The stocks of conventional weapons and military equipment from NATO arsenals stored in advance in the future theatre of operations should also be taken into account.”

Of course, all of the above should not be taken as the only possible option for further developments. However, there is no reason to rule it out as completely improbable. The war of the Anglo-Saxon West against a reviving Russia is an indisputable fact of today. And in this confrontation, which has a global scale, any goals and methods can be used that the west considers optimal for solving the final problem, which has not changed for many centuries and comes down, ultimately, to the complete destruction of not only Russia as a state, but of Russian civilisation as such. For it is too dangerous for the world domination of the west due to its unique potential and too “incorrigible” spirit to put a yoke on it.

Yury Selivanov

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