Brexit: The Beginning of the Big Road

The Conservatives won the UK’s snap parliamentary election with a crushing score. Early next year their leader Boris Johnson will elegantly withdraw the country from the European Union. This would restore the UK’s subjectivity and end the dramatic erosion of the British nation by immigrants. It seems that at the same time the island kingdom will be able to preserve European markets and restore the position of a major industrial power and a world financial center that will serve the interests of the Arab world and China.

After Donald Trump came to power in the US, Brexit is the second most important event on the world political scene. The Anglo-Saxons are abandoning the function of total financial and power control over the world and are focusing on solving the problems of their own national development. England, in particular, refuses to rule the EU.

The consequence of these two important geopolitical changes will be a greater degree of freedom for continental Europe, which in itself is good for its development. However, the weakening of Anglo-Saxon control will exacerbate the struggle between continental countries for leadership and the subsequent increase in wealth.

Germany and France traditionally lay claims to leadership in Europe. Germany is still bound as a country losing World War II. It is still occupied by American forces and bound by the hands and feet by legal norms, like the “chancellor act”. Germany’s peace treaty with the United States, Great Britain, the USSR (Russia), and France has not yet been signed. That is why France, represented by President Macron, has become extremely active. Germany “plays along” with the boy from the Champs Elysée, also hoping under the noise to become a subject of world politics. Economically, it’s been ready for this for a long time.

This is where the long way to transforming the post-second World War Potsdam world system begins.

With the new balance of power, the attacks of the reactionary American and European elite on Russia are becoming clear. Either the Skripals perish, Malaysian planes flying over Donbass fall, or the doping samples of athletes become positive. And it’s all the fault of Russia’s leadership. It’s being sought via “soft power” tools to exclude Russia from the process of bargaining for the European inheritance.

It is likely that the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany will agree on a tacit alliance to establish a New Order in Europe. It will be, as was already voiced by them earlier, the project “two-speed Europe”. The Eastern European countries in this project will lose most of the subsidies from the total budget and become simply markets for German and French goods.

Germany and France need Russia’s political support to implement this project. They will receive this support in return for restoring the role of heir to the USSR in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine, Moldova, and the Baltics will move without noise into Russia’s sphere of influence. The UK, which has left the EU, will no longer impede this. Nor will the US, engaged in a showdown with China, impede this. Otherwise, where do Trump’s demands come from: pay for your security in full, and also let us earn money from military supplies? The heads of the world’s empires don’t say that.

It is possible that Germany will return its territories that it lost after World War II. After all, most of these territories have been inhabited by Germans for many hundreds of years. This is both the present western Poland, and the present Czech Republic and Slovakia Sudeta, and the Klaipėda region, which is a part of what is today called Lithuania. Poland in these conditions will start to demand the return of Volyn and Galicia from Ukraine, once inhabited by Poles of the western territories of Belarus, Vilnius, and the Vilnius region. Hungary will remember about Transcarpathia, which was ceded to Ukraine after the war. Romania will remember about Moldova and Transnistria. It makes no sense for Russia to resist these demands, because they are made to foreign countries. But the fate of the Kaliningrad region with Germany can be negotiated.

Therefore, a very rapid change in foreign policy orientation is required from the leadership of all Eastern European countries. Are the ruling elites of these countries ready for fundamental changes in their course?Apparently, they’re not ready, if to judge by their latest actions.

The United States and the United Kingdom, having forgotten their political alliance obligations, started to derive economic benefits from the countries of the region. In Latvia, for example, American business has taken over the only profitable banking sector and transit industry. Their latest victims are Aizkraukles Banka, as well as the ports of Ventspils and Riga. Gas distribution facilities, Inčukalns gas storage facility, electric networks, and hydroelectric power stations are in the queue. British businessmen successfully sell to the Baltic States incomplete armoured vehicles that are at the end of their service life. No politics is pure business.

And this is us only at the beginning of the Big Road.

In the photo: the painting of I.Levitan “Vladimir Highway”. For visual illustration of the thought expressed in this post.

Aleksandr Gaponenko

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