Oleg Tsarev on the Zelensky-Avakov- Kolomoisky Triangle

Avakov and Kolomoisky have in the Rada about 50 of their deputies who will rigidly oppose the president if he does not fulfil his obligations to them. Local elections can be held if the Rada adopts Medvedchuk’s law on the autonomy of Donbass, claims the former deputy of the Ukrainian Parliament Oleg Tsarev.

Oleg, the chairman of the National Police of Ukraine Sergey Knyazev, in coordination with the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov, dismissed from his post the head of the main department in the Dnepropetrovsk region Vitaly Glukhoverya, and prior to this in Odessa the former head of the regional police Dmitry Golovin was detained. What stands behind all this? Zelensky digs under Avakov? If yes, that what for?

During a press conference in ‘ukraine.ru’ within the framework of the special project on the Ukrainian file, which took place the day after the election, I said that the main task of Vladimir Zelensky after the election is to preserve for himself all the security agencies.

Zelensky’s faction is itself capable of independently creating a majority, but is it Kolomoisky who possesses the golden ticket.

I at the time did not know the exact results of the elections. I said that ‘Servant of the People’ will receive 150 deputies according to lists and hundred majoritarians of the ‘Servant of the People’ party, and another about 40 majoritarians, who were not from the ‘Servant of the People’ party, but who are ready to join Zelensky’s party. In principle, now he has an approximate number of deputies somewhere near a constitutional majority. However, anyway, Kolomoisky’s influence remained. Zelensky’s task now is to make sure that he isn’t dependent on anybody in his future governance of the state.

As we see, Zelensky rather competently carries out his activity.

An enormous quantity of advance payments was issued during the electoral campaign — for those who will be the Prime Minister and the Interior Minister. The Ministry of Internal Affairs was left for Avakov as a minimum. Kolomoisky and Avakov were promised control over all law enforcement bodies. Prior to the parliamentary elections, it was possible to appoint the people of Kolomoisky and Avakov in the SBU. They all submitted one person. Nevertheless, Zelensky did not make these appointments. This means that Zelensky wants to keep control for himself. If to leave such control to Kolomoisky and Avakov, then over time they will control both deputies and ministers. So then in fact they will control the entire process.

Whether it will be succeeded to push Avakov aside or not, it is difficult for me to predict. But such work is unambiguously conducted. We observe this now.”

Can Avakov answer Zelensky with something?

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“Avakov has about 20 deputies in the Verkhovna Rada. Kolomoisky has about 45-50 deputies. Many of this number of deputies are linked: a person can be a person of both of them. Together they have about 50 deputies. This is a rather serious number of votes. Moreover, they are rather enough skilled, unlike Zelensky’s deputies.

When Zelensky’s approval rating unexpectedly went up, having overtaken Tymoshenko, Avakov met Kolomoisky. He took an interest, like saying: I helped Tymoshenko so that everything would be normal during the campaign, and what now to do with the implementation of the undertaken obligations to me (Avakov planned that the Prime Minister’s post would be offered to him, and at minimum the post of Interior Minister would be left for him)? Kolomoisky responded to this by saying that it is nothing grave — obligations to Avakov will be transferred from Tymoshenko to Zelensky.

Now for Zelensky it is important not to receive very strong opposition in parliament. But he has every chance of receiving it.

Look, Medvedchuk and Tymoshenko oppose him; if Yuliya won’t be in power, then there will be Poroshenko. And Avakov will also enter there when Zelensky’s approval rating will drop.

Avakov is a very serious figure, after all, he is the Interior Minister, he seriously increased his fortune and his ties, including with radicals; he has his own deputies in the Verkhovna Rada.

That’s why Zelensky has two choices: either, like Poroshenko, opt to cooperate with Avakov and receive an independent figure in the government, or not to opt for it and receive problems already now, but having reserved the governance of the Interior Ministry for himself.”

So will there be local elections? It is said that Zelensky wants to appoint them for the third week of November.

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“Here there is a collision that is not so simple to bypass. This concerns voting – within the framework of the Minsk Agreements on making changes – to the Constitution, having given autonomous status to Donbass; to carry out a prisoner and detainee exchange in the ‘all on all’ format; to disengage the troops; and the next point is the organisation of local elections.

If Medvedchuk’s law on the autonomy of Donbass is adopted, then simultaneous elections in Ukraine and Donbass will be held. In my opinion, this option of a way out is more preferable for Zelensky.

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