Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
Kiev junta desperately needs a big war in Donbass as proof of their capacity for action in the eyes of Washington.
In the stream of daily news about “military preparations of the Kiev junta in Donbass”, which 90% during ordinary times consists of quite routine messages about rotation and planned replacements, today really disturbing signals appeared. A certain military and diplomatic source in Moscow (which is one level higher than the usual Donetsk reconnaissance reports in such cases) declared that Kiev during the period from January 10th to January 23th deployed in the Donetsk direction 16 echelons with ammunition for MLRS and 152 mm weapons. In addition, fresh battalions were also sent. According to this source, this is in reference to, in particular, the Donbass battalion, three battalions of the “Azov” regiment, and also reinforcements of four brigades, including the 46th landing and assault. The high degree of competence of this information is confirmed by the fact that in it attention is paid to very essential, but not always adequately estimated by laymen, details. For example — this one:
“After ammunition was delivered, according to the source, it was laid out on the soil, which speaks about the lack of intention to store it for a long time…”
It is obvious that such a method of storage of shells and rockets is applied only in case of their swift use.
Also attracting attention in the specified information are the dates of the massive transferring of troops and ammunition – from January 10th to January 23th. I.e. directly on the eve of the new US President Donald Trump taking office. Such coincidences don’t happen.
Especially as soon after that, on January 29th, Kiev conducted a reconnaissance-attack in several directions and, first of all, in the Donetsk one. The scale of fighting and the degree of involvement of forces and means shows that it was the probing of NAF positions, which usually is carried out before a large offensive. But not at all the offensive itself. Military experts noted that serious forces of the “UAF” – battallion tactical groups – weren’t introduced in this case.
Meanwhile, such a massive transfer of troops and especially ammunition, more so in the conditions of their increasing lack of shortage in Ukraine, can’t be at all explained just by checking positions of the enemy. Here it obviously means something bigger.
Especially as, according to information of the same mysterious “military and diplomatic source in Moscow”, the Kiev command actively concentrates assault-crossing equipment and transfers means on the river bank of the Seversky Donets, separating the territory of the LPR from the occupied-by-junta part of the Lugansk region.
Also, the same disturbing context is perceived in the information from a completely different source in the Kherson region, where today it was noted that “a huge column of military equipment of approximately a hundred units” was pulled in the direction of Donbass. It was such that even locals blocked the road on which this column moved because they received information from their relatives who are in the military that “they are being sent to the slaughter”.
The command of the NAF undoubtedly knows about all the threatening preparations of the enemy and takes the appropriate proactive measures. It is precisely this that can explain, in particular, the unprecedented power of the missile and artillery hit that the Donbass militia conducted on UAF positions on 29th-30th January. It is appropriate to assume that the main target of this pre-emptive strike was the mountain of ammunition stored in the immediate vicinity of the frontline, and the military groups that moved forward to the area of concentration.
It is worth recalling that so acted the Soviet high command on the eve of the battle of Kursk arc, when the powerful artillery preparations were made on Nazi positions. At that time, they succeeded to hold up the Wehrmacht offense, but, in the end, it still took place.
The current Ukrainian Wehrmacht, of course, is not even a pale shadow of Hitler’s war machine. However, its “general offensive” in Donbass is unlikely to be completely excluded. And, continuing the analogy with the battle of Kursk, which became the last chance for Hitler to turn the tide of the Second World War, we can assume that a similar attempt by his ideological heirs in Kiev is quite likely.
Moreover, especially since there is both geopolitical and psychological pre-conditions. One of my recent articles was about the fact that Washington clearly entered a period of fluctuations in a number of key questions of foreign policy, including the Ukrainian one. This was once again confirmed today by Trump, who said that the US do not really know what is happening in Ukraine. And what course he will ultimately take will greatly depend on how, during this transitional period, the other participants of this big geopolitical struggle behave. In the article I said that for Moscow it is not necessary, in such a crucial moment, to give Trump even a minimal reason to think about her weakness and readiness for further concessions.
“There is a very high risk that an overly soft, compliant position, including in front of Russia, can be assessed in Washington not quite adequately. Not as a signal of willingness to negotiate, as it is understood in the same Moscow, but elementary, in the spirit of old trends, as a sign of weakness of the opponent. And accordingly — as a stimulus to its further suppression. In an extreme situation, which prevails today in Eastern Ukraine, such an error would be most costly and will entail the most severe consequences…”
But exactly the same applies to Ukraine! The Kiev junta do not benefit from, at such a crucial period, showing their indecisiveness and unwillingness to take effective action. Moreover, for her it will be much more undesirable than for the same Russia, which finds itself by far in the best geopolitical and economic situation.
It means that the desire of Kiev’s leaders at all costs to prove to Trump their “viability” one, if not two levels higher. And Kiev already has no other way to do this than to hit Donbass with all remaining forces, and to oblige everyone, in this way, to reckon with its interests. And the projectiles will soon run out. So the analogy with the eve of the Kursk arc is practically complete. I think that the end of the current Ukrainian-Nazis will be similar. But they have no choice. Hitler knows this all too well!
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