Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
The meeting between the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and the head of “Fatherland” Yulia Tymoshenko took place on February 5th before Tymoshenko’s trip to the US.
The pretext for the meeting was the situation of the candidate from the “Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko” (BYuT) in the Central Electoral Commission. The conversation lasted for about an hour. Tymoshenko was the initiator of it, but according to my friends from BYuT, Poroshenko intercepted the initiative during the conversation. He suggested to reach an agreement in general and to not waste time on trifles. Why debate about the representative in the Central Electoral Commission if it is possible to immediately reach an agreement concerning the results of elections… Poroshenko offered to Tymoshenko a wide coalition; to come to an agreement on who will be the Prime Minister and President; to stipulate in advance the quotas of everyone in parliament and the personal composition of the government; and concerning other personnel appointments. If the authorities and opposition reach an agreement among themselves, then who will be able to disrupt such an agreement? Early parliamentary elections in August were offered as an option. August, as is known, is the lowest voter turnout, and it means that it presents the best opportunities for the administrative resource. According to my friends from BYuT, Tymoshenko referred to the fact that she can’t make such decisions right now being alone, and that she needs to consult her team, which is rather big. In this team there is Gritsenko, Nalyvaichenko, and many others. I wrote about the structure of her team in an earlier article entitled “The Fight for the Ukrainian Presidency Has Begun“.
Tymoshenko already had a negative experience of negotiations over a similar union between a “hedgehog” and a “viper”. At the time Tymoshenko was dragged into negotiations between the “Party of Regions” and “BYuT” over the creation of a wide coalition. It was a similar story: Yanukovych – the President with restricted powers – is in the process of being elected into parliament, and Tymoshenko – as Prime Minister. And Ukraine turns into a parliamentary republic. Looking back, you can see that this design, thanks to the restrictions and counterbalances, would’ve been ideal for Ukraine. But when, as a result of multi-day negotiations that sometimes continued into the night, Klyuev and Tymoshenko came for the signing of the memorandum in which all agreements were documented in detail, Yanukovych organised a press conference – unexpected by all – and said that Tymoshenko contacted him with an offer to unite, to which he, having gone to church and consulted God, answered with a resolute refusal.
Some time later it became clear that God most likely has a name, and this name is Paul Manafort.
Yanukovych refused, because he was promised the US’ support on the condition of him preserving the pro-West course. As a result of negotiations with Manafort, the thesis about the Russian state language left the pre-election rhetoric. Klyuev was accused of collaborationism, and Tymoshenko received an impressive political slap in the face, as a result of which, perhaps, she was defeated by Yanukovych due to losing 2%. Don’t forget that in the opinion of her electorate, Tymoshenko’s attempt to reach an agreement with Yanukovych looked like treachery.
Having learned about the results of the meeting between Yulia and Petro, I started to watch how events unfolded. Tymoshenko flew to America. She met Trump. She returned to Ukraine. Time passed, and Tymoshenko didn’t come into contact with the President and didn’t respond to Poroshenko, having fairly judged that time is not on Poroshenko’s side. Poroshenko indeed has no time. It is necessary to do something. His approval rating falls and will continue to fall. If an agreement is going to be reached, then it is better to do it now.
It is said that Poroshenko was in a very good mood after meeting Tymoshenko. After all, Yulia didn’t tell him “no”. And this means that a chance appeared to keep the status quo. Of course, he should’ve paid for this by seriously sharing his power, but this is a normal payment. Poroshenko perfectly understands that there is a risk that he not only will lose elections, but he can lose his business and money as a result of defeat. Yulia Tymoshenko’s situation is better, but also not simple. Perhaps due to her age, this is her last elections where she can fight for the presidency. She also has risks. Poroshenko expected to convince Tymoshenko that it’s better to have a small bird in your hand than a big bird in the sky. But, seemingly, after her voyage across America Tymoshenko now thinks in a different way. It isn’t excluded that during her conversation with Poroshenko she also thought in this different way – she simply didn’t immediately tell him “no”, having decided to buy time. As I am told by my former colleagues in BYuT, Tymoshenko, in the very least, is sure of her victory and isn’t going to come to an agreement with Poroshenko.
I will separately emphasise for those who, having read some of my observations where I speak about the high chances of victory for Tymoshenko, attribute to me what I definitely don’t say – that allegedly I consider that Tymoshenko will be President. Tymoshenko has high chances of success, but it is the Americans who will define who will be the President in Ukraine. And America still hasn’t made its choice. Moreover, the further this continues, the greater the disappointment in representatives of the Ukrainian elite becomes. Such a thing can please who? At first the Americans appointed Poroshenko using their own hands, then they gave him money so that he didn’t go bankrupt, and as a result they are now compelled to create duplicating structures everywhere, such as an Anti-corruption Bureau and an Anti-corruption Court, in order bring Poroshenko and his team to heel. Why send advisers to all bodies of power in order for them to make decisions preference for the Americans if it is possible to appoint their own staff member as President of Ukraine and to remove all these problems in one fell swoop? There are more than enough “staff candidates” in Ukraine, not to mention Nalyvaichenko or Gritsenko.
We shouldn’t forget that the Americans invested heavily and continue to invest in Ukraine. In exchange they want to receive Ukrainian assets on the cheap – the land, energetics, factories. They need such authorities in Ukraine that will not only make promises like Petro Poroshenko does, but will also concretely implement the tasks set for them.
Recently, the Ukrainian blogger Aleksander Dubinsky wrote about the creation of a joint ruling party with which he will enter parliamentary and presidential elections as though it is a fact.
Allegedly, this party will be called either “United Force” or “United European Force”, and will include Klitschko’s “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko”, “People’s Front”, and Groysman, and will be supported by the financial resource of Dmitry Firtash and Valery Khoroshkovsky.
I can’t personally confirm this information. I said all the time that Petro Poroshenko conducted negotiations with “People’s Front” about an association, but Petro Poroshenko with his falling rating becomes more and more toxic for possible partners, and there isn’t anyone interested in tying their future to him yet, according to my information. All representatives of today’s Ukrainian elite understand that, having missed out by not placing a stake on the winner, they will unambiguously fall under the subsequent dispossession carried out by their more successful colleagues. The more time passes, the more Poroshenko turns into a “toxic partner” – a politician to who it is better to not tie your future. Poroshenko, on the contrary, will try to cement relations, to drag others into his coalition – to make as many politicians as possible his colleagues. This is a way of tying everyone down and thus trying to remain in power – the longer this will last, the more difficult it will become for him to do this, because now many believe that they will enter the “mass grave” – the “mass grave of Poroshenko” – instead of the coalition of “winners”.
At first I wanted to call my article – “Mass grave”. But then I thought that this phrase isn’t suitable. Near our mass graves the Eternal flame burns, and children bring flowers to them. Nobody will bring flowers to this grave. That’s why it is better to title this article with a word that signifies a place or construction for the mass burial of the carcasses of infectious animals* – “biotermicheskaya yama”, “piryatinskaya yama”, “cheshskaya yama”, “yama Bekkari”, or, which is more commonly known, “skotomogilynik”.
It is a pity that when Poroshenko will leave, those who, as a minimum, are no better than he is will take his place. It is a pity that it is impossible to forcibly gather all supporters of Poroshenko – together with him – and his opponents – who today are yearning for power – in one place and bury them. All of them are supporters of war. Moreover, this should be done according to all the rules of veterinary medicine. In such a way that the infection is never revived in Ukraine again.
* In the Eastern world the listed terms are different names of the same thing – “cattle mortuaries” based on a special strategy developed for (dead) livestock disposal. One such name given to a construction like this is “biothermal pit” (biotermicheskaya yama), which, as the name implies, is just an underground pit 10m in depth that is designed in such a way that the corpses of animals decompose faster. Its structure ensures the rapid death of most pathogens.
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