Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
On the Western front without changes
The meeting in Berlin ended without sensationalism, however the devil, as is known, is in the details.
Detail number one: once again an absence of an alternative to Minsk was declared by all parties. On the one hand — it will allow Poroshenko to win a little more time. Especially not in the military but in the political arena. The agreements, the form of which three other sides insist on, for President Poroshenko is a direct road to the gallows that will be set by his own “subjects” on Maidan. Because it is clearly prescribed — at first elections and special status, and only after everything else. That’s why His Highness was talking total nonsense, dumped in a heap the armed OSCE mission, as well as prisoners of war and Debaltsevo. “I twist/ I twirl, I want to confuse.” From the same playbook.
However, it is especially the ostensible desire to act in accordance with all the points and gives him a chance to somewhat delay the time of his political death. At least because today to simply hold elections in Donbass in accordance with all norms is really impossible. It is what Porky will use. He describes to partners that he would do it with joy, but it is damn separatists that impeach him, and his own hamsters he will feed with threatening statements in the spirit of “there will not be marriage”. At the same time, everyone will know that the Guarantor is lying, but they will prefer to keep quiet. Otherwise he’ll be obliged to do something. However, a flurry of activity in this direction can lead to results that are very undesirable for Ukraine and its allies.
Detail number two: The behaviour of the participants. As was already noted by bots of Porky, everyone was extremely concerned and tense. The only exception was the Russian delegation headed by Putin. From the point of view of psychology it is quite logical. If you have already decided everything and figured out the situation three moves ahead, while all others, intently observing you, are trying hard not especially to change, but at least to guess the way you think — in this situation, really the only thing that remains is to obtain pleasure by observing the observers…
Finally, it’s pleasant, to visit the not-so-strange-to-us Berlin, having excited half of Europe by this, to be half an hour late, once again to show the beauty of the diplomatic game, to look into the eyes of Hollande, who only yesterday threatened the International Tribunal, to notice how Merkel became withered and tired … Well, let’s not talk about Poroshenko. Finally, yesterday he was less hagged than usual, his socks seemed to be proper. And if he even drank, it was just a little bit. In the beginning, for courage, then to relax.
Detail number three. Surkov. The very fact of his participation in yesterday’s meeting caused a wave of indignation. Ukrainian brainwashed and Russian opposition blogosphere came to the unequivocal conclusion — German politicians are extremely despicable, cynical, and cowardly. Because to sit Surkov, who is under sanctions, near Steinmeier, who personally approved and endorsed the sanctions list, is a horrible deflection, which confirms once again that Putin bought this rotten-to-the-core Europe with all the giblets.
Detail number four. Sanctions for Syria. The plan itself, to punish Putin for arrogance by refusing from Russian gas, in words looks just fine. Plain and simple. Impossible to invent something better. But it has just one flaw: it’s absolutely unknown how to carry it out. Especially taking into account yesterday’s news that during the last 24 hours, Gazprom exported a record amount of gas to Europe.
Of course, it is possible to be contrived and again shoot themselves in the foot. But what’s the point of economic and political masochism if satisfaction will not be obtained. The damage to Russia will be minimal, while the success of the Syrian campaign is obvious. Europe, of course, is short-sighted, but not so stupid. In short, today there isn’t anyone who is willing to arrange a new thrashing of sanctions on Putin. So, Merkel and Hollande, at a joint briefing following the talks, moved this theme into the subjunctive mood.
So, every side of the meeting, at first glance, went home with their own interests. Poroshenko, as usual, bought two aces on the cheap, Hollande and Merkel, playing whist, remained on zero, and Putin further increased his lead in this tourney.
TOTAL: By and large, on the Western front there is no change, which allows for attention to be focused on the Eastern front, where today very important, and in some ways even life-changing, events will take place. However, their situation is under our strict guidance and close supervision.
Oh yes! I almost forgot! Ukraine after all found a pretext for “victory”. Even two. The unaccomplished handshake between a Tyrant and a president of peace… and Berlin’s sighting of Surkov.
According to the opinion of the main Ukrainian analyst Ponomarya, this is nothing else other than the soft proof of the capitulation of Russia in Donbass.
A simple idea, that it’s not the Tsar’s affair — to flog a dead horse, especially that there are for this specially trained and hardened-in-negotiations-with-Nuland people — is just unreachable for brainwashed.
On the other hand, let them be happy.
For blissful are those who believe…
Hollande: “…Ukraine will return control of the border after the elections in Donbass…”
Merkel: “… Ukraine will receive control of the border only “at the end of the process”…”
Obama: “… I couldn’t give a f*ck — I am demobilized…”
It looks like yesterday someone was bent over… in the Normandy format. And it wasn’t Putin.
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