Oleg Tsarev: Ukraine Without Poroshenko

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard



I have received information about a closed meeting of Poroshenko, which took place on 23rd November and where Avakov, Turchynov, and Lutsenko were present. The current situation in Ukraine was discussed there.

The situation was deemed to be catastrophic, and moreover, that there are no prospects for improvement at all, on the contrary, everything indicates that it will get worse. As a result an ultimatum was given to the President. Either he begins to restore order in the country himself, or he does not prevent others from doing it. Poroshenko responded in such a way – like, “restore order yourselves”. Such a statement is factually a self-disengagement from power. His statement confirmed what was already told a lot in the corridors — that Poroshenko is ready to leave by himself, citing health problems. In the event of the disengagement of Poroshenko,  a fierce struggle for power between the groups of Tymoshenko and Avakov will unfold.

In the mean time, Petro’s inheritors are doing everything in order to push Poroshenko to self-depart. And it is precisely for this on Thursday, 1st of December, Yulia Timoshenko on the air of TV channel NewsOne stated that the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is ready to leave the presidency.

By the way, they don’t postpone for “later” what they can do now. Avakov is already attacking Tymoshenko and Saakashvili, using the media of Kolomoisky.

Yulia Tymoshenko and the project “people’s President”

In December, Ukraine expects the arrival of the monitoring group of the Republican party under the leadership of McCain. On November 11th, in the central office of “Fatherland”, Yulia Tymoshenko gathered the heads of regional offices. It was made clear to all of them that although many await, quite rightly, the arrival of McCain as a “bride”, in fact the choice was already made in favor of Tymoshenko.

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Two other candidates for the seat of Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk and Nalyvaychenko, do not have the support within Ukraine.

Tymoshenko told her party members that the Republicans are dissatisfied with Poroshenko, and that’s why they have been cooperating with her for a long time. Following their recommendations, Tymoshenko adopted the critique of the government on social problems, high utility bills, unpaid bank deposits of the population. They are advised to engage in the development of party structures. And most important of their demands, please note — the refusal of mass actions, and a new Maidan in Kiev.

Now it becomes clear what happened to the failed autumn Maidan. Yes, employees of the SBU blocked the departure of buses with protesters from the regions in Kiev, destroyed depots, prepared for the delivery of Maidan in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital, confiscated tents, sleeping bags, and canned food sent to the front in “ATO”.

But at this time, without knowing about the recommendations of foreign consultants, it was difficult to explain the passivity of Tymoshenko.

At this meeting regional leaders were informed that, in accordance with the curators, two projects will be started.

The first — “Ukraine without Poroshenko”, by analogy with the project “Ukraine without Kuchma”, which at the time also started at the suggestion of the Americans. Tymoshenko was recommended to implement “Ukraine without Poroshenko” with her opposition comrades — Lyashko and his “Radical Party”, Saakashvili, “Vidrodzhennya”, “Ukrop” and others.

The second project, “Tymoshenko – people’s President”, is actually the start of her presidential campaign. It is recommended to mention Tymoshenko in this status as often as possible — in the media, at rallies, etc.

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Tymoshenko radiated confidence, as if she had to only go through certain technical procedures and to gain power, but in fact the situation is not as simple as many think.

A coup for Reichskanzler

Astoundingly, despite the fact that the main powers in Avakov’s group are now concentrated in his hands, he does not see himself in the post of President, putting Yatsenyuk ahead of himself everywhere. However, it is possible that as a result of perturbations someone like Biletsky can break through to power.

The group of Avakov, Yatsenyuk, Nalyvaichenko, Parubiy, Turchynov has special hope that, in the event of the voluntary resignation or removal of Poroshenko, power will be de facto in the hands of the police under the leadership of Avakov, and de jure in the hands of Turchynov and Parubiy.

The group rightly believes that, once in power, they will have the opportunity to change the rules for themselves, and it means that the questions of the developed structure of the party and ratings will go by the wayside. Why does a dictatorship need party structures? As for the Americans, history teaches that they will deal with those who have power.

Just one small thing is lacking. They just need to take power into their own hands. Then the Führer in the dimly gleaming round glasses will lead a great nation to new and greater aims. By the way, a passion for military attributes Yatsenyuk has in his blood. His political party was called “People’s Front”.

Now he creates a new political entity headed by Igor Guz called “Attack”. If anyone doubts that the fact that Yatsenyuk will turn into the Ukrainian Führer, then they are profoundly mistaken. The most despotic leaders are made from cowardly, not confident people. And in the mean time Avakov is considering the possibility of capturing the Verkhovna Rada with radicals during the next plenary meeting so that Deputies are under pressure to impeach Poroshenko.

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Time works against Avakov. He needs to take power, because otherwise  it is Yulia who will take it. If he loses power, it is likely that he’ll fall under a criminal prosecution. Because the next President of Ukraine will have very big temptations to conduct an independent investigation into the shooting of the “heavenly hundred”.

Yulia is the only one from the current Ukrainian establishment who had no involvement in those events. Even if the elections are won, it will not be possible to restore order in the country without putting nationalists back in their place. And there isn’t and never will be a better way to do this than to hit the main ideologeme of Maidan — the murder of the heavenly hundred.

Acting President

Despite the fact that Poroshenko is already written off by everyone, he still has a chance to take power into his own hands. The tragedy in Knyazhychi, when five policemen were shot in their police car, apparently, by other policemen who either were “protecting” the looting of rich mansions near Kiev, or they themselves carried out it out, can become the great occasion for this.

The Interior Ministry of Ukraine said that the criminals were detained, but despite public outcry, charges have still not been filed. Many rightly believe that now that there is a frantic search for those who will take the blame upon themselves. So, given this outcry, the tragedy in Knyazhychi is the last opportunity for Poroshenko to remove Avakov. There will not be another opportunity.

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