Macroeconomic Consequences of Economic Mobilisation

NEW – October 26, 2022

The remonetisation and reorientation of the economic mechanism for stimulating financial speculations towards an all-round increase in value added by processing will put the economy into a mode of sustainable growth, limited only by technological, logistical and personnel bottlenecks that can be quickly “expanded” by the state.

This will make it possible to ensure stable economic growth for a long time due to the outstripping increase in investments and the restoration of real incomes of the population, which will become its “locomotives”.

The increase in GDP in 2023 is expected to be 7% (against the projected decline of 0.8%), in 2024-2025 – by 10% (against the projected growth of 2.6%).

Investment growth in the course of economic mobilisation will be 10% in 2023 (against the projected decline by 1.0%), in 2024-2025 – by 12 and 13% (against the projected growth of 3.9 and 3.7%, respectively).

The growth of real incomes of the population in 2023 is expected to be 10% with a significant decrease in its differentiation (against the projected growth of 1.6%) and in 2024-2025 by 12 and 11% (against the projected growth of 2.8 and 2.5%, respectively).

The increase in retail trade turnover in 2023 will be 8% (against the projected growth of 2.7%), in 2024-2025 – 10 and 9% (against the projected growth of 3.7 and 3.1%, respectively).

The official forecast for the world price of Urals oil at $70.1/bbl seems to be unreasonably low in the face of the destruction of global logistics, continued demand from China, and coordinated actions by Russia and Saudi Arabia within the framework of OPEC+. It seems that this is a plausible forecast of the average price of Russian oil exports, taking into account all forced discounts.

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The official inflation forecast of 5.5% in 2023 with a decline in 2024-2025 to 4.0% seems plausible, given the proposed comprehensive anti-inflationary measures.

Mikhail Delyagin

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