Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
News reports from Ukraine are more and more reminiscent of combat. Not a day passes where someone either was blown up or killed. At the beginning of the week, on October 30th near Kiev the wife of the commander of Chechen militants fighting on the side of the junta Amina Okueva was shot in a car, her husband Adam Osmayev was wounded.
A few days earlier in Kiev there was an assassination attempt on the deputy from the Radical Party Igor Mosiychuk. As a result of an explosion the security guard of the people’s deputy and a passerby died, Mosiychuk himself was wounded, but not fatally.
On November 2nd the head of the “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” faction Sergey Samarsky was killed in the City Council of Severodonetsk in the Lugansk region. On the same day in Kiev a wedding was mined. In the evening of November 3rd in the Dniprovsky district of Kiev a man with a grenade was detained, and later in the evening of the same day unidentified persons triggered an explosion in the center of Kiev.
And this is only a small slice of the news of a criminal character that drew the public’s attention, but what else remains latent and not known to the general public? Tens, if not hundreds of fights with the participation of both active UAF fighters and those who already served and territorial battalions, threats of the use of weapons by them or suicide bombings, and so on. Not to mention the war between the elite with the use of law enforcement bodies (the arrest of the son of the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Avakov) or about the standing outside the Rada’s walls at the new Maidan — no self-respecting government would even tolerate it.
This is only possible if the authorities in the country don’t belong to local political elite, but they are only someone’s political puppets. The events speak about a transition of quantity to quality. The imperious, organizational, political mess at all levels starts to result in synchronism – when several weak interactions, superimposed on each other, can produce a political explosion that is impossible in stable political conditions.
Ukraine really is in a condition of civil war, and the epicenter of this confrontation moves more and more from the front line of the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics to the heart of the junta — to Kiev and other large cities, where the front line already, it seems, begins to pass through every street and house.
A number of foreign policy statements and events in recent days also testify to the fact that the situation for the Ukrainian junta will further deteriorate. Firstly, Ukraine fails in the European direction of its foreign policy. And it’s not so much about the incompetence of the Ministry of Pavlo Klimkin, although it does concern him too, but that it is about the Rada and the domestic neobanderist political agenda, which is pushed forward by the few not-finished-off neo-fascists that seized power.
After the scandal surrounding the law on education, which caused sharp rejection from the countries of Eastern Europe, mostly Romania (whose President cancelled their visit to Kiev) and Hungary – which actually already controls Transcarpathia, where Hungarians and Rusyns live, although officially it is still a part of Ukraine, in response to Kiev’s refusal to change the law on education, Budapest, blocked not only the December NATO-Ukraine summit, but raised the question of the need to abandon the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU.
Furthermore, Ukrainian diplomats initiated another major diplomatic scandal, this time in Serbia, accusing the government of this country of having too close relations with Russia, to which they received an answer about the inadmissibility of such statements, which was regarded as interference in the internal Affairs of Serbia. As a result, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry considered that the best thing to do was to call back Ukrainian Ambassador to Serbia Aleksandr Aleksandrovich to Kiev for consultations.
Secondly, there is increasing evidence that Moscow and Washington can cut a deal on Ukraine without representatives of Kiev. I will give only three facts from recent days. Firstly, on November 3rd, the US special representative to Ukraine Kurt Volker described as “interesting” the Russian proposal on the deployment of a peacekeeping mission in the Donbass, and stated that Kiev is proposed to not put forward an alternative: “This is an interesting initiative from Russia. We discussed this with Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia. I wonder whether this initiative will continue to develop”.
It is clear that Americans will look for any loophole in order to change the situation in their favor, but strategically the adoption of Russia’s initiative already strikes the image of Kiev and emphasizes its secondariness — “it is not necessary to go feet first at the table when adults sit and talk”.
Then, on November 4th it became known from the statement of Volker that Washington is not going to link together the situation with Crimea and the conflict in Donbass: “if there’s a chance to achieve progress in Donbass, then there is a need to ensure this progress, and not to falter because of Crimea”.
In addition, the US special envoy stressed that the West is ready to a commensurate the easing of sanctions in conjunction with the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. And here we see a major change in the US’ position regarding the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. The most important thing is that these are the facts, which say much more than any Kiev’s interpretation attempts.
Besides this, the construction of “Turkish stream” is taking place in parallel and in full swing, Gazprom finished the construction of the offshore sections of the two lines of the “Turkish stream” gas pipeline on the territory of Russia, and continued the construction of the first line in Turkey, reported the South Stream Transport B. V. (SST, the “daughter” of Gazprom implementing the gas pipeline project):
“On November 4, 2017, the first line of the Turkish gas flow entered the Turkish Exclusive Economic Zone. Pioneering Spirit, the world’s largest construction vessel, laid into the sea the pipe sections with the Russian and Turkish flags, which symbolize crossing of the exclusive economic zone’s border between the countries”.
I.e., Russia bypasses Ukraine from the South, and from December 2019 – the date of the launching of “Turkish stream” – the significance of Ukraine as a transit country for Russian gas exports will be significantly reduced. This process of bypassing Ukraine will continue also from the North through “Nord stream-2”, since Germany cannot allow any interference from the European Commission in its internal Affairs, nor the transformation of Turkey into a main gas hub of Eurasia, because then “Nord stream-2” will turn into “Turkish stream-2, 3, 4”.
And against this background, especially concerning Brussels bureaucrats of the European Union, who are orientated towards Clinton and the “deep state” in the United States – at war with Trump and trying to block “Nord stream-2”, meaning a complete victory for Russia not only in Ukraine, but throughout Eastern Europe, the cherry on the cake from the US State Department appears. It follows from the explanation of the State Department about the use of new restrictive measures, which may be imposed against all those involved in Russian gas projects, that they will not apply to “Nord stream-2”.
According to the document published on the website of the US State Department, sanctions for the construction of Russian gas export pipelines will apply to projects launched on 2nd August 2017 or later. The conclusion of the contracts will be considered as the beginning of the project.
As the contracts on financing “Nord stream-2” were concluded earlier, namely on 24th April, 2017, Gazprom and European energy companies Engie, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall signed an agreement on financing “Nord stream-2”, so now even the United States will not be able to put sticks in the wheels of this large Trans-European energy project.
But this automatically means the withdrawal of Russian gas transit from Ukraine. After which, Moscow can safely close the border with Ukraine, introduce a visa, and carry out other economic and political measures to coerce Ukraine into establishing order. Of course, this means the economic death of the neo-banderist junta. But most likely, the processes of disintegration and decomposition of the Ukrainian State gained such a speed – which is confirmed by the endless and even increasing violence in Ukraine – that the demise of this anti-Russian project will take place much earlier than “Turkish stream” and “Nord stream-2” will start to work.
In these circumstances, it would be very wise for the Belarusian leadership to start to build relationships with the leadership of Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, because the flight in the Ukrainian direction of the foreign policy of the Republic – using only one wing, together with the leadership of the neo-Banderist junta – very seriously discredits the government in Minsk as an ally in the eyes of not only ordinary Russians, but also Russia’s political class.
While millions of people in the LPR and DPR are suffering from the actions of the Ukrainian junta, when children are dying from shells, the government in Minsk carries out along with the Kiev junta a very lucrative business. But this is a business on the blood of the citizens of the former Ukraine, who made their choice in favor of the Russian world, and who now every day, despite everything, defend it with weapons in their hands.
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