The Delivery of American Weapons Will Radically Change the Course of Events in Ukraine

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard



The American-Russian standoff – let’s already call things by their proper names – the conflict in Ukraine enters a decisive stage…

The issue of sending lethal weapons to Ukraine can be considered as nearly solved. On November 16th members of the House of Representatives of US Congress voted for the draft of the military budget of the country for 2018. In addition, the document provides the rendering of military aid to Ukraine. $350 million will be allocated to Ukraine for purchasing weapons, including lethal ones. The National Security Council of the US this week prepared a proposal for the purchases of weapons to the sum of $47 million. The American media writes that it can involve the Javelin portable anti-tank system.

The motivating part of this proposal is extremely important. Washington, as “Interfax” reports with reference to the ABC TV channel, assumes that this step will fit into the initiatives of countering “Russian pressure”. I.e. after the package of amendments to the draft of the Russian resolution prepared by the State Department – given to the UN, about the introduction of peacekeepers of this organization in the conflict zone – was rejected by the Russian side during Volker’s meeting with Surkov in Belgrade, the US heads for a conscious escalation of the conflict with Russia concerning the Ukrainian problem to the extreme limits.

The fact that already in September at a press conference following the results of the BRICS Summit, Vladimir Putin, speaking about possible deliveries, as a matter of fact threatened countermeasures – saying that the people’s republics can send “the weapons that they have to other zones of the conflict that are sensitive for those who create problems for them” – testifies to Moscow being very concerned about the unraveling prospects. Besides this, the Russian President specified that a growth in the number of victims will be the result of deliveries.

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Indeed, the emergence in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of anti-tank and counterbattery systems will lead to a sharp aggravation of the situation on fronts, which are already very far from the “practice truce”, which was already concluded in August. It is no secret that the main tools of defense and restraint that army units of the LDPR use are precisely artillery and tanks. If the Ukrainian military will receive in their hands effective means of fighting against them, it can seriously affect the ratio of forces. The head of the State Duma Defence Committee, the former Commander of the Airborne Forces of the Russian Federation General Vladimir Shamanov, who passed through two Chechen wars and is knowledgable about the efficiency of these or those types of weapons pointed out that arms supplies won’t simply complicate, but “will explode” the situation in Ukraine.

It is obvious that Russia will be obliged to level out the relative balance broken by America, and it can do it both in political and military ways. Taking into account the recent unprecedented step of Vladimir Putin, who on his own initiative contacted the leaders of the LDPR over the phone, it is easy to guess that the way of political legitimation of the People’s Republics has a considerable horizon of possibilities. Decisions that will help to attach very essential significance to this line – if to remember the experience of the relations of Russia with Abkhazia and South Ossetia – are very numerous, beginning with the delivery of Russian passports to citizens of the republic, and finishing with the recognition of the rebellious territories as independent state formations.

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Back then Mikheil Saakashvili, having sent troops to South Ossetia, upset the fragile balance of power in the standoff between Tbilisi and Tskhinvali. The threat of defeat for the not numerous and badly equipped forces of defense of the small Caucasian republic turned out to be more than real. Moscow instantly reacted, having sent military aid and having recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In order to exclude the probability of similar drama events repeating themselves, they deployed their military bases on their territory. So the arsenal of means that the Russian government can resort to is rather extensive.

Firstly, of course, support for the Armed Forces of the LDPR will be given. They will receive more modern types of weapons from Russia, eliminating the imbalance that deliveries from the US can lead to. It also isn’t excluded that regular army units will be introduced to defend the inhabitants of Donbass, as it was done in August, 2008, in South Ossetia. And there are no doubts that everything will be done very quickly so that Ukrainians won’t have the slightest opportunity to use their superiority in weapons. Concerning political decisions, taking into account that America will show a desire to ensure the military superiority of the Ukrainian side, and, respectively, in this case it is particularly about a power scenario whereby Russia will be given a completely free hand. Washington, refusing peaceful ways to solve the conflict in Ukraine as a matter of principle, grants to Moscow the right to involve any means for the prevention of a massacre in Donbass. Putin quite recently very distinctly stated at the Valdai forum that Russia can’t and won’t allow this.

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It is surprising, of course, that the present American administration leads affairs towards extreme and radical options, however, by all accounts, it doesn’t completely control the course of events. The rigid anti-Russian line, which is served today with almost identical diligence by both Democrats and Republicans, has a terrible and ugly logic, which realises itself in a stake placed on expanding the scale of bloodshed in Ukraine.

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