Oleg Tsarev: Unexpected Combinations

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard



As is known, Petro Poroshenko recently reacted to both Nadiya Savchenko and her statements with big irritation. But in politics only interests are constant. Petro’s interest is constant only to money, while in Ukraine money without power doesn’t exist. His administration considered that the rating of the authorities is falling and will fall further. To keep power, it is impossible to wait for the next elections. It is necessary to hold early elections while there are still chances to win.

The most strong contender for Poroshenko is Tymoshenko. In the event of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko progressing to the second round, Poroshenko has no chance. To win, Poroshenko was offered a scenario in which, on the one hand, Rabinovich’s rating will be inflated so that he progress to the second round. On the other hand, help will be given to Savchenko. It was calculated that Nadiya takes away votes not from Poroshenko, but from Tymoshenko. Having given a chance to Savchenko to carry out a successful electoral campaign, the authorities can achieve Tymoshenko not getting into the second round.

One of the ways of giving weight to Rabinovich is his promotion as the candidate in the presidential elections from the Opposition Bloc.

It is known that V. Kovalchuk (the First Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration, the head of the electoral campaign of Petro Poroshenko on the post of President of Ukraine in 2014 and Bloc of Petro Poroshenko at early parliamentary elections of 2014) was related to the start of the “For Life” project. But recently the influential and close to Poroshenko People’s Deputies Kononenko and Granovsky want to intercept control over the project “For Life”. In the event of Rabinovich nevertheless heading the Opposition Bloc at presidential elections, then Granovsky and Kononenko want to make the head and the person from the “For Life” party my former colleague Valery Konovalyuk. Kovalchuk strongly opposes such a scenario. But this story has no relation to presidential elections. Control over blocs and parties is extremely important, but already for parliamentary elections.

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The offered scenario is not without issues. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Vadim Rabinovich is the first Deputy of Igor Kolomoisky in the European Jewish Union (EJU), and both of them are co-chairmen of the European Jewish Parliament (EJP). Taking into account, to put it mildly, the not simple relationship between Kolomoisky and Poroshenko and the various contacts of Rabinovich, he is capable of throwing surprises at Poroshenko at the final stage during the electoral campaign. Poroshenko is protected only by the fact that against the background of the all-over Russophobic campaign in the media, the chances of Rabinovich’s victory in conditions when Donbass and Crimea don’t participate in the Ukrainian electoral campaign any more are insignificantly small.

The most amusing thing is that for Poroshenko it is deadly if in the second round of presidential elections there is both Tymoshenko and Savchenko. Therefore, on the one hand, it is planned to help Savchenko to gather a rating, and on the other hand, to watch it closely so that it doesn’t become too high.

In general, the forthcoming campaign is capable of offering many surprises to those who prepare cunning plans. The persons involved will not necessarily behave as political strategists from the Presidential Administration plan. And Igor Kolomoisky will not quietly watch how Petro Poroshenko is elected for a second term. When Poroshenko’s opponents – Kolomoisky, Tymoshenko, and others planned the action “blockade of Donbass”, they didn’t expect to receive such productivity themselves. The results of the action exceeded the expectations of its organizers manyfold. Only a non-standard decision helped Poroshenko to get out of a difficult situation – when he eventually headed what he opposed in the beginning. Kolomoisky’s team at any moment can begin much more large-scale actions: The blocking of all export and import operations with Russia; the seizure of enterprises and TV channels of oligarchs, connected, according to radicals, with Russia – both the enterprises of Russian businessmen and the enterprises of Firtash and Akhmetov can fall under the blow. The danger to Poroshenko of new actions from Kolomoisky lies in the fact that upon their realization such an orgy of lawlessness can begin in the country that it completely will annulate the plans of political strategists. It is known that during revolutions ratings don’t matter.

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The party of war – Avakov, Yatsenyuk, Turchynov, and Parubiy – will play its game. They have all the necessary resources and opportunities to at any moment take the initiative.

If to sum up the result: in the event of the adoption of the plan offered for Poroshenko, soon we will see Savchenko and Rabinovich much more often on the screens of Ukrainian TV. The media will start speaking about the need to dissolve parliament.

We can say one thing with certainty: changes await Ukraine. Time will tell if they are for the best or the worst.

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