New Sanctions: The US’ Transition From a “Marathon” to a “Sprint”

NEW – March 15, 2022

About the new packages of sanctions, the EU, but, above all, designated American package (I would not start to think that this is just a threat), I will say only one thing so far:

I may be wrong, but it seems that the West and, above all, Washington, realized that they could not stand the “marathon”. They need to break us quickly – by September at the latest. Or better – by July. Or break us convincingly.

Then the US elections will be held normally. And Grandfather Biden will be able to safely leave after 2 and a bit years, retaining the possibility of 2 terms for Harris (22nd amendment).

Yes, and you can enter the heating season in a milder mode.

But the choice of the “sprint” option in relation to Russia sharply increases the degree of confrontation. And it almost suggests the possibility of using force. For example, on links (in particular, the Northern Sea Route), which implies a complete blockade of trade.

But not only that.

I think we will then remember March 14-15 as the turning point of the entire campaign, and indeed, the entire crisis around the former USSR. At the point of two days, several events converged that completely broke the logic of the Americans.

First. Although at a very high cost, it was managed to break plans to drag the Kremlin into the “Bennett plan”, which provided for a personal meeting between Putin and Zelensky. And, after all, very serious forces were thrown at this plan… And from the side of Russia too. And last night they had to clumsily justify themselves. And there’s more. Look at the amount of information planting at a very high level in both Russia and the United States over the past two days. For example, about Russia’s request for help from the United States. And who made them. And also think about what was the meaning of Zelensky’s video message to the European Parliament, what he wanted to say there (I’m almost sure that he would have announced a breakthrough in the negotiations). And why it was canceled – obviously not only because of the strike on Donetsk.

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My assessment: on Monday morning there was a real chance that the natural operational pause in the operation area would become permanent. And develop into fully-fledged peace negotiations. With very difficult consequences for us, for Russia. This was thwarted, but, again, with very serious costs.

Second. It became clear that there would be no socially significant protest yet. It may occur, but much later. By the end of the year. And the consequences for the global economy are already emerging at minimal levels of opposition from Russia. The Kremlin is experiencing pressure from within, rather, from supporters of increasing the degree of radicalisation towards the West.

Third. Of course, there is a fronde of oligarchs. Hence the games with sanctions lists of oligarchs. They, the oligarchs, are very unhappy. But they have neither the desire nor the opportunity to go to the barricades. The maximum is to serve the Kremlin through controlled media (see the first point).

The Europeans were the first to feel the impossibility of a “long strangulation” by Friday. Borrell started to get hysterical. But who is asking them? But, by Monday, the Americans finally realised this. The trick is that they have created a symbiotic financial system in anticipation of the dispossession of Europe. They didn’t put filters in. It was not considered timely. And now a financial crisis in Europe means a financial crisis in the United States. And taking into account the elections, there are grave consequences for the ruling elite.

Therefore, the degree had to be raised and it was necessary to go to the “forceful geo-economics” zone, which is now uncomfortable for Washington. Where, indeed, any interdependence is already being severed and where “noble piracy” with the seizure of our tankers (or rather, our oil) can lead to war. And it’s not clear to me yet how far they’re willing to go.

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In Russia everything is also understood. The operational pause ended yesterday in the middle of the day. After the terrorist attack in Donetsk (and this, indeed, is a terrorist attack, not an act of war ever) it was already impossible. But the logic was broken a little earlier. It’s just visible by the time. The course of hostilities has accelerated dramatically.

And in the evening, the flag of Ukraine was removed in Kherson. A coincidence, of course. A coincidence of no strategic significance. But very symbolic.


The professor looks into the universe. The Author’s Anonymous channel of Dmitry Evstafyev

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