Oleg Tsarev: Savchenko Nevertheless Reaches a New Political Level

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard



The General Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine suspects Savchenko of preparing an act of terrorism in the building of the Verkhovna Rada. The General Prosecutor already submitted a proposal to the Verkhovna Rada for bringing Savchenko to criminal liability, her detention, and then arrest.

Is there at least some element of truth in Nadezhda Savchenko preparing a coup in Ukraine? I consider that Savchenko was provoked into committing such actions. Attention should be drawn to the fact that the head of the 8th regiment of military investigation (in Russia it is called GRU, and in Ukraine, in order to differ from Russia, it is called GUR), was in contact with her, the same one who transported Ruban. Military intelligence has two bases. One is called “Ostrov” [island – ed], because is it on an island in Kiev, and the second one is in Khmelnytsky. The 8th regiment that is based in Khmelnytsky is completely under the CIA’s control. The guys from this regiment fly to the US.

The American instructors carry out work with them, they are paid money. It is they who stand behind the elimination of commanders in Donbass – such as Givi, Motorola, and many others, behind provocations, and behind attempts to stage acts of sabotage in Crimea and Moscow. These people, as far as I understand, came into contact with Savchenko and – knowing her moods – proposed a provocative plan to her. After all, she, like the vast majority of the population of Ukraine, has an especially negative attitude towards the authorities. So, Savchenko was proposed to participate in some actions that aim to implement a coup in Kiev. Moreover, I assume that what Lutsenko says is the truth, since I understand who stands behind this provocation, and I think that there can be both video and audio recordings, and everything can be rather well documented. There was a need to be a rather naive person in order to not figure out the situation, having succumbed to this provocation. But, by all accounts, Nadezhda Savchenko succumbed to it.

So why then did she return to Ukraine from Europe? Because she is a soldier and because she correctly understands today’s political situation. In Ukraine the government is replaced rather often. I observed such a phenomenon that when you are in opposition and when the authorities are known thieves, you go on television or to a meeting and say banal things, and this simply shakes the audience and you are loudly applauded. But if there isn’t any trust in you or in the team you are in (this applies to Yanukovych when he came to power and started the appropriation of business, corruption, and so on), then you cease to go on television — up to the events on Maidan. I myself understood: whatever I now say – even the most correct things, people won’t perceive them. They will think that everything is a lie, they will wave you away and look through the prism of hostility. This is like a telescope: when you in opposition, the people look at you through a magnifying glass, and when you are in the team of the untrusted authorities, they look at you from another side, shrinking everything.

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Now the same is happening. Whatever Lutsenko says, whatever video proof he presents, the sympathies of people will all the same be on the side of Savchenko. Very few people speak about it aloud, but when the prosecutor said that Nadezhda Savchenko wanted to throw grenades into the governmental loge, blow up the cupola of the Rada with a mortar, and shoot all survivors with a machine gun, the overwhelming part of the population of Ukraine thought: “It is a pity that she didn’t manage to do it”!

That’s why Savchenko came back to Kiev. Even if she is deprived of her immunity and the title “Hero of Ukraine” and will be put in prison, she will unambiguously at some point in time become a heroine. She moved in a standard circle like Joan of Arc — she was a hero, and then was accused of sorcery and was burned. Now it’s at the accusation stage. But our era is more civilised, politicians are released from prison – look at Yulia Tymoshenko and Yury Lutsenko, they came out from prison with an improved approval rating.

Yes, for the Ukrainian consciousness Savchenko is a kind of Joan of Arc. In many respects she became a symbol of what happened at the beginning of 2014. And when this symbol says that the entire “Revolution of dignity” is the work of the West and that the Heavenly Hundred perished at the hands of the current governors — what happens in the Ukrainian mass consciousness and what can it lead to? The human psyche is very flexible. At the time of Maidan, when I said that in the country a coup was being prepared, many objected, saying: “Oleg, it is impossible. People passed through the ‘Orange revolution’, people saw what it turned into and received an inoculation. Thank God, such things are already impossible in our country”. It turns out that it is possible. Do you remember what Petro Poroshenko’s approval rating was after the “Orange revolution” – when he had a conflict with Yulia Tymoshenko, and they mutually annihilated each other? Some time passed, Poroshenko was elected the President of Ukraine, and now it is Tymoshenko who is the leader in Ukrainian political ratings.

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People can be mistaken an infinite number of times. Moreover, they are capable of justifying themselves, of finding an explanation for their actions, and of being mistaken again and again. If you consider that someone will go crazy and will take their own life because they went to Maidan, threw stones and Molotov cocktails at “Berkut officers”, and looked at what all of this led to, then you are mistaken. Mass consciousness will now turn its revolutionary energy that wasn’t completely utilised against those who they themselves placed in the throne. Certainly, such are the features of the human psyche. In those cases where it is necessary to blame yourself, consciousness very quickly looks for those who are guilty besides you. And in this sense representatives of today’s authorities will receive a double portion of hatred from the citizens of Ukraine.

The thing that can reconcile the inhabitants of Donbass and the inhabitants of the rest of Ukraine is hatred for the current government. This is a good platform for establishing dialogue so that communication starts and the negative of war is removed.

But there is also another side to the question — Kiev gauleiters and foreign masters will without fail try to use the case of Savchenko and Ruban as anti-Russian and anti-Donetsk propaganda. I understand that Nadezhda Savchenko, inexperienced in politics, could fall for such silly foul-play and provocations. But the actions of Donetsk leaders are unclear. How was it possible to come into contact with GUR members, people who almost every day work in saboteur groups on the territory of Donetsk? How was it possible to not understand that it was a provocation? And how was it possible to not understand that this provocation will be used? Okay, Nadezhda Savchenko chooses her own fate. But among the people who were detained there is an enormous quantity who sincerely worked for the benefit of Ukraine, and they were thus simply used – after all, they didn’t follow Nadezhda Savchenko for the money. And there is something else that’s unpleasant: the Russian Federation can also be accused as a result of this action.

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Further, Petro Poroshenko can stage acts of terrorism on the territory of Ukraine to raise his approval rating. And now after this story will receive an accent – the corresponding highlighting in the media, so if earlier nobody believed that Russian saboteur groups work, then now Poroshenko can himself stage acts of terrorism and blame Russia and the DPR. And public opinion will assume that, perhaps, this is the case. This situation not only struck a blow on Nadezhda Savchenko, but also, of course, it has far-reaching political consequences.

After all, Savchenko as a result of all these stories nevertheless reaches a new political level. Even if she will appear in prison in the near future, her political activity and possible political progress won’t stop at all. What political forces in Ukraine in the form of parties, movements, and personnel are capable of supporting Savchenko and becoming her military and political groups?

Today the entire political field of Ukraine is actually divided into two camps. The small camp is Poroshenko’s supporters, and more numerous camp is those who tie their fate to Yulia Tymoshenko. There are also players who fairly believe that approval ratings in Ukraine are not the most important thing now – the most important thing is who the US will place a stake on. And they wait until the US will place its stake. And there are those who accurately know that they will abandon Poroshenko – they simply wait for that moment when it will be possible to so with the smallest losses. I.e., to use the fact that he is now in power to maximally gather some financial and other dividends – and then to betray him, but to do this at a good moment.

That’s why it is impossible to say that right now someone from the political forces of this or that camp supports Savchenko. At the present time everyone will disown her. The group of Medvedchuk “Ukrainian choice” already publicly disowned her. And this is correct because they are now subjected to very serious blows. Of course, in order to not bear political risks even earlier, Yulia Tymoshenko – like a very wise politician – also disowned her. But this is a temporary situation. Savchenko’s future still lies ahead.

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