Washington, after President Vladimir Zelensky’s withdrawal of Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Valery Chaly, refused to accept his third replacement. Experts believe that the reason lies in the so-called Joe Biden case: Kiev’s unwillingness to give Trump compromising evidence on the former Vice President and main White House rival in the upcoming presidential election.
And therefore, the Ukrainian topic is again actively promoted in the American media and government offices – more than a year before the vote, there is a serious fight between the current head of state – Republican Donald Trump – and the main candidate from the Democratic Party camp – Joe Biden. The latter was marked and disgraced in Ukraine during the reign of his proxies and mentee Peter Poroshenko. From sitting at the head of a meeting with the participation of senior Ukrainian officials to the “employment” of his drug addict son. In addition, it was Biden who strongly insisted on firing the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Viktor Shokin. The American himself boasted that in 2015, during a visit to Kiev, he openly intervened in Ukraine’s internal affairs: blackmailing Poroshenko with a $1 billion loan refusal if the “son of a bitch” Shokin was not fired.
The Prosecutor General Shokin did not please his transatlantic master when he initiated a number of criminal cases against the gas company “Burisma“, the supervisory board of which includes Biden’s son and the stepson of the former Secretary of State John Kerry. These 2 “employees” received for their “work” $3.5 million, which is unambiguously regarded by Biden Sr. opponents as a payment for the State Department’s protection.
And here the envoys of Trump, who, if not to drown the main competitor in the presidential race, then at least thoroughly soak him, became frequent in Kiev. In addition to the much-talking, but not decisive clerk Kurt Volker, the US Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland was added (who, probably, the owner of the White House trusts much more than the “special envoy”). And even during a telephone conversation between Zelensky and Trump, the American president directly said that the new government needs to complete the investigation into corruption cases, obviously hinting at the story with Biden. It is possible to draw the unambiguous conclusion that Zelensky’s visit to Washington is impossible without a lack of progress in the direction needed by Trump.
Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, did not come to Kiev, however he did meet Zelensky’s assistant Andrey Yermak in Madrid. The New York Times reported that 2 issues were discussed. Firstly, the American wondered how Ukrainian officials interfered with Trump’s campaign during the 2016 presidential election. Secondly, how Joe Biden interfered in Ukrainian affairs and his son’s activities in “Burisma Holdings”. Giuliani admitted that he “urged to investigate these damn things”.
This meeting alarmed Petro Poroshenko very much – if Trump gets to his ass, he will gnaw it off completely. Especially since his patron Biden is now Trump’s main competitor. So if Giuliani digs up something on the Ukrainian former president, it is unknown who will “slice” him first: either Biden or Trump. Maybe both of them. And now the question is: what can happen next and how? How will Vladimir Zelensky behave? EADaily asked for the opinion of experts in this regard.
President Obama’s administration played a key role in the organisation and success of the coup d ‘état in Ukraine, recalls the political scientist Aleksandr Dudchak.
“Its representatives put enormous pressure on the Ukrainian government during Maidan, they placed in key public positions those who were useful to them. Then the new Ukrainian government fulfilled the order and acted according to direct instructions from Washington. Suffice it to recall Biden’s harsh demands to fire the Prosecutor-General, who dared to carry out investigations into ‘Burisma Holdings’, where Biden Jr. was employed. Poroshenko & Co were confident in Hillary Clinton ‘s victory, and tried in every way to serve her, supporting tales about “Russian interference” in the US election, legends about the ‘granary book’ of the Party of Regions, etc. An investigation into the context of Poroshenko’s activities as president and his ties to Biden could shed light on many of the machinations of those who came to power via blood through a coup d ‘état. And it can give a lot of new interesting information about the very so-called ‘revolution of dignity’, its true goals, tasks, organisers,” said Dudchak.
The Americans feel more free in Ukraine than they do at home, they do not need to organise meetings abroad to gather some information, it is possible to quietly fly to Kiev, pursue any official, and squeeze out from then the necessary information, believes the journalist Arkady Parovozov.
“And Zelensky and his ‘funny’ company are not people who may have some information that is valuable for the United States about Poroshenko, his associates, and their American patrons. To get this, there is a need to turn to the former partners of the former president of Ukraine, who Poroshenko abandoned or framed. There are many of these today. In addition, the US has never been particularly concerned about gathering objective and reliable information to start pursuing someone or declaring war on someone. The meeting with Giuliani most likely discussed Zelensky’s intentions in the context of his promises to end the war in Donbass and by law to deal with those who have destroyed Ukraine over the last 5 years (in particular, Poroshenko), as well as the degree of his dependence on Kolomoisky,” said the analyst.
Today Zelensky is in a very difficult situation, despite the stunning political success of his party in the parliamentary election, continues the blogger.
“On the one hand, Kolomoisky broke the neck of all his geopolitical carcasses and is already making plans to kill all former offenders. On the other hand, advisers from US intelligence agencies, who provided the administrative side in both electoral campaigns, are putting them under pressure. These advisers and their boss, Trump, very much dislike both Kolomoisky and Poroshenko. What happens next? Zelensky will either be completely subordinated to Kolomoisky and Soros and turn into Poroshenko’s worst version, or he will be forced, sooner or later, to engage in a very tough confrontation with Kolomoisky until the Ukrainian up to the full sweep of Ukrainian politics from his people. Then the current president will have a chance for a second term and an opportunity to fulfil at least 5% of his campaign promises,” said a pessimistic Parovozov.
The fact that the Ukrainian authorities have serious compromising evidence on Biden and other Democrats (both on ‘Burisma’ and on Clinton’s campaign) was known for a long time, recalls the expert of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management Daniel Bogatyrev.
“Trump’s entourage, represented by Giuliani, has made it clear to Zelensky this spring that he wants to possess this compromising evidence. However, Zelensky is not in a hurry to transfer it. All of these meetings of trusted persons, hints and half-names, ‘insider leaks’, etc. are no more than an attempt by the encircled Ukrainian president to buy time. Seeing how the former Kiev authorities screwed up by supporting Clinton in 2016, the current president’s entourage does not want to repeat their experience. So I predict that Zelensky will continue to try to delay the moment of transfer of the cherished dirt on Biden. But he won’t be able to hold onto it for long, probably, Zelensky hopes, in case the candidate from the Democrats wins, to justify himself with the phrase ‘we didn’t want to, but we were forced, look how long we tried to not hand over the dirt!’,” believes Bogatyrev.
The Ukrainian leadership could not, of course, fully oppose Trump, said Bogdan Bespalko, a member of the Presidium in the Council on Inter-Ethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation.
“Poroshenko was simply convinced that Hillary Clinton would win the election, and so he (and his other co-commanders) allowed rhetoric that is hostile to Trump. Now Ukraine and its leadership will be used by Trump for the intra-American political struggle. Zelensky will manoeuvre because the situation is repeating itself: Trump is strong, but there isn’t complete confidence that he will win the election,” concludes Bespalko.
Zelensky will behave in a calculated way, assures the former deputy Aleksandr Golub.
“Given that Ukraine is a highly dependent (and above all on the US’ position) country, he will meet the Trump administration and try to hand over the necessary information. In return, he will try to trade loyalty towards himself and his main sponsors. If this is successful, the Americans can withdraw the claims against Kolomoisky and his entourage. It is possible that US representatives deliberately pedalled this topic in advance to force Zelensky to cooperate and make it more contractual. However, our president will not do this with his own hands – the stakes are too high. There are enough people in the country from Poroshenko’s former entourage who would like to earn the loyalty and favour of the new team. They will play along with this game with pleasure,” suggests Golub.
The analyst Sergey Salivon agrees with his colleagues and thinks Zelensky & Co will try to delay as much as possible the moment of making a decision on whose side to join in the American election.
“And then perhaps they will choose based on the data of sociological services. Where there will be a rake or a ‘victory’ – time will tell. And if they choose Democrats, they’ll just keep quiet and do nothing. And in the opposite case, they will have to hand over the dirt. Concerning Petro, he will bargain for his future, offering in return offering compromising evidence, or part of it, to one, and vice versa – silence to others,” predicts Salivon.
Zelensky is ready to surrender Poroshenko to the Americans, but does not want to fight with the US Democratic Party and, especially, with Biden – so far, the main nominee for the Oval Office from the Democrats, explains the publicist Dmitry Skvortsov.
“So under ‘handing over Biden’ he can demand enough from Trump’s people. First of all – to stop the attempts to dictate, in the form of urgent recommendations, the formation of the Office of the President of Ukraine, the implementation of foreign policy, concerning the ‘Holy Church of Ukraine‘ created by the State Department, etc. In the meantime, judging by Bolton’s urgent visit in connection with the sale of ‘Motor-Sich’ shares to China, the US is not ready to make concessions. Therefore, Zelensky (i.e. Kolomoisky) will not rush to satisfy all their wishes,” believes Skvortsov.
Speaking of the urgent visit to Kiev of Trump’s assistant John Bolton, which he made immediately after the day of Ukrainian independence (thus stressing the colonial status of Ukraine), the fact is that the owner of the company “Motor Sich” Vyacheslav Boguslaev seems to have sold his strategic plant to the Chinese company Skyrizon. This deal was so disliked by the United States that Bolton immediately flew to figure it out. “We will have a conversation with the Ukrainians about China’s ambitions and state our opinion of what China is capable of,” the Wall Street Journal quotes a White House source as saying. The US Embassy in Ukraine derisively commented on the visit of the overseas hawk: “The arrival of Ambassador Bolton highlights the US’ support for Ukraine ‘s sovereignty and territorial integrity and its Euro-Atlantic path.”
Bolton demanded the cancellation of the deal and the nationalisation of the enterprise, for it is now in Ukraine that the fate of another round of the US-China technological confrontation is decided. The Americans insist on the nationalisation of “Motor Sich”, but in this case it will be necessary to pay huge compensation, stated the economist Aleksey Kushch.
“This is about $500 million to $2 billion. For the new government, this will be a clearly problematic situation. It came under the slogans of libertarianism, which stipulates the maximum sale of state property. Plus, we have plans in the budget from year to year plans are laid for revenues from privatisation of 20 billion hryvnia, which are not met. And here it will be necessary, instead of receiving something from state property, on the contrary, to spend huge on it money. In addition, it will be possible to cross out relations with China, because they won’t forgive such a slap in the face,” sums up Kushch.
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