Andrey Derkach is a politician and the son of a politician. His father, Leonid Vasilyevich, served in the KGB of the USSR, and under Kuchma for almost three years headed the SBU. Andrey Derkach himself graduated from the Academy of the Russian Ministry of Security and worked for the SBU for a short time (less than a year).
So he knows firsthand about the work of the special services, and is well-versed in Ukrainian politics, remaining afloat (though not in the primary roles) under all regimes.
Andrey Derkach, being undoubtedly a clever man, understands perfectly well that only very naive people can believe in the “beautiful impulses of the soul” that forced him to expose the crimes of the Poroshenko regime. But Derkach’s revelatory pathos is not intended for them. He serves as an effective relay of signals sent by the oligarchic group offended by the current government to its offenders. This task does not involve hiding the name of the orderer of the “play”. It is not in accordance with the rules to say it out loud, and from the point of view of political technologies, it’s even harmful. But the addressees of the message should clearly understand who stands behind Derkach and what they want, since the need to reach an agreement was hinted to them. They must know who to go to negotiate with.
That is precisely why we can’t say that the fingerprints of Kolomoisky are visible on Derkach’s revelations. Not even his fingerprints, but Kolomoisky himself, in full face and in profile, simply bulges out of the “tapes”. Whatever was discussed at the latest press conference, “PrivatBank” – illegally taken away by a criminal group led by Poroshenko, was obligatory mentioned. Kolomoisky is almost never named in this context, but it is clear to everyone a priori that criminals led by Poroshenko could rob only an exceptionally honest and selfless businessman who cares about the fate of the country. The ugly IMF is constantly spoken about with “kind” words. This is the same Fund that did not give Ukraine money until the Parliament passed a law that makes it impossible to return “PrivatBank” to Kolomoisky. Pinchuk, as a transfer link between Soros and the Ukrainian “Sorosites” who pushed Kolomoisky away from Zelensky and strengthen the barrier between him and the government, is constantly reprimanded.
This arrangement of accents serves as a guarantee of safety for Derkach himself. It is pointless to strike him: Kolomoisky will immediately find another whistleblower, having started, in addition to tapes, to promote the theme of the martyrdom of the truth-seeker. In addition, the revelations are correctly arranged. They hit first of all Poroshenko, whom Zelensky still threatens to put in prison. Therefore, the current government is not commanding to speak out against the whistleblower of Poroshenko’s crimes, although the signal is actually sent to Zelensky/Pinchuk/Akhmetov, and this current President, first and foremost, should be uncomfortable with the revelations.
Firstly, with the help of these tapes, the informal alliance of Zelensky and Poroshenko’s parties in the Verkhovna Rada that had started to take shape was disrupted. It was supposed to give the current regime additional stability in conditions when the “Servants of the People” faction split into four or five different groups, and the President’s Office lost control over most of its own deputies.
Secondly, another target of the tapes is the American Democrats, or rather the Biden group and Soros, who supports it. Exposing criminal schemes involving the former Vice President and legalising tapes in the information space is a fairly effective weapon that the Trump team is happy to use in the election fight. Since the Ukrainian government traditionally focuses on the Democrats who have grown and nurtured the Ukrainian regime since the time of Kuchma, Derkach’s revelations clearly do not improve relations between Kiev and its American partners.
Thus, Zelensky is beaten together with Poroshenko, and he can’t respond. Kolomoisky insistently hints that it is necessary to negotiate with him, or it will get worse. And, judging by the latest (not the last) session of exposure, which took place this week, Kolomoisky starts to lose patience and moves from hints and veiled threats to real actions.
The current series of tapes for the first time published materials that can indeed become the basis for a criminal case not only against Poroshenko, but also against Biden. In the process of discussing the FSB foiling the provocation carried out by Ukrainian intelligence in Crimea, which could’ve turned into a bloody tragedy and lead to an armed response from Russia (not necessarily to war, but to a forceful response to the provocation) Poroshenko said that he did not know anything, and that he will not punish the intelligence leadership in order to not give grounds to Russia to claim that Ukraine recognised responsibility for the provocation.
In other words, Poroshenko confirmed that his subordinates committed actions clearly interpreted as a war crime, a crime against humanity, and state terrorism, but Poroshenko covers them and will continue to cover them. Thus, the President of Ukraine became an accomplice to a crime that does not have a statute of limitations. Any state on whose territory Poroshenko will be, if he becomes a person involved in a criminal case concerning the Crimean provocation, is obliged to detain and try him or extradite him to the country that initiated the criminal case.
Biden was also exposed to a criminal article (although not so severe and domestic American). It is clear from his words that he understands much better than Poroshenko what a dangerous mess the Ukrainian partners have made. Biden directly points to the difficulties that have arisen in connection with this case in the Obama administration (the President has to be convinced of the need to continue supporting Ukraine), as well as to the sharply negative reaction of Paris and Berlin. Biden is fully aware of all the specifics of this case. However, he coordinates with Poroshenko a version of events that is far from reality, after which he sets it out at the official American level. So Biden is lying to the President, Congress, and the American people. This in itself is a very serious crime by American standards. But we must bear in mind that Biden is lying on the issue of relations with a nuclear power capable of destroying the United States. Moreover, this power was subjected to a provoked terrorist attack by an American ally, and this attack only by luck did not end in a mass tragedy. Biden hinders the development by the American leadership and US allies in NATO (Germany and France) of an adequate political line in a case directly related to US national security.
Well, in addition, like a raspberry in the cocktail, Biden and Poroshenko discuss the resignation of Manafort. From this discussion, it is incontrovertible that the Poroshenko regime interfered in the American elections on the side of Trump’s opponents. This is exactly what the Democrats themselves accused Trump (who in their version of events was allegedly helped by Russia) of doing, seeking the impeachment of the President and prison terms for key figures from his entourage.
Of course, against the backdrop of a wave of American unrest, Biden’s antics lose some of their information brightness, but the election is still far away, and there is a reason not only for a scandal in the press, but also for a criminal case.
A continuation of the series with tapes is promised. Judging by the fact that the quality of revelations and their danger to the persons exposed is growing, Kolomoisky demonstrates that if the Kiev government does not compromise (on the terms of Kolomoisky), then he is ready to issue for them a ticket to war. If the next series of Derkach’s revelations is as powerful as the current one, and the current one was more powerful than the previous one, then the Ukrainian authorities will need to appease Kolomoisky at all costs. But he is not a person who is easily intimidated or eliminated.
Kiev found itself in a dilemma — either bear irreparable damage from further revelations of Derkach, not being able to stop their flow, or reach an agreement with Kolomoisky, but then be absolutely unprotected not only in the east, but also in the west, deprived of access to loans, forced to agree to the policy of default, and open forceful rule proposed by Kolomoisky.
Forceful rule in Ukraine is possible only in the form of a Nazi dictatorship. This clearly makes it a pariah state, devoid of international support and exacerbates to the limit the contradictions between various oligarchic groups, bringing the country to the start of a civil war of all against all.
Kolomoisky is not afraid of this outcome. He still cannot leave Ukraine, because the US will immediately demand his extradition in several criminal cases, and Russia or China (where he can hide from America) will not accept him. In a country torn between warring factions, it is much more reliable: there is no legitimate government — there is no one to make a decision on extradition. No one will talk with the Nazi regime (if it manages to maintain the unity of Ukraine for some time) either. And Kolomoisky will be able to make money from the elimination of the remnants of ephemeral statehood better than others. At least that’s what he thinks.
Finally, the last option is to try to establish full control over Ukraine and try to push it off on someone cheap, in fact for security guarantees and the preservation of hard-earned capital. Kolomoisky, like other Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs, seriously overestimates the role and importance of Ukraine in the global coordinate system. He believes that Ukraine is still quite a valuable asset that is being fought for.
This is where he is wrong, and this mistake may cost him dearly, but so far the domestic and foreign policy strategy that he is developing is based on such an erroneous assessment of the situation. The result is an accelerated destabilisation of Ukraine and the undermining of the foundations of the current regime, without offering any alternative.
Kolomoisky forgives nothing and forgets nothing. He won’t stop. The Ukrainian elites and the Ukrainian authorities do not have a good way out of this situation. We can only hope that somehow it will resolve itself. But this abscess can no longer be resolved — either a breakthrough or sepsis.
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