Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
The result of 2017 is the finally lost opportunity for Poroshenko to become President for a second term. His main fault in the opinion of the US is corruption and the scandals connected to it.
Lutsenko’s ramraid on NABU in order to prevent the investigation initiated by the FBI into the delivery of Ukrainian biometric passports to ISIS members, the attempt to arrest Saakashvili, and other scandals were perceived in the US as Poroshenko’s attempt to escape their control, which definitively put an end to his career.
Thus, in the following year the US’ next candidate for the presidency of Ukraine will be defined. Tymoshenko and the lead singer of the Okean Elzy group Vakarchuk have good chances. But in principle, the US will be able to bring anyone to power. The ratings and support inside the country aren’t of great importance. What is important is only who Washington will place a stake on. Saakashvili has good chances of becoming Prime Minister.
Next year the war of all against all inside the country awaits Ukraine. There will be many corruption scandals connected to Kolomoisky, Lutsenko, and – do not be surprised – with Poroshenko. Moreover, it will be the Americans who will initiate them.
I am sure that the sum in claims against Kolomoisky in connection with the withdrawal of funds from Privatbank will increase manyfold. Kolomoisky will try to settle the problems with the Ukrainian authorities, but unsuccessfully, because it’s not Ukraine, but America who is the initiator of the confiscation of his assets. Next year Ukraine will desperately need resources to the economy afloat. Americans, via the IMF, will continue to help.
However, understanding that it will be difficult to force Ukraine to return the credits, they will try to partially solve the problems of Ukraine by returning to the country the money stolen by Kolomoisky.
Due to the elections in Russia Poroshenko can be forced to attack Donbass on the eve of elections in order to involve Russia in a military standoff and to declare “Russian aggression” to the whole world, to make Moscow guilty of aggravating the situation, and to sharply strengthen the sanctions on Russia. If this scenario isn’t put into action, I don’t exclude that the US will try to force the Ukrainian authorities to execute the Minsk Agreements and to return Donbass to the structure of Ukraine.
The termination of military operations will give the chance to deal with radicals and to bring relative order to the country. It will be accompanied by a fight against Ukrainian oligarchs and the buying up of Ukrainian assets (ports, railroads, nuclear power plants) by foreign international corporations. Thus, deindustrialization, a reduction in the number of jobs, falling of the standard of living, and mass immigration connected to this from Ukraine will continue. I think that the Americans will try to press through the Rada permission to sell agricultural land in order to subsequently buy up Ukrainian land. If, after all, a course towards implementing the Minsk agreements will be taken, a “party of peace” can replace the party of war in Ukraine. But at the same time the “party of peace” will be Russophobic in the same way that the “party of war” was.
After the dismantling of the Soviet Union the US consistently moved towards the borders of Russia. They didn’t manage to do this from the East of Russia, but from the Western side. Now, having received control over Ukraine, they entrenched themselves directly near Russia’s borders. Now they decided to deliver lethal weapon to Ukraine, and nothing can be done about it. Then they will decide to develop military bases on the territory of Ukraine. And, once again, nothing can be done about it. I am sure that having received control over Ukraine, the center of the standoff between the US and Russia will move to the territory of Russia. After Ukraine is taken under control, all forces will be thrown at Russia. In order to finish off Russia, they won’t spare forces nor money.
At the same time, I wouldn’t fall into despondency. Just in contemporary history alone possession of the territory of Ukraine passed from hand to hand six times. Many times the enemy came close to Moscow. How it came to an end, you and I remember very well. The main thing is to preserve Russia. We will surely return our territories.
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