Translated by Ollie Richardson
As was reported by “Glavnovosti”, more than six months ago Oleg Lyashko and his environment established cooperation with the Administration of the President of Ukraine. It was precisely after this that the accusations against Mosiychuk and others were dropped.
Poroshenko, according to all sociological research, in three years experienced more than a fivefold fall in his rating. However, he still retains sure chances to win in the second round of voting in 2019.
How will it be done? According to the closed sociological research for Poroshenko, which was reported by “Glavnovosti”, in order to remain for a second term he needs to take ultra-right and ultra-radical positions. The scheme is simple: along with discrediting the systems of power and the increasing of fragmentation in the political preferences of Ukrainians, the turnout in elections decreases.
If Poroshenko takes ultra-right and ultra-radical positions, then a certain group of people will vote for him – absolutely irrespective of the deterioration of the economic condition of the country – only because he is “against Russians and Vatniks”. The only challenge is not to lose the anti-Russian direction of the radicals, as it will then lose its small, loyal audience. But they will vote for him in any case.
With a low turnout and support for radicals, Poroshenko will be able via simple manipulations, including the fragmentation of both the opposition and rival candidates from his camp, to pass into the second round. And there it is necessary to bring a convenient candidate for the fight.
The sociological research published today by the “Rating” group says: if Poroshenko passes into the second round, he will surely win against just Lyashko.
A simulation of the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine yielded the following results: with the pair of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko – 24% support the acting head of state, 32% — the leader of “Fatherland”, 30% — won’t participate in such conditions, 14% — undecided.
In a situation where Poroshenko and Lyashko reach the second round, 27% would support the incumbent president, 23% — the leader of the Radical party. Thus, 17% were undecided, and a third expressed their unwillingness to participate in the elections.
In a situation where Poroshenko and Yury Boyko move into the second round, 28% of respondents would vote for the head of state, for the leader of the Opposition bloc — 26%, which is almost nose to nose. 17% hadn’t decided on their choice, and 29% didn’t express a desire to vote in such a situation.
The level of support of Lyashko and his party is rather high and equal to about 6-8% which, perhaps, even exceeds the level of support of Poroshenko. But Lyashko is a managed figure, and it is unlikely that Ukrainians will vote for a nearly open homosexual as president.
And if to consider that Tymoshenko started travelling around the country for meetings, then a similar trip of Lyashko after Tymoshenko, and a strengthened PR campaign on TV and billboards around the country, point only to one thing: Lyashko is appointed the partner of Poroshenko in the second round, and his task now is to take away votes from Tymoshenko.
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