Elijah Magnier: There Is No Escaping Syria’s Partition Under the New US Administration

Translated by Captain Ahab


alraimedia.com (from 23/09/2016)

This article, written by Elijah Magnier in 2016, is just as actual in 2017 as it was back then, for the following reasons given by the author himself:

The statements of both Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov during the UN Security Council meeting is an open letter that points towards the different and opposing ends and world views each of these countries have. The differences are felt keenly by those on the ground in Syria.

The US is drawing a diabolical plan to carve up Syria, after failures under George Bush Senior, to successfully bring the vision of a new middle east into fruition. The Obama administration continued with the same plan, although the tactics have changed. However, Russia’s intervention in the Middle East necessitated an alteration of the plan, so that it can deal with the realities on the ground.

Al-Rai’s sources, who are highly placed individuals in Syria’s high command and their allies’, say that it is clear that Russia has accepted that it can only secure “useful Syria”, unless things change, where Russia and it’s allies send in massive reinforcements to the North East of Syria and can claim a victory without suffering high losses, and without being able to stop the partitioning of Syria or the fact that “useful Syria” is on the ground isolated from certain areas for years to come.

The Americans and the Russians agreed on a 7 day ceasefire, wherein humanitarian aid would be allowed to go in, and a separation of the moderate rebels from the terrorists of ISIS and Jabhat Fath Al-Sham (previously Al-Qaeda) would be finally realized. The cease-fire stated that all combatants including the SAA must remain 3500 meters from the eastern supply route that leads to the Eastern part of Aleppo. Why did the ceasefire fail?

1. It is impossible to have a ceasefire for 7 continuous days across all fronts without any violations. The Syrian moderate opposition along with Ahrar Al-Sham, Fath Al-Sham, and Ajnad Bait Al-Maqdis conducted an assault on SAA positions in the South of Syria to try to control the town of Al-Hadar, with Israel’s air force support, Israel bombed 21 artillery positions that belonged to the SAA during the first wave of attack. Also hundreds of violations were registered, besides the fact that Ahrar Al-Sham and its allies did not withdraw to the lines specified as the agreement had dictated.

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At the same time, more than 23 factions that were funded and trained by the US, and others who fall under Turkey’s and other Middle Eastern countries’s control, announced that they refuse to abandon Fath Al-Sham, understandably so as it which leave Fath Al-Sham alone to be bombed by the US and Russia, if ever an understanding could come into place, then a joint military operation could be on the table, which is highly unlikely at this particular moment.

2. Washington bombed the strategic Ithriya mountain which overseas the Deir Ezzor airport, this has prevented airplanes from landing there, especially after ISIS had downed one air plane, which as a result has restricted the supply coming into the city to only helicopters and only at night.

Yes, America did admit it’s “mistake”, although high-ranking officials may see it in a different light: the US recognizes that the quick advances of the Iraqi army backed up by it’s allies in Anbar, Hudaithah, and towards the towns of ‘anah, Rawah, And Al-Ubaidi thus putting the Iraqis in touching distance of the Iraq/Syria border. There they can squeeze ISIS and block ISIS in the Syrian city Al-Boukamal, when that happens the SAA can break the siege around Deir Ezzor and crush ISIS. Neither Damascus nor it’s allies have any intention to liberate Raqqa, ISIS’ capital. The popular view in the Syrian camp is that whoever is willing to head to Raqqa to liberate it, is welcome to do so, the city does not carry strategic or geopolitical weight.

The Russian/Syrian/Iranian command center believe that “the US does not directly support ISIS, rather the US are like a bedouin who throws a rock to the left or right of his herd thus forcing them to take the direction he wants them to take”.

These sources say that “the US does not want the SAA to hold their positions in Deir Ezzor, so that they can’t team up with the PMU which would enable them to break the siege and ISIS, if that happens, Deir Ezzor would be used as a launching pad towards the liberation of other cities, if Damascus’s allies agree to move eastward from Palmyra towards Deir Ezzor, and the PMU from Al-Qaim towards Deir Ezzor, ISIS will be sandwiched. On the other hand if ISIS takes control of Deir Ezzor, then naturally Washington will push the Kurdish forces and other opposition groups to liberate ISIS, thus de-facto partitioning Syria.”

3. Russia has realized that the US is wasting time, so that they can portray themselves as heroes, who care about the civilian population, and are concerned to let in humanitarian aid, where as Moscow would appear incompetent on the International scene, it makes them look like they can’t juggle more than one ball at a time (Humanitarian aid, finding a Political solution, and the Military operations). The US got the green light to let in humanitarian aid into Aleppo, without losing their political capital, and without separating the terrorists from the moderates.

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And just like that the aid convoy was hit at the last moment, just as it was approaching the gates of Aleppo, before reaching the Eastern part of the city, although the US knows how to appease public opinion with one word “we’re sorry” for killing 83 SAA soldiers, and injuring an additional 100 and for also for allowing ISIS to control a strategic location, the only supply rout into Deir Ezzor. But Russia is not willing to play the US’ game, by asking a committee to enquire into the destruction of the humanitarian convoy. This made Kerry look like he won the war of words with Lavrov, meanwhile everybody forgot about Fath Al-Sham, instead Russia’s brutality is in full display.

The question that is asked by many: Why would Moscow offer Washington something in Aleppo without certain guarantees? Why Doesn’t Russia turn the table on everyone, and continues with the war.

4. Officials in Syria say “the goal is to have control over ‘useful Syria’, which includes Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Latakia, and Tartous. And to accept the loss of islands of oil, grain, and arable land in the North and North East of the country to the Kurds and in extension the US. Russia stood against connecting the Eastern Kurdish areas with the Western flank in Afrin, by giving the Turks the green light to create their much dreamt safe zone. However, Turkey seems to be overreaching, and coming too close to SAA positions in and around Aleppo, which is a worrying sign for Moscow and Damascus and their allies. If necessary the Kremlin’s war planes will be back over the skies and will bomb Ankara’s allies, should they cross the red lines formed by the Americans on the Syrian chessboard, since they wanted to create a Kurdish state stretching the Turkish/Syrian border. There is a lot of oil on the Mediterranean coast, just across Latakia, and Damascus can replace the oil that the Kurds control, or may come under their control.”

Russia will not stop Syria from bombing it’s enemies – this was Kerry’s request- as long as the Syrian opposition and the Jihadis are standing together. Russia will not give Washington a cease-fire for free, there has to be guarantees. Russia has sent it’s air craft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov to Syria’s mediterranean coast, also the Russians have sent their best spy planes which can use guided missiles to strike targets without informing the US, now that both the US and Russia don’t trust each other, the Russians are worried that the US would inform the opposition on the locations and intent of Russia. So trust is lacking in US/Russian relations, and Lavrov’s plea for cooperation falls on deaf ears.

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US Secretary of State Kerry said in the UN Security Council that “Al-Qaeda is our enemy”. Russia says “what have you done against this supposed enemy except arming them, and allowing your allies to share their expertise, and intelligence”. A leading Syrian official said “any American administration will not enter into a war with Russia regardless of the person elected, however, war will rage between their allies. Hillary Clinton will not be able to withstand a war with Russia, that is if she wins the election, because the Kremlin are intent on defending it’s interests in the Levant – they consider it their war, because it represents their defeat or victory on the international scene. The US will not allow for a Russian victory, and vice versa, so what is left is the partitioning of the country much like Berlin post WWII into an Eastern and Western Syria, where nobody wins, the US would push the jihadis to the east where instability will reign. Russia knows this, and understand the gravity of the situation. So, will Russia acquiesce to Uncle Sam?

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