By Ollie Richardson
On the 30th of September, 2015, the global geopolitical status-quo that governed all spheres of life would be changed forever – the past century of US-British hegemony of not only the economic sphere via the banking quarters in both London and New York, but also the exertion of military power (exporting local cultural values abroad) came to a grinding halt.
On this day many criticized Russia for entering the Syrian theatre – saying that it would be another Afghanistan, and that the Russian state would rot domestically at the expense of a worthless adventure in the Middle East. Many even went as far as saying that Russia is only interested in carving up Syria. In the year of 2017, these illogical, short-sighted (and frankly paid for) conclusions, which fortunately were only able to gain traction on the Internet, look more foolish than ever.
For example, during the various instances where Russia negotiated with the US with the aim of separating the transparent jihadists from the incognito jihadists (“moderates”), these keyboard warriors started to cry “Putin betrayal” – as if there was someone else to negotiate with (al-Qaeda?).
When Russia stopped bombing Aleppo during a humanitarian pause, calls of “weak Putin” could be heard on every social network under the sun – as if war-affected civilians don’t deserve to eat and drink.
When Putin “withdrew” some aircraft and ground units after fully liberating Latakia (in reality it was a rotation), calls of “mission failed” began to sound in unison from “experts” in computer games – as if excess idle military units are serving a purpose.
When Putin struck a deal with Turkey in order to compensate for the allied lack of ground forces, and to prevent the Kurds (US) from establishing Rojava, calls of “traitor” bounced around the “reliable” and “informed” so-called “alt-media” – as if Syria is an island with no neighbours.
When one jet overshot the Kuznetsov runway due to a faulty arresting gear, calls of “disastrous mission” came from the lips of the NGO equivalent of Sun Tzu – as if minor accidents are a mathematical impossibility.
When Palmyra was recaptured by ISIS (who conducted their most slickest operation yet – were they helped?), suddenly the entire Russian military was a shame, and the Ministry of Defence “naive” – as if losing a battle equates to losing the war.
Yes, it’s true that Russia and Iran didn’t see eye-to-eye on a handful of issues – prisoner swaps, format of Astana talks, liberating Palmyra or Idlib, lack of air support for IRGC troops, the dogmatic position concerning Assad as leader etc…
Yes, it’s true that Assad and Putin had a difference of opinion on a handful of issues – liberating Ghouta or Palmyra, lack of air support for Syrian Army, the habitual retreating of Syrian army troops, the depth of Kurdish involvement in any new constitution etc…
Yes, it’s true that Hezbollah didn’t enjoy being left in the lurch in South Aleppo when Russia “withdrew” the main part of its military contingent and focused on North Aleppo instead during the ceasefire on Castello Road.
But it turns out that the single event that changed the course of the war, and of modern history is the shootdown of the Russian Su-24 by the Turkish Air Force. This foolish miscalculation not only guaranteed the defeat of US proxies in both Syria and Iraq, but also of the Dulles incarnation of the CIA worldwide. Never interrupt your opponent whilst they are making a mistake. Of course, this mistake was the result of a Moscow-curated pressure-cooker situation, in which the belligerents of the war were forced to enter a game-theory matrix. A hyper-giant sized wave of blowback was heading for Ankara, and this provided Putin all the leverage he needed to make Erdogan – the main sponsor of terrorism in Syria – walk to heel.
With Obama gone, and puppets like Merkel and Hollande sitting on their luggage, they can afford some time to cogitate a response to the question asked in their direction: “Do you realize what you have done?” It looked so good on paper – remove Assad, balkanise the country into 3 parts (Kurdish North, Sunni West, Minority South), lay a pipeline from Qatar to Europe, remove Russia’s naval base in Tartus, and use all the aforementioned to create a springboard for landing stronger future blows on Russia.
However, today the S-400 is in place, Aleppo (the most strategic Syrian city) is fully under the government’s control, Europe – totally battered due to taxes being diverted towards Sykos-Picot 2.0 – is pivoting to Russia piece by piece, Russia’s base in Tartus is modernised and expanded, Turkey occupies the North from the Kurds, Russia’s economy is exponentially growing, and the Jihadist-“moderate” enfant terrible has turned the gun on itself, courtesy of another (forced) “rebranding” of al-Qaeda – this time into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
The social media “experts”, by all means, can keep on offering Putin advice based on the incoherent ramblings of the“super-qualified”, “I did a bachelor degree once” clique. Their predictions are quite accurate actually – in the sense that the exact opposite happens of what they post. In the meantime, reality is calling, and it can’t be put on hold. He who can, does; he who cannot, becomes hysterical on social media.
“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”
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