Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
Meanwhile, it is not at all idle speculation — the intelligence data of the DPR Ministry of Defence directly points to preparation of a large-scale offensive. All my familiar military personnel speak directly and without any doubts about the fact that it is being prepared — the Deputy Commander of a battalion of special purpose Zakhar Prilepin, the legendary Serbian sniper Deki, and other military with who I, one way or another, cross paths with.
Deki, for example, is sure that the Armed forces of Ukraine will go on an offensive at the end of the spring, when the summer will still not have definitively taken effect. He claims that he has never been seriously mistaken, naming the terms of the next storm. Indeed, the forthcoming aggravation — is an open secret.
It is clear that Kiev, not from a desire to play little soldiers, sends to the front line more and more trains with armored machinery and pushes forward directly to advanced positions heavy arms, which according to the Minsk agreements shouldn’t be there. But all of this is information from military sources. The impartial analysis of political circumstances also says that the Ukrainian authorities have no other choice other than to provoke as much as possible more bloody collisions.
In conditions when Kiev lost its main ally – the US, which repeatedly confirmed via the lips of the new American President during his electoral campaign and by leakages of statements of high-ranking officials from his environment that Ukraine once and for all dropped out of the field of foreign policy interests of America, the leadership of Ukraine can take the last desperate step in order to return the lost goodwill and interest from the side of the State that mentored her for many years.
For this purpose she needs only thing — to do what she didn’t manage to achieve during all three years of war, namely: to involve Russia into a civil war in Ukraine, and to involve it in such a way that it’s involvement becomes obvious and evident so that already nobody could call into question a full-scale presence of active armed Russian forces on the territory of the allegedly-still-united neighboring state and direct participation in military clashes in the anti-terrorist operation zone. What can Ukraine count on? On the fact that if the UAF will manage to crumple the line of defense of the adversary and enter directly onto the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk, Moscow can make a decision on direct support of the People’s republics, the population of which in such a scenario will be threatened by a global humanitarian disaster.
It should be especially noted that in the plans to breakthrough the frontline using the available forces of the Ukrainian army and territorial battalions, there is nothing far-fetched. The extremely low fighting capacity of the UAF became a common-place statement, however this is a very deep delusion. For the past three years the Ukrainian army accumulated a sufficient volume of aggression and acquired skills of conducting military operation in order to engage the adversary, being a highly motivated and qualified military force.
At the existing ratio of manpower to military equipment, Kiev can very much count on success. The resources collected by them on the front line, as a minimum, surpass the defensive potential of the adversary by three times. It is considered that it isn’t enough for effective offensive actions in urban conditions, however the Ukrainian authorities aren’t especially interested in a clear military victory, because by and large they don’t need Donbass — they just need to depict the contours of a grandiose catastrophe for the main ally of the LDPR – Russia – in order to induce it to rise up in defense of the Republics.
The geopolitical lay of the land of such a scenario isn’t at all crazy — whatever the new American President could say about improving relations with Putin and Russia, it is obvious that the weakening of her positions will always remain the desirable-for-America purpose. Moscow and Washington remain rivals in the international arena and this situation is unlikely to change in the most long-term perspective.
If Kiev indeed manages to expose, at last, the neighboring state as the aggressor, having thus given a reason for the international community to strengthen pressure on Russia, so it can count on the fact that Washington will again give it favorable attention and will accept it in the club of promising, though not trouble-free allies.
They have to do all of this rather quickly, because if Trump will get bogged down in an adventure with North Korea, the preparation of which goes at full speed, in this case he will already have no time for Ukraine and Syria. And apparently, intentions of the American leader to demonstrate to Pyongyang all the military power of America can push a situation very far — all the way to the beginning of military operations, though at this stage there is talk of economic blockade, but in parallel also measures for the preparation of actions of force are being undertaken.
Thus, we can say that talk about an assault by the UAF on the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics isn’t groundless at all. There are all the prerequisites for an aggravation of the situation — military and political.
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