Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
People in Ukraine have received their first bills for utilities. Bills that for the majority of the population are difficult or impossible to pay. The population familiarised themselves with the electronic Declarations of officials and deputies. The Declarations obviously demonstrated that the government deceives and steals. The folk-saying “waiting three years for the promised goods” does not apply in the case of Poroshenko. It’s been three years since the election of Poroshenko, but none of his promises have been fulfilled. The Visa-free regime, the fight against corruption. The level of support for the government among the population diminished to a critical level. Now Tymoshenko has the highest rating. After the defeat of the Party of Regions only Yulia Tymoshenko’s party remains in a developed structure. Many Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs addressed her with a request to combine efforts. At first glance, the ideal conditions formed in order to take power into her own hands. According to the scenario, the demand for early presidential and parliamentary elections had to be put forward during the protests. But, nevertheless, organising a Maidan failed. Why did it fail, and what will happen next?
Let’s begin with the President. Inside the country, Poroshenko has no support. From abroad – none either. The oligarchs are against him. His doesn’t have his own team. The events of the last Maidan, the result of which was Yanukovych’s departure, stand for all to see. Poroshenko took the threat of a coup very seriously. The problem of Tymoshenko is in fact that she made a common mistake. As Winston Churchill said: “Generals always prepare for the past war…”, so in this way Tymoshenko, having before her eyes the last Maidan, believed that it was a successful scenario that will bring her to power. She made a mistake. The situation has changed.
The first reason for the failure of Tymoshenko is that Petro Poroshenko is not Yanukovych. Poroshenko has effectively blocked the center of the city, and put armed police on the streets of Kiev. Let me remind you that Yanukovych did not give the order to equip Berkut with firearms, despite the fact that the confrontation had already lasted many months. Heads of bus depots that were supposed to bring protesters to Kiev received serious orders not only from law enforcers, but also from radical nationalists. The owners of transport companies were intimidated. If you want to live, if you want to save your transport, stay at home. As a result, the buses did not depart.
The second reason is that he discussed separately with the partners of Tymoshenko in the opposition, the result of which the majority did not support her.
The President of Ukraine very skilfully pitted Lyashko, Tymoshenko, Avakov, and Sadovoy against one another, scaring them that if Tymoshenko wins she will not share her fruits with them. Allegedly, if she now promises them all of this, when she comes to power she will deceive them.
Money also played a role. Remember how Lyashko prevented Shukhevych from impeach Poroshenko in the Verkhovna Rada.
Yulia Tymoshenko has lost the first chapter of this new protest, because she was over-confident. It turned out that a high rating, a developed political structure, dissatisfaction with the authorities in Ukraine today – all this is not enough to come to power. Ukraine has changed.
The laws of development according to Hegel do not work in the Ukraine. Instead of spiraling upward in regards to Ukraine, we have a downwards spiral motion. When we think that is it already the bottom, and cannot go any lower, history, having made another turn of the spiral downwards, proves the opposite.
Earlier, in Ukraine, there was the possibility to come to power by winning a political confrontation. Even this process was not pure to the end. The money and media of oligarchs were used, which further allowed access to state resources and assets. The outcome of the election was influenced by other States, such as Russia and the United States, but this influence was not decisive.
On the new stage of the spiral, Ukraine came to a situation when the comprador power in the country, following the example of Latin American banana republics in a similar situation, is changed by a foreign owner or is eliminated by an armed coup. The version when the coup occurs with the approval of the Supreme suzerain is also possible. Aside from the fact bananas don’t grow in Ukraine, the country today is not much different from Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, and some other countries that found themselves under American protectorate in the last century. Dictatorship, death squads (in the case of Ukraine it is Nazis, activists, and radicals), which punish political opponents, and journalists, thanks to which the political regime, despite falling living standards, can be preserved for decades. Moreover, the change of personalities in power does not change the regime itself.
The main conclusion from the failed autumn protests is that in the government “elite circle” of power, the militants bypassed the politicians. It means the proximity to suzerain by level of influence and the significance of guns is now more important than rankings, than support inside the country, and developed political structure.
In other words, it became clear that without the participation of the team of Yatsenyuk, Avakov, Turchynov and Parubiy, coming to power in Ukraine is impossible. Yatsenyuk is responsible for communication with the master. Avakov for the radicals. Turchynov is the Secretary of the NSDC, and Parubiy, the speaker of Verkhovna Rada, assumes the burden of power in case of the removal or elimination of Poroshenko, according to the current Constitution.
Conclusions about the failed protests of Tymoshenko are lying on the surface. It’s not by accident that Kolomoisky, a few weeks ago, held talks with the group of Avakov. They agreed to cooperate according to the scheme: financing is now in exchange for closing criminal cases, and returning control over Ukrnafta is later. Kolomoisky already started to implement his part of the deal, instructing to start a campaign in the controlled media against political rivals of the group of Avakov. Now the controlled-by-him TV channels are destroying Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, and Saakashvili.
Yulia Tymoshenko also drew conclusions. Earlier I wrote that the group of Avakov has already conducted negotiations, but did not agree with Tymoshenko over the division of power after the resignation of Poroshenko. Now the situation is changing, and just a few days ago there was a meeting between Avakov, Yuriy Lutsenko, and Tymoshenko. Under the guisep that Poroshenko is allegedly flushing them according to the ia agreement with Russia, and that they agreed on joint action against Poroshenko. And although mistrust between them exists (no wonder, all present have been in politics for a long time, they deceived each other during this time many times), but we can say that the process of unification of all against Poroshenko continues. It is difficult to say what such confidence is based on, but the group of Yatsenyuk-Avakov is sure that they are able to organize such pressure on Poroshenko from Ukraine, as well as from the USA, which will force him to resign.
I’m sure this is just the beginning. Alliances will form and break. But, nevertheless, there is every chance that, in the spring, not only parliamentary but presidential elections will take place.
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