Between Honduras & the Congo: Economy of Ukraine in October

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard


My regular readers may have noticed that articles on the economy of Ukraine have been few and far between.

This is largely because the information from there has become incomplete and contradictory.

And sometimes there is the open falsification and backdating of statistics. Thus, Ukraine’s GDP for 2015, in the beginning, was shown to be about less than 78 billion dollars, then the same sources began to scribble 80, then 85, and now they already show 90.6 billion dollars. Why do they do it, I am not able to understand (on the contrary, a low base would help them to better forge the relative performance of this year), but a fact remains a fact.

I think that it’s because they recounted an average annual dollar exchange rate of 21.84 hryvnia per dollar. What is also strange is that for almost the entire year the rate has floated around 23 to 26 hryvnia per dollar. But, apparently, it is necessary for the manipulation of monetary indicators for the IMF, which for the Kiev regime is more important today than even the internal propaganda.

In short, that is conditions in which it is necessary to work. Okay, let’s keep in mind that the reality is likely worse, but let’s work with the official figures.

So, according to “updated” official data, the drop of Ukraine’s GDP in 2014 was -28.1% (183.3 to 131.8 billion). If this can be partly explained by the departure of Crimea and Donbass, in this case the drop of GDP in 2015 is already impossible to explain by this. In 2015, the drop was -31.3% (131.8 to 90.6 billion dollars).

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There is no way there is 90.6, there is about 77-78 billion, but okay, and even in such an appearance, the figures are horrifying.

The total fall in two years, only officially is -50.6% of GDP. So Maidan was a success, and Yatsenyuk is the best anti-crisis manager on the planet. hahaha

For reference, the drop of the GDP of the Soviet Union after the beginning of the Great Patriotic War amounted to only 10%, and this despite the fact that huge territories were captured by Germans. And there was total war, a conflict of the highest intensity, in contrast to the smoldering civil war in Ukraine, which, in addition, is conducted in a limited area and does not touch the rest of the territory – there is no bombing in Kiev and Lvov like how the allies bombed Dresden.

But let’s come back to the GDP of Ruin [Ukraine – ed]. Statements for the third quarter are still absent, although it is already the middle of October, while it should have been submitted already three weeks ago. They are probably sat finishing their sums, trying to twist the three fingers of “Fig” in order to straighten them into the symbol of “All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda”.


Again, okay, we will work with the available data. Real GDP (with prices of 2015) for six months of 2016 amounted to 880.4 billion hryvnia ($40.3 billion).

Where is the growth? Where is this mythical economic growth, which every day the television screens and other media inform Ukrainians about?

Nominal GDP (at current prices) is 985 billion hryvnia, but this is due to the growth of the monetary growth being over 60 billion hryvnia. By the way, “congratulations”, the money supply in UAH exceeded one trillion. While the GDP is falling? Right, this is inflation.

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Officially inflation this year so far is 6.4%. But if we compare nominal and real GDP, we see a figure of 11.88%. It’s definitely better than last year, when Ukraine beat world records for inflation, but still in double-digits, and this is only for the first six months.

And, for clarity, let’s take one more indicator of GDP per capita:

  • in 2013 – 4,030 dollars per year;
  • in 2015 – 2,115 dollars per year.

And this is GDP per capita, and wages are always less.

For comparison, according to the data of the World Bank, GDP per capita in 2015 amounted to:

  • in Russia – 9,057 dollars per year;
  • worldwide average – 9,995 dollars per year.

And Ukraine is just between Honduras (there it’s a little more) and the Congo (there is a little less).

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