Belarus will not remain as it is today, even if the current President Aleksandr Lukashenko remains in power. This was stated on the air of the Internet channel “PolitWera” by political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko.
According to Ishchenko, Russia will no longer tolerate the subsidisation of Belarus, so Lukashenko will face a point-blank question – either he really integrates with the Russian Federation, or he will remain one-on-one with the Maidanists and the collapsing economy.
“Even if he turns 180 degrees and begins active integration with Russia, the Belarusian statehood will, in principle, remain. Perhaps even for a long period. Of course, in this case, the reforms will be carried out in a sparing mode for Belarusians. But all the same, Belarus will not exist in the form it exists now.
Simply because it is an absolutely subsidised economy. If it was able to be self-sufficient, then it would be possible to look at it calmly and say: ‘well okay, let’s do this’. But since this is an absolutely subsidised economy, sooner or later the question arises that something should be changed in the conservatoire.
It is necessary to somehow get out, best of all for profitability, but first and foremost, at least for self-sufficiency. Moreover, Belarus certainly has such potential. Then Lukashenka will face a very difficult choice. I don’t envy him right now, but in a way he’s driven himself into this corner, trying to avoid having to choose earlier.
But, nevertheless, there is no escape from this – Belarus can no longer exist in the form in which it existed. This Maidan, which has just begun there and which Lukashenko is experiencing more or less successfully, is just the beginning, because Lukashenko has already created Maidan forces in society and they will certainly exist in the future. If Belarus remains the same as it is now, they will grow stronger and stronger quickly in the future, and the government will quickly weaken.
And it will not take much time for the second, third, or fourth Maidan to finally succeed and Lukashenko will not be able to save Belarusian statehood,” Ishchenko said.
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