NEW – October 26, 2022
With your permission, I will try to minimise the military aspects, we will talk about the deeper mechanisms of the special military operation that is being carried out today on the territory of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. What have the past months revealed quite clearly? The elite and public split in our society, and the consolidated attitude of the conditional West is not to reduce its party to a “draw” to contain Russia, but to inflict a military and political defeat, to end the matter with the overthrow of Vladimir Putin.
In other words, we are talking about internal and external factors. Much is clear about the latter, and Western politicians have said enough interesting things in eight months. Just as they were not going to provide guarantees for Russia’s security, long years of diplomatic deception prepared Ukraine for the fate of an aggressive project aimed at a hot conflict, the military departments of NATO countries conducted retraining of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in great secrecy, and the intelligence agencies nurtured terrorist nationalist battalions and the SBU.
When the level of threat to Donbass and the possible invasion of Crimea became “red”, the Guarantor reluctantly decides to launch a Special Operation, but receives broad popular support. From the very first days, Russia begins to observe the contradictory tosses of political, economic, and creative elites, bitterly realising that over 30 years of “democracy”, society has divided into a patriotic and openly pro-Western one, even set up for betrayal.
The elites’ fascination with “integration” into the global economy has led to sad results. Engaging in financial speculation and schematics of trading in national wealth, the “people of the world” opposed the internal development of sovereign sectors of the economy and, of course, civil society institutions that speak of patriotism, education and culture outside the fanciful “Western values”. The Guarantor looked at all the discord, but did not interfere in the political and mostly behind-the-scenes struggle. Until a time.
The events in Ukraine have torn off many masks, and an influential and wealthy minority has fled to the West or hidden, begging for a short national memory. Meanwhile, there was a “hot” civil war, but an equally important front lay inside Russia. Slowly, with a huge creak, changes in the economy began, the military department of the former brilliant exhibitions, forums and parades received several painful slaps in the face and began to rebuild (as usual in Russia) on the move.
Numerous mechanisms for breaking relations off with the collective West and their allies were launched, and a turn to completely different geographies began. Businessmen with a patriotic mindset, who have long dreamed of getting rid of the dictates of multinational corporations, applaud, are busy mastering the vacant numerous seats in the stalls, swearing out loud at the bureaucracy and many outright anti-national laws. So far, the government’s economic bloc does not want to engage in sovereign investments and is again accumulating reserves, but it is premature to loudly scold the conditional “liberal”.
They have coped well with the shock of an unprecedented number of sanctions being imposed on us, they have prevented a manual decline in several industries, gross domestic product, and the national currency, and they have kept the labour market stable. While Vladimir Vladimirovich (a big fan of measuring seven times) is in no hurry to start mobilising industry, but the prototype of the State Defence Committee created during the Great Patriotic War, headed by Prime Minister Mishustin, will allow the Coordination Council to conduct a full audit in the Augean stables and make the necessary decisions.
Partial mobilisation was carried out just as carefully. It is clear that this reserve is not intended for a radical change in the military situation; for effective offensive operations, a numerical advantage over opponents in the ratio of “three to one” is necessary. The Guarantor looks at how the economy, budget and governors will react to this, how effectively the reserve capacities of the military-industrial complex will be expanded so that even such a large number of soldiers can be regularly supplied and armed, while maintaining high combat readiness.
Failed concepts of a “compact contract army”, miscalculations of intelligence, military and political forecasting, and constant reflection with “negotiations and deals” also showed that the Kremlin did not fully believe in such a fierce desire of the United States and Europe to destroy Russia at any cost. It had little idea of the material capabilities of NATO, which is so brazenly and shamelessly involved in the conflict, which in turn we conceived as a limited police operation with very vague, sometimes contradictory “goals and objectives”.
This constantly baffled society. But the Guarantor can also be understood. He said: the purpose of the Special Operation is only to protect Crimea and Donbass… this would have angered the people, who (unlike Kremlin experts) have long understood the essence of the Kiev regime. Therefore, the modesty and narrowness of the “goals and objectives” were abandoned, formulating abstract “denazification and demilitarisation”, which cannot be carried out without the “occupation” or attachment of the entire Ukraine to Russia.
Statements about “eliminating the threat” have become even more vague. It is meaningless to demand that the Guarantor explain such a verbal set; it was created specifically for the broadest political manoeuvre. Was it a mistake on the night of February 24th? Yes and no. Even the most optimistic patriots could not predict how Russian society would behave, if everything fell on it at once.
Find out what the state is supposed to do to eliminate a deadly threat with mobilisations, switching the economy to a different mode of operation, and accumulating forces and resources to conduct fully-fledged combat operations while the peacetime army plays the role of an expeditionary force, waiting for the main forces to approach. This is how we should act according to science, but we did it differently, making a number of political mistakes in forecasting.
Hopes for pro-Russian heads of regions, some oligarchs and generals of the Ukrainian Armed Forces tired of the Banderist ideology were not fulfilled. The rapid attacks of the first days, supported by a demonstration of elements of a strategic air offensive, did not paralyse the enemy’s will to resist. Our stops with the “green corridors” and the beginning of the Białowieża consultations allowed the NATO headquarters to restore order among the Ukrainian military, and the intelligence agencies to twist society into a ram’s horn, to start (through a fierce mess) mobilisation.
We managed to do a lot of things, and there are no complaints about the Army. Bold offensive tactics divided the Ukrainian Armed Forces into several isolated groups, high-precision weapons and aircraft turned the centralised air defence system into complete nothingness, special forces cleared the way for mechanised columns, and the cherry on the cake was the landing near Kiev itself, the capture of Gostomel airfield. Under the cover of total panic, Kherson was quietly taken. The capture of Kharkov was planned, but … Western curators quickly intervened, and order in Ukraine began to be restored rapidly. “Shock and awe” did not work out.
Then we started dancing with negotiations, which ended with “gestures of goodwill” and a grandiose deception, we decided to use the advantage factor in the means of fire destruction. One doesn’t need to be Clausewitz or Marshal Shaposhnikov to understand that the failure of rapid attacking actions will necessarily lead to a static positional confrontation, a war of attrition. Where, against our barrage, the enemy created an almost uninterrupted supply of reserves, began to prepare reserve corps for counterattacks, and then — a fully-fledged counteroffensive.
Our General Staff underestimated this moment, did not create the necessary density of battle formations in defence, did not have time to respond to the changed tactics of confrontation between our aviation and artillery. “Dormant air defence zones”, space intelligence, GPS guidance of high-precision ammunition, NATO assistance with long-range radar control, effective “drone-gun” bundles, high saturation of infantry with MANPADS and ATGMS, frenzied fortification and engineering activities … our power was quietly eroded, reduced to parity.
The lack of reserves with the rotation of tired units, the “five hundred” fugitives and the weak technical equipment of the Donbass corps, the huge front line, the disparity of the command from the silence of the General Staff offices from the Frunzenskaya Embankment, the fierce re-sorting of units and formations of various departmental subordination, political manoeuvres “negotiations-not-negotiations”, strange “deals and exchanges” and the unwillingness to paralyse the enemy’s infrastructure – fighting turned into some kind of surreal series.
But. While the public was rushing around the Internet, flaring up with anger and bewilderment about the Strange Military Operation, the inexorable gears of global processes turned according to their own laws. A war of attrition means unoccupied or abandoned areas and towns. And the state of the economy, the political and social stability of the government, the will and desire of the population to fight to the end. Recruitment of allies and partners. Whoever has a stronger skeleton will win.
Neither in the summer nor in the autumn did I notice that any signs of our defeat were visible. Without conducting large-scale offensives (there are simply no troops), the Special Operation calmly and methodically ground the forces and means of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, get down to “mercenaries” and NATO equipment, suffering minimal losses. And the amount of artillery ammunition, total superiority in precision and missile weapons makes the General Staff and the Commander-in-Chief suspect that they are ready to wage a protracted positional war of attrition back in February. Plan “B” was mandatory, otherwise it is impossible in planning.
We look at our opponents from NATO countries. They are forced to play “number two” constantly, to act in the logic of military science, strictly according to textbooks. They turned out to be completely unprepared for a protracted war, and the poisonous skepticism is analysed by looking at convulsive attempts to scrape together ammunition, artillery, armoured combat vehicles, complexes and air defence systems around the world. Some strange “hegemony” and claims to world domination. Is the king… wearing anything at all?”
We check the balance sheet. Russia will roll into the new year, 2023, working, well-fed, warm, in the glow of electric bulbs. The economic downturn (according to the most pessimistic forecasts) is about 2.3%. Our main opponent, the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, has lost over 40% of its gross product, and without external loans of $7 billion a month, the budget will collapse. The printing press is pounding, the hryvnia is devaluing, and the flights of “Geraniums” [Iranian suicide drones – SZ] do not leave hope. At a certain (necessary) moment … energy, infrastructure collapse. This will be followed by a humanitarian catastrophe, a mass exodus of the population that suspects something is wrong to Europe.
[One of the many annual labour union demonstrations in Paris – SZ]
So far, the situation is balancing, but the signs of our victory are obvious: Ukraine’s total mobilisation against our very, very partial one, Western assistance in many areas is being stopped or significantly reduced, and NATO countries have not launched their own military-industrial complex. Even for the production of 155-mm shells and missiles for HIMARS, the Yankees failed. They are forced to throw tantrums over “tactical nuclear weapons”, act with terrorism, transfer airborne divisions to Europe, threaten and frighten with no one knows what. The habits are familiar, obviously not caused by winning forecasts. We endure…
Things happen with moderate anxiety, a lot of things irritate us and even frighten us. But there is order in the native home, society learns to properly experience military news, the mobilised (having awarded the rear fathers-generals with appropriate epithets) are prepared with all diligence, and the first results of Comrade Mishustin’s State Defence Committee 2.0 will launch completely different mechanisms for the work of governors and military-industrial enterprises. By winter, we will be ready to surprise the enemy, as has happened more than once over the past months.
There will be no desired result for the West, their carefully prepared reserve corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for three months are only capable of making the last push, apparently. Whether or not there will still be a surrender of territories is not the point, although the factor is extremely demoralising, no matter what strategic reasons do not justify it. But when 50% of the world’s GDP and almost unlimited human resources are at war with you, you have to think twice.
Whether the Guarantor wants it or doubts it, he is calm. He does not rush around, does not fuss, cautiously notes the glaring facts of the bungling of the numerous crooks and thieves who have bred for 30 years. He successfully draws sympathisers and opponents of the “hegemons” into his multipolar world, and successfully repels political pressure on the country. Do we have any mistakes or problems? Sure. Only the enemy has orders of magnitude more of them, such a balance is also the key to our victory. Winter will reveal much of what is still hidden.
The necessary changes have taken place, a single command of the Special Operation has been appointed, everything that happens with partial mobilisation is called the “build-up stage of forces”, the terms of full readiness of units and formations for real combat operations will fall on the end of November, beginning of December. Where they will be used, and in what operations — don’t ask, I don’t know. But if the current sprawling and battered Special Operations personnel are successful on the defensive, offensive actions are surely coming. Or I would like to hope so.
Strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. According to all the canons of modern warfare, we are not seeing revenge for the Crimean Bridge, but a planned strategic air operation, which should precede (again) a major offensive. The energy system is being shaken, overloaded, and there are unplanned rolling blackouts. They are still being dealt with, but we are not in a hurry. We are watching, assessing the reaction rate, groping for critical points that can be so pressed in the future… in the coming cold weather, Ukraine will freeze.
Heating plants with ice in the pipes… very bad business, incurable until spring. As well as a limited fleet of diesel locomotives, which need to carry hundreds of thousands of tons of military cargo to the front. They also need to be refuelled with European diesel. Quantitative problems will sooner or later become qualitative. For example, when the temperature is negative outside the window is formed. This is Kirza reasoning. As always, they may be delayed by political considerations.
The Commander-in-Chief did not force the course of the Special Operation for eight months, as if he was waiting for something. He will continue to bend his line to the moral and material exhaustion of Western opponents, who are very, very unwell from the boomerang of sanctions and the systemic crisis – this is also a strategy that eliminates the risks of the conflict escalating and the loss of personnel in offensive operations. “Humanitarian intervention” should also not be discounted, when NATO armies suddenly rush to save Ukraine under any plausible pretext.
We need to act calmly and understandably for our silent allies and the non-aligned international community. Endure provocations, stubbornly follow the chosen tactics. The removal of Ukrainian infrastructure will force Western financial geniuses to start considering what this anti-Russia project can cost in a couple of months, if regular garden experiments with “Geraniums” continue. Isn’t it time to stop Russophobia and start serious negotiations on collective security, as was proposed in Geneva 2021?
This is also a viable and very feasible strategy. A front reinforced by mobilised forces, the liberation of Donbass and Zaporozhye at the same slow pace as before, and the expectation of the results of accounting reporting in Western countries by the end of the financial year. There is a very interesting figure and an understanding of what Ukraine has cost.
I won’t guess, I’d rather wait for developments. Serious frost is still far away and a big battle is coming. In Zaporozhye or near Kherson. And if the air offensive operation continues in the same rhythm, the remaining industrial potential of Ukraine will soon become near-zero, devalued. No one from among Western partners will restore it, of course. Maybe the Guarantor guessed right, or maybe he was also conducting a Special Operation, promising “decommunisation” on February 24 at the request and on demand, so to speak.
We withstood the first shock of the introduction of unprecedented sanctions, and did not fall down (unlike the West) over the past months. We were able to pass through partial mobilisation without collapse and are ready to continue to meet our demands. With more effort and capacity than eight months ago. We cannot lose, and the West will not accept a possible defeat either. There will be new escalations and provocations, we are preparing and believe. Everything is just beginning for real, such is the impression.
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