Oleg Tsarev: The Formation of a New Government in Ukraine Will Help Zelensky Eliminate Avakov

The former mayor of Kharkov and former “Opposition bloc” deputy Mikhail Dobkin said that he plans to fight for the chair of the mayor of Kiev. According to him, it is impossible to stand aside and watch what is being created in Kiev. A Kiev mayor election is planned for October 25th 2020.

Also, on June 18th it became known that the Verkhovna Rada failed to vote for the adoption of the economic program of the government of Denis Shmygal. In total, 207 people voted “for” the adoption of the program, which made it impossible to present the government with immunity for a year.

The former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Oleg Tsarev, in a conversation with the Novorossiya News Agency, said that he supports Dobkin’s words about his desire to participate for the post of the mayor of the Ukrainian capital. According to him, it is only a part of a game of politics.

“Mikhail Dobkin is my former colleague. He is certainly a very bright and charismatic leader capable of gaining a certain number of votes across Kiev. I do not want to offend Mikhail at all, but it is obvious to everyone that it will be very difficult to win an election in Kiev after that anti-Russian information pumping that has taken place. They often run for mayor in a certain city not to win, but to play on their participation or non-participation, in order to give their votes in exchange for rewards: either finances or mutual agreements. For example, I help you in Kiev, and you help me in Kharkov. I think that in the case of Mikhail this is exactly such an option.

The radical electorate is a very narrow segment (8-15% of the population). If one political force is elected in Verkhovna Rada local elections, then it will play a rather serious role in local councils and the Ukrainian Parliament. If several political forces are elected, then it is much simpler to reach an agreement, manipulate, and exploit. After Vakarchuk announced his departure from the Rada, the electorate of this party went over to Petro Poroshenko’s side. This is not really good for Zelensky.

On the one hand, Zelensky does not like it very much when people come to him at night and shout outside his windows. However, from a political point of view, it is favourable to nurture a competitor to Petro Poroshenko. I have no doubt that these protests and Sternenko‘s behaviour are coordinated with the President’s Office. In Zelensky’s environment there are a lot of people who sympathise with the radical nationalist ideology. They incline the President to play these games”, said the former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada.

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Zelensky and his western curators are afraid of the current Minister of Internal Affairs, continues the expert. They will try to remove him during a change of government.

“It is obvious that Shmygal’s team is weak. Both Zelensky and Akhmetov, who lobbied for Shmygal to get his position, and also Soros, understand this. Kolomoisky is against Shmygal, as he is Akhmetov’s protege. If they voted for the government’s program, the new government would get immunity for a year. As far as I know, the President’s Office and Zelensky did not exert much effort to vote ‘for’ the program of the government. What is the result? Now the President’s Office is saying that a new government should be formed by the autumn – it is not yet known whether it will be before the local elections or after. Moreover, along with the replacement of the Prime Minister, it is possible to solve the problem of Arsen Avakov being in the government.

Soros’s entourage is in favour of removing him, Zelensky and the President’s Office feel threatened by Avakov. It is quite difficult to vote for his resignation individually. There are about 50 deputies of Kolomoisky who will categorically oppose it. Avakov has a financial resource that he can play with. He only recently met with Yuliya Tymoshenko and reached an agreement with her about assistance. The Interior Minister can talk to other political forces, so it will be quite difficult to remove him separately, but to dissolve the entire government, and not to take Avakov into the new government, is a more feasible scenario,” the politician stressed.

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The interlocutor of the agency notes that local government elections will become a real battlefield, control over local councils mean control over future republics in case of the disintegration of Ukraine. The disintegration of Ukraine into certain republics is a scenario that all have to consider during long-term planning. The authority of the central power is constantly falling. Ideological disagreements between regions grow. Everyone understands that the debt burden on Ukraine is extremely high – it’s unlikely that Ukraine will be able to pay off these debts. If Ukraine collapses, it will not be necessary to repay debts.

“Local elections are extremely important both for politicians and for oligarchs. Their results will unpleasantly surprise Zelensky and “Servants of the People“. From the moment of local elections the campaign for Zelensky’s impeachment will begin – or there will be attempts to dismiss him de jure, or to de facto strip him of power, not allowing him to reach the end of his term. These elections are important for political parties. In the context of budgetary decentralisation, the funds that are now going to the region, despite the fall in GDP and the reduction of the budget of Ukraine, are more than the funds that were allocated under Yanukovych. It is control of money that will allow to fill party purses. It is an opportunity to form a team to conduct parliamentary and presidential elections.

It is no secret that parties hold elections while relying on local deputies – the quantity of resources depends on their number. This is important for oligarchs. Now all available funds are invested by large businesses in the purchase of land. Even if it directly is forbidden, there is a working scheme where you buy a company that leases land from shareholders. Then these companies will have an advantage when purchasing land during permitted sales. In order to comfortably buy up land in the future, it is necessary to control the region. The land is the last free asset in Ukraine that can be sold very profitably – many times more expensively than what it was bought for,” summarised Oleg Tsarev.

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