NEW – June 20, 2022
I have already written that the West is trying not to cross certain red lines, including not supplying tanks and offensive weapons, which can seriously affect the course of the military campaign. In response, Russia does not “Kalibr” Kiev, the electric substations that supply the cities, and does not destroy the transport infrastructure.
Apparently, this is the case. Otherwise, it is not possible to explain what is happening now.
Of course, such agreements, if they exist, drastically reduce losses on both sides. Having received the latest generation of weapons, Ukraine would be able to strike far into the Russian territory. In general, there are some risks even now, and these risks are taken seriously. Remember how the air parade over Red Square was canceled. Bad weather. Well yes. For military aviation, the weather supposedly matters.
Having received the latest generation of missiles and drones, Ukraine is guaranteed to transfer the war to the territory of the Russian Federation. Without a doubt, it will strike Sevastopol and the Crimean Bridge, and not only.
Russia, in turn, could destroy bridges, tunnels and electrical substations, causing a transport and energy collapse. Oil with high voltage in transformers is a dangerous combination in itself, and if to add a certain number of missiles, it is guaranteed to disable the electrical substations that feed the cities, returning Ukraine to those times that modern Ukrainian nazis like most – embroidery, britzka, rakes, home-made vodka and cossacks. The times were glorious, but Ukraine without fuel, the supply of weapons and ammunition, without communication, with destroyed command centres and will not last a week against the Russian army. A week of fighting and then another six months to restore the destroyed infrastructure and to cleanse the country from the unfinished Banderists, numerous hetmans, atamans and bandits. But it would already be a police operation.
But Russia does not do this. And it does not do it because, for its part, it does not want to cross certain red lines. Russia strikes only military infrastructure.
On the other hand, the West and Ukraine are quietly, step by step, increasing pressure on Russia. The “Moskva” cruiser was destroyed, the “Bekh” tugboat was put out of service, oil rigs and Snake Island were shelled, the border territories of the Russian Federation are constantly being shelled. Until November, until the US elections are held, there will be no proposals for peace from the West. But then they will. Now Putin is being blamed for inflation and problems in the economy. After November, this will not be necessary. The continuation of the confrontation with Russia will bring more problems to the West than to Russia. This will be especially clear on the eve of winter, when Russia’s role as a supplier of energy resources is especially great. Most likely, peace will imply the preservation of the status quo. Everyone will leave behind the territories that they control. I myself am a supporter of the liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine. But the decision will be made by the leadership of the Russian Federation, whether to negotiate or not. This article is not intended to discuss the conditions and possible outcomes of negotiations. It is important for me that all parties are preparing for negotiations in December.
The West, before signing peace agreements, is doing everything so that Russia does not take Odessa. Without Odessa, the value of Ukraine for the West is significantly reduced. The Intermarium project is not feasible without Odessa. The Intermarium project is important in order to get a sanitary cordon controlled by the UK between Asia and Europe from the Black Sea to the Baltic.
Separating Russia and China from Europe by controlled countries, thereby gaining control over Russia, China and Europe, is a long-standing dream of Great Britain.
Before the autumn-winter negotiations, it will be important for the UK to defend Odessa. For Russia – to take control of Odessa. In order to defend and unblock Odessa, the UK will do anything. Without Odessa, England’s plans will not come to fruition. Therefore, the UK will cross all imaginable and unimaginable red lines to achieve its goals. There will be a supply of any weapons. And if this is the case, we must be ready to cross our red lines in turn.
Oleg Tsarev
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