Oleg Tsarev: The First Steps of Zelensky’s Presidency, Where Poroshenko Will Flee, and What Tymoshenko Will Do

On Sunday, April 21st, in Ukraine there will be the second round of the election, in which Vladimir Zelensky will surely be the winner. The former Rada deputy and political emigrant Oleg Tsarev told “ukraine.ru” website who can become Prime Minister, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Prosecutor General under the new head of state, and what Tymoshenko, Boyko, and Vilkul will be involved in.

Oleg Anatolyevich, the presidential election in Ukraine is coming to an end. It’s intriguing, who will win?

“I will repeat what I said long ago. There is no intrigue in the results of the election. Zelensky will win.”

Yes, indeed you were one of the first who spoke about the lack of an alternative to Zelensky winning. But anyway it is fascinating to watch the Ukrainian election. Videos about cocaine and Zelensky, billboards with Putin and Poroshenko, Manzhosov’s press conference, Poroshenko’s appearance on 1+1…

“Let’s look at these events. In many respects we are indebted to the Israeli political strategist Moshe Klughaft for such a vivid standoff.

Proceeding from his actions, there is such feeling that he, unlike other employees of the headquarters of Poroshenko and Petro himself, still believes that Poroshenko can win.

Although it is possible that everything is about the fee. Like in that joke: ‘Did you order a fight? What, you didn’t? It’s not important. It was paid for’.

My acquaintances who work in Poroshenko’s headquarters say that all the team led by Oleg Medvedev strongly objected to what we observe now. But Poroshenko listens only to the Israeli political strategist. All these videos against Zelensky and billboards, and many other things are his creative work. But I am forced to state that either he does not understand our people, or he simply works off his fee. Already nothing will help Petro Poroshenko.”

You say that Poroshenko’s political strategists were against such creative work?

“Yes. I claim that they were against it. Listen. It is obvious to all that Poroshenko will lose. In his situation it would be correct to do everything right now to improve relations with Zelensky — a person who his destiny will further depend on. For this purpose it was necessary to carry out a campaign in the spirit of mutual respect. So that upon its end it could be possible to shake hands with each other. I think that as a result of Poroshenko’s actions, Zelensky will not shake his hand after the election. What Poroshenko is doing now is stupid and short-sighted. This is the other side of the coin — of his fighting qualities. If Yanukovych had at least even a bit of such qualities. Petro is a fighter and not a coward, he will fight up to the end, but now it would be smarter to surrender.

The subject of analyses on drugs and rollers is the idea of Moshe Klughaft. The idea did not bring that effect on which counted Moshe. But it is possible to tell definitely that the talented political strategist seeded seeds which will ascend as soon as Zelensky’s rating falls. Later half a year many will begin to remember that independent laboratory Zelensky did not make the tests.”

Well. You spoke about his videos Can you speak about Manzhosov. What was it?

“What do we know from the media? That Denis Manzhosov was the best friend and schoolmate of the presidential candidate Vladimir Zelensky. They shared the same desk. Denis Manzhosov, Vladimir Zelensky, and Aleksandr Pikalov together in ’95 formed the team ’95th quarter’. Then after Maidan they went their separate ways. One my friends says that Manzhosov after Maidan did not accept the anti-Russian campaign that ’95th quarter’ got involved. It’s like saying: ‘Denis said that you are a Jew and I am Russian. Where are we, and where are Banderists?’ And in reply he heard: ‘What is the difference if Kolomoisky is paying?’ Although it shouldn’t excluded that this is a fiction, and that a conflict happened over household affairs. This isn’t important. Denis came to the press conference in advance, and he saw there something that alerted him. And then he was called and was warned that he may be killed during the press conference. After this he left. He came to the ‘Pryamoy’ TV channel, to the host Ganapolsky, where he did not meet Ganapolsky’s expectation, and didn’t confirm the information that Zelensky is a drug addict. Apparently, Denis wasn’t even going to say anything like that – which Poroshenko’s headquarters was expecting – at the press conference about Zelensky.”

Then Ganapolsky tried to delete this interview from everywhere, since it is shameful for him. Tell me, the call to Manzhosov was a threat from Zelensky, or it was Zelensky’s sympathisers who leaked information to him from Poroshenko or the SBU?

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“I don’t know. It was most likely someone from the staff of the agency where he was going to hold a press conference. I think that it is correct that he left. The risk that he could’ve been blown up together with the room is rather real, let’s agree. Then it would be very easy to pin it on Zelensky. I think what Denis was correct when he said that he is not an enemy for Zelensky. Yes, it’s like: ‘We had creative disagreements. But nothing more’. Thus he secured himself.”

The initiator of the scandalous arrival of the president at the 1+1 broadcast is also Moshe Klughaft?

“According to my information, the scandal at the 1+1 studio has a background. Poroshenko understands how the election will end. That’s why recently he once again spoke with Volker, saying that he would like to work in the UN and to live in the US. Such a scheme at least to some extent guarantees immunity after the election. Understand that Poroshenko is submerged in big blood. And like every criminal, he is afraid of retribution. Volker responded by saying that the US waits for him, but later, and that, say, ‘I will ask someone to talked it over with Merkel and Macron so that they shelter you.”

It turns out what Poroshenko flew to Germany and France for a shelter?

“I was told yes. For a shelter.”

He offered something to Merkel and Macron in exchange for this help?

“Yes. He offered. A lot of things. Including gas transmission consortium between Ukraine and Europe. According to Schröder’s scheme, Poroshenko wants to stake out for himself the place of the head of consortium. It is clear that the consortium is a bluff. Poroshenko even now does not influence anything, not to mention about the post-election time.

When Petro Poroshenko was informed that Zelensky arrived in France, he was very nervous that Zelensky will break his game. That he will say something like: ‘Poroshenko is a corrupt official, and we will judge him in Ukraine’. He came to the studio of 1+1 under the influence of emotions. Coming to the studio was his own personal decision. It has a lot of risks. Any political strategist would not recommend it. If the host in the studio did not become puzzled, then they could just crush on the spot his already unenviable political future.”

If you consider that there wont be any intrigue during the election, and that Zelensky will win, let’s talk about what will happen after the election. Zelensky will move towards the parliamentary republic?

“No. Appetite comes while eating. Both Zelensky and his environment are against reducing the powers of the president. If in the short term a majority will not be formed under Zelensky, he will dissolve the Rada. Nobody will look at the constitution. I think that Zelensky’s team will try to discharge Poroshenko’s ministers from work, without asking the Rada, somehow, for example via the decision of the National Security and Defence Council.”

Who will be the Prime Minister?

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“I would give several names of politicians who stand a chance and whose candidacies were discussed: Avakov, Khoroshkovsky, and Palitsa. Kolomoisky does not object to all these candidates. If Kolomoisky keeps his influence, then it will be Palitsa. If he starts to be pushed away, then either Khoroshkovsky or Avakov would suit him. He also has arrangements with them. If Igor Valeryevich is pushed away seriously and for a long time, then there being a fourth candidate who would suit the Americans and Zelensky personally is not excluded. Now, before the election, everything will be promised by all. Only after elections will it be possible to speak about appointments seriously.

Zelensky already showed that he is capable of an independent game. After elections he can ignore all agreements and promises.”

Earlier you said that Ivan Bakanov, the head of Zelensky’s headquarters and childhood friend, will most likely be the head of his administration. Who has the highest chance of being the head of the SBU and Prosecutor’s Office?

“I think that western partners can push Nalyvaichenko or Smeshko forward for the position of head of the SBU. On the other hand, despite the fact that even earlier there was a lot of foreign agents in the SBU, lately so many leading staff of the Ukrainian special services underwent recruitment and training in the US that it is difficult to say who will be the final choice.

I only know for sure that skilled personnel of American intelligence are already working in Zelensky’s headquarters. Not just work, but really take part in the management of the campaign. They have a veto. It means that an action or meeting will be cancelled if the officer considers it to be inexpedient. It is obvious that the Americans will try to put their person in the SBU.

As for the prosecutor’s office, only one candidate was named so far. It is the graduate of the University of Oregon in ‘Russian language and literature’ and of the Berkeley Law School with a Ukrainian surname — Marta Borshch . It is precisely her who processed, as the prosecutor of Northern California, the case against the former Prime Minister of Ukraine Pavel Lazarenko. Right now she has her own lawyer business in the US, she came to Ukraine, she gave lectures on law and repeatedly said that she with pleasure would fight corruption in Ukraine.

It’s not a fact that she will become the final choice, but whoever becomes the chief prosecutor of the country, I would recommend to them to carry out an investigation into all the activity of Lutsenko during his time as the Prosecutor-General, and in particular into the fact that at the order of the acting prosecutor of the country Yury Lutsenko a copy of the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations of Ukraine was made on foreign storage. Moreover, this manipulation with the register contradicts the current legislation so much so that the Prosecutor General’s Office didn’t immediately find the performing firm that did this work. To be more precise, there were those who refused. Allegedly hacker attacks served as an excuse to manipulate the register. And copying the register was allegedly necessary in order to save the register. Allegedly, because in reality there weren’t any hacker attacks. As far as I know, the purpose of the above described manipulation was to keep the opportunity to scrub the register after the election at the moment of merging and recovering the databases from the criminal cases that Avakov threatened to initiate about electoral falsifications. It appeared that there weren’t that many criminal cases during the election, but the crime committed at the order of the Prosecutor-General in the form of a violation of order No. 69 from 17.08.2012 (‘On the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations’, which approved the provision of the procedure for maintaining the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations) is on the surface, and the guilty persons must be punished.”

Concerning Lutsenko, his prospects are clear. What prospects does Tymoshenko have?

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Yuliya Tymoshenko had a psychologically difficult pre-election night in the first round. By the morning she realised her defeat and built a strategy for the future.

There is no desire to see her in the team of winners in any quality. And in that case many years of being the opposition lie ahead of her. Opposition to Zelensky.

Since the first round, it is precisely Zelensky who is the main opponent. Poroshenko is done. It’s Zelensky’s team that at a certain period of time will be called ‘Vlad’s criminal authority’ and regime.

Tymoshenko’s refusal to bring people and deputies despite the fact that everything was ready, as well as the refusal to participate in a debate as a referee, means that Tymoshenko decided not to help Zelensky.

I will accurately say that Yuliya Tymoshenko is one of the most experienced Ukrainian politicians, if not THE most experienced. And the matter not only concerns the duration of political life.

The matter is what this political life like. The logic of political processes in Ukraine indicates that Tymoshenko will head the anti-presidential opposition in Ukraine.

And this opposition to Zelensky will be strong. If Poroshenko will be squeezed out of Poroshenko, then the right-wing electorate of Poroshenko will switch to Tymoshenko.

If he’s not squeezed out, then don’t be surprised if you see Tymoshenko uniting with Poroshenko in the fight against Zelensky. In the past they already repeatedly were at war and then reconciled.”

But, obviously, Zelensky also doesn’t imagine either Boyko, or Murayev with Vilkul being in power. Thus, they will also be opposition?

“Yes. Obviously, none of them will be taken in power. I do not think that Zelensky will risk to go against the opinion of radicals and nationalists. In Zelensky’s team there will be former regionals, but they won’t have public posts. Most of the population of Ukraine supports ending the war. The chances that Zelensky will agree to implement the Minsk Agreements is rather big. Thus, the former regionals need to prepare themselves to bring Donbass into the structure of Ukraine. It is unlikely that it will happen prior to this parliamentary election, but it is quite possible that it will happen after them. I think that there is a high probability that the former regionals will unite into one political force and even, perhaps, under the brand of the Party of Regions. If this happens, then it will seriously hit Zelensky. Not because regionals pose a threat to Zelensky as oppositionists. The oligarchs and businesses that stand behind Boyko and Vilkul cannot be in rigid opposition to the power by definition. The matter is that if regionals will unite, then the Southeast of Ukraine will vote for them, and not for Zelensky. The Ukrainian map will be tri-colored. The West – yellowy-brown, the center – green, and the Southeast – white-blue.”

What will Zelensky be like as president?

“I personally am not acquainted with Zelensky. It is difficult for me to form his psychological portrait. I know him only from what others have said. I think that it will be difficult for him. Everyone will constantly wait for jokes and reprises from him. Worst of all, if he fights against this via his hyper seriousness. Then he will go from being a funny clown into an angry clown. And this is the favourite character for screenwriters in horror films. There is nothing more horrifying than a clown that isn’t funny.”

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