NEW – June 13, 2022
War is a resource confrontation. Ukraine does not have the resources not only to wage war, but also to live. At the same time, it is such a big piece in itself, which requires huge resources to maintain it.
2 weeks ago, the head of the Ukrainian Finance Ministry, Sergey Marchenko, said: “The budget is now in such a state that we regard our income in a secondary context, the primary one is international grant and credit assistance. Our own income, according to optimistic estimates, now covers only one third of our expenses, two thirds are covered by borrowing and grant funds.”
Earlier, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal said that the budget deficit of Ukraine is $5 billion per month.
Let’s take this optimistic estimate, $5 billion per month, that’s $35 billion until the end of the year.
So that you understand how much it is:
The state budget of Estonia in 2022 is €13.64 billion, that is, 256% of Estonia’s budget is needed.
The German budget in 2022 was approved at the level of €495.8 billion, that is, in order to support life in Ukraine, the Germans need to give 7% of the budget, despite the fact that the US could not force them to pay even 2% on turnover for the last 5 years.
In other words, individual allies do not have the resources (and desire) to support Ukraine. The US, Europe and the UK together have it.
But! On November 8, there will be US Senate elections, and no one has any doubt that the Republicans will win. And not just Republicans, but Trumpists.
This means that the landscape will change in the US in November and they will drop out of the ranks of the interested parties of this war.
Half of Europe will split off with them, and by this time the other half will have closed itself in due to the structural crisis, which is just beginning now.
The UK alone will not be able to pull Ukraine. The Brits’ calculation was that it would be pulled by the whole world, and the benefit would be mainly from the UK. But it will not subscribe to this alone, having already a public debt at the level of 104% of GDP and a budget deficit at the level of 15%.
It seems to me that by the autumn Britain will hand over Ukraine to Russia, and in a particularly sophisticated form.
I predict that a famine may really begin in Ukraine by the autumn, which will be blamed on whom? Of course Russia.
And we will have to solve humanitarian disasters on the newly liberated territories in an enhanced mode.
And it’s not in Kherson to open a state store and not in Melitopol to sell fuel for 70 rubles!!!
The scheme of Crimea: the seizure of the administration – a referendum on accession – entry into the Russian Federation, does not work! Because there should be a minimum amount of time between the seizure of territory and the referendum!
When did we take the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions? 3 months ago, and the referendum did not even begin to be prepared! For 3 months now, this is a grey zone, on the territory of which there is no war, but there is no peace, there is a territory of people with machine guns and the absence of laws.
In order to quickly launch life on new territories in November, it is URGENTLY necessary to adopt laws on the integration of the whole of Ukraine, so that the Russian state document service, state banks, cops, tax officers, and not dashing guys from all kinds of security forces and PMCs, follow behind Russian troops.
In order for the referendum to be organised in Kherson and not be falsified, it is necessary that the real Russia follows behind the troops. That law and order follow.
And it is also necessary so that people in the liberated Kharkov and Kiev do not starve in winter.
That’s when peace will begin.
Empire of the Smoker
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