EU Predicts the Emergence of Military Conflicts in Countries Neighbouring Russia by 2035

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard


By 2035 armed conflicts can begin in the countries neighboring to Russia. The authors of the report of the European Centre for Parliamentary Research came to such a conclusion. According to analysts, the weakening of influence of Moscow caused by economic factors and “a transition period after Vladimir Putin’s presidency” can result in instability in the region. In the Federation Council such a possibility of events was considered as extremely improbable and was called a manifestation of the “general policy of the West to contain Russia”.

The European Centre for Parliamentary Research published a report that contains analysis of the main geopolitical tendencies, along with possible scenarios of the situation in the world developing by 2035. According to the European analysts, by this moment on the border with Russia there can be local conflicts that, perhaps, will provoke EU involvement.

According to authors of the report, in the future Russia will face serious economic problems — because of a “reduction of the working-age population, reduction of oil and natural gas prices, and also a transition period after Vladimir Putin’s presidency”. These factors, according to the report, will create “space for conflicts between neighboring States”.

“Countries seek to reincorporate Russian-backed enclaves. While some of these movements are accomplished diplomatically, miscalculation does occur, leading to armed conflict near enough to Europe to trigger the EU’s involvement,” it is said in the report.

At the same time in the document it is said that “involvement”, most likely, will be carried out not in a military way. Forceful methods won’t be used because of the fear of reciprocal actions from Moscow.

“A military occupation and peacekeeping force is not deployed, for fear of antagonising Russia, but the EU High Representative is the most powerful presence in the summits that surround the disputes,” it is stated in the forecast.

According to the European analysts, despite problems in the economy, Russia’s defense industry remains competitive. New generations of submarines and jets, and also means of missile defense and air defense increase the possibilities of Russia to contain the North Atlantic alliance.

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Cyberwar as a premonition

The information war, according to analysts of the European Parliament, will continue. Also, European experts suggested that the Russian government will try to distract the population of the country from internal problems due to “military operations abroad”.

“At the very least, Russia is likely to continue cyber and informational warfare targeting European institutions and individuals. In response to these cyber threats, Europe needs to move from being solely reactive, by strengthening its own institutions to make these less vulnerable,” it is said in the document.

In the report western countries are recommended “accelerate the establishment of principles of use, doctrines, and strategies in cyber warfare, as it has fallen behind Russia in this regard. This is primarily a task for NATO,” states the document.

“Known trick”

The chairman of Council of the Federation Committee on Foreign Affairs Konstantin Kosachev noted that the forecast proposed by the European analysts is unlikely to come true.

“I would say that the probability of such a succession of events amounts to zero, at least in the part concerning the intentions of Russia. We aren’t immune from the fact that neighboring countries can provoke a conflict with Russia, but it is for sure that Moscow is definitely not interested in producing such conflicts,” stated Kosachev.

The Senator noted that the report of the Research center represents “a manifestation of the general policy of the West to contain Russia“.

“The general line is aim to maximally tear off from Russia the countries geographically close to us in order to include them in their own zone of influence,” stressed Kosachev.

He also noted that with the help of such reports in the European Union the necessary programs move ahead.

“It is a known trick when it is necessary to realize the program and to find justifications for this. They at first invent justifications, then they make them an element of public opinion, and then appeal to public opinion and certain incontestable proof that, of course, doesn’t exist. And the corresponding programs receive financing,” noted the Deputy.

In addition, Kosachev stated that the accusations against Russia of carrying out information and cyberwars “have nothing in common with the actual situation“.

“When we learned to defend ourselves from the information war, the accusations against us of similar actions started, but we never neither at the official or unofficial levels were engaged in such work. We even don’t have such possibilities if to compare our possibilities with the so-called West from the point of view of financing of such programs, and the existence of information resources,” concluded the Deputy.

“Prerequisites to economic growth”

In turn the Vice-Chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee Aleksey Chepa noted that he sees no reason for the weakening of Russia’s economy in the future.

“I don’t agree with the opinion of analysts who consider that the economy of Russia will fall and the situation on the border with our country will be aggravated. I don’t yet see any prerequisites for the weakening of Russia’s economic power. We see that recession stopped and growth is observed in our economy. It’s not big, but today it exists, and the prerequisites for the increase in this growth also exist,” noted Chepa.

According to the Deputy, the report of the European analysts represents “a preventive strike, and an attempt to form the opinion in society that in Russia everything is bad, the economy falls, and also the government is weak”.

“We are interested in the stability of the existing political systems. If conflict arises near us in any country, for us it also a problem. For example, the situation in Donbass. We don’t consider that such problems should be solved in a military way. First of all, this is the UN, diplomacy, public organizations. And similar forecasts are being built for an explanation of their arms race,” emphasized Chepa.

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