Oleg Tsarev: Ukrainian Nationalists Were Divided Into Two Camps

On March 11th the leader of the Batkivshchynaparty and candidate for the Ukrainian presidency Yuliya Tymoshenko demanded from the leader of the regime on Bankova Street Petro Poroshenko to withdraw his candidacy from the presidential election.

The President is a criminal, the President is laundering army money. This is already obvious today, and that’s why I demand from Poroshenko to withdraw his candidacy from the election, remove his immunity, and to answer before the law

In conjunction with this, Arsen Avakov’s pet Nazis from National Corpus (the political project of Andrey Biletsky) and National Druzhina (the street titushki of “National Corpus”) keep disrupting Poroshenko’s campaign rallies. Ukrainian politician Oleg Tsarev commented on what other revelations and events we can expect during the pre-election race in Ukraine.

“Nationalists are now divided into two camps. One is the ‘National Druzhina’ of Avakov – they a separate uniform, constantly get paid; the others weren’t taken by Avakov and thus were picked up by Poroshenko. As the last demonstration of forces that Poroshenko and Avakov staged showed, radicals from ‘National Druzhina’ are more numerous and organised.

I think that Poroshenko’s opponents prepared, as a minimum, one scandal per week. The electoral campaign will take place against the background of loud investigations, revelations, and accusations.

The main thing that Poroshenko is accused of is corruption. Finding examples and proof of the guilt of Poroshenko won’t be difficult for his competitors, because all of his activity, from the beginning to the end, is continuous corruption.

Poroshenko can also play the compromising evidence game against Zelensky and Tymoshenko, and in this sense Zelensky is more vulnerable. Tymoshenko was consistently criticised for a long time that the voter has already gotten used to it, and new compromising evidence will hardly work. If negative information about Zelensky is suddenly published, it can lower his approval rating a bit. What negative information? For example, if it is a conversation between Kolomoisky and Zelensky, and Kolomoisky in a manner habitual to him reprimands Zelensky like he’s a subordinate. Although I don’t think that it will strongly lower Zelensky’s approval rating.

However, now no serious analyst will be able to make an accurate forecast for who will win or at least will enter the second round. Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Zelensky – they all have their chances and opportunities. I will say more: even Gritsenko has certain chances, but he already missed his opportunities. If he was supported not only by Sadovoy, but also by Vakarchuk, and if it happened two months ago, then he would’ve stood a chance.

Ahead there is still enough time for the electoral campaign, which will bring many surprises.

At the moment Zelensky has the highest approval rating. But Poroshenko still has administrative resources and the possibility to falsify elections, and it is Tymoshenko who has the most developed party structure, and she is also capable of providing the necessary results for the electoral process.

Tymoshenko is also supported by oligarchs. They finance her and give her broadcasting time. These are very serious resources.

It is even possible to note a scenario whereby Tymoshenko and Zelensky will reach an agreement and will share out among themselves the roles of president and prime minister. At the moment this option doesn’t suit any of the parties, but it is quite possible that they will be obliged to take such a step. After all, this way the chances of victory for such a joint team will sharply grow – they will receive the opportunity to win even in the first round.

If Tymoshenko gathers a whole pool of presidential candidates around herself – for example, Nalivaychenko, Gritsenko, and so on – and will present her team as such, then her approval rating will sharply rise, after all, a candidate with such a team invokes more trust in voters. That’s why there are many options concerning the outcome of elections – it is only left to observe the process”.

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