Oleg Tsarev: Why Tymoshenko Goads Poroshenko Into Beginning an Offensive in Donbass

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard

19:04:29
17/02/2017

politnavigator.net

The blockade of Donbass by “veterans of the anti-terrorist operation” left metallurgy and the heating system of Ukraine without coal. The budget has no no means for the purchase of fuel from third-party countries, and the trans-shipment capacities of Ukraine are simply not capable of accepting such an amount.

Yulia Tymoshenko goads Petro Poroshenko into starting an offensive at Donbass, hoping that the military defeat of the UAF will lead to a change of power in Kiev.

This was stated to “Politnavigator” by the former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Oleg Tsarev.

“To cut off Ukraine from Donbass, without even speaking about from Russia — is the same as sitting on a tree and sawing the branch on which you sit. It is impossible to deliver coal from abroad.

Firstly, it will be twice as expensive. Secondly, it will be necessary to pay for it by currency. About two billion dollars annually. Today the bulk of coal is paid in hryvnias, in holdings, including the ones of Akhmetov. Also it is physically impossible to be contracted, and to deliver such an amount to Ukraine now. It’s simply not possible, because time is needed for this. And also because no trans-shipping in Ukraine is capable of transferring such an amount of coal. All trans-shipping is able to transfer only a quarter of the required coal. That’s why it isn’t possible.

And, as it is physically not possible, it’s unlikely that those who participate in the blockade pursue the real goal – the blockade of Donbass,” said Tsarev.

“I understand that Yulia Tymoshenko is now interested in Petro Poroshenko taking some sharp steps. To stimulate him for an attack on Donbass. Because it is obvious that he will not succeed to win against Donbass, while his defeat will lead to his demise.

Of course, it is difficult for the Republics — because military forces, in manpower alone, of Ukraine, according to different estimates, are for every one fighter of Novorossiya there are five to eight UAF fighters. And it is clear that if there will be an attack, then these UAF fighters will be brought together in one place. And there can be 100 UAF fighters for one fighter of the militia. Or two hundred.

But it is obvious that, despite such figures, which allows some Ukrainian politicians to make a victorious forecast, nevertheless common sense says that if they didn’t succeed to win against Donbass earlier, then they also won’t be able to do it now.

And, in principle, the situation in Ukraine is such that if there is no political and financial help from abroad, if Poroshenko together with his political opponents are left in Ukraine, really there is nothing to do here, just to leave them with each other alone, they would kill each other – be destroyed in a very short period of time.

The fact that it didn’t occur earlier is only because Biden interfered, flew over, and manually resolved the conflict. Together with the ambassador of the United States. And now the situation is that they were left without curators. The Unites States are busy with their own issues. And European leaders are busy with the upcoming elections.”

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