Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
- The Normandy Format without the government in Kiev and the Big two “Russia-USA” decides the fate of Ukraine.
- The leadership of Germany doesn’t take the phone calls of Kiev.
- Rex Tillerson promises not to give up Ukraine, but only “at the moment”.
- In the ruling circles of the junta an intraspecific fight for the highest positions that will be vacant began.
- The West plans the sale of Ukrainian land for next to nothing, and in Lvov the documents for the restitution and transfer of property to Poland are being prepared.
- Lyashko wants to be President. Poroshenko wants to come to an agreement with Yatsenyuk and Turchynov, and Tymoshenko simply wants always.
- The blowing up of high-ranking officers of the SBU is the “hand of God”.
The former Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada who supported the uprising in Novorossiya Oleg Tsarev described to Politnavigator’s Valentin Filippov how Ukraine is being skilfully led to elimination, with hopes for the best and on Russia.
Valentin Filippov from Politnavigator: Hello.
Oleg Tsarev: “Hello, Valentin.”
Politnavigator: Tell us please, is it already possible to consider the Normandy Format not as a four, but a three of special function?
Oleg Tsarev: “We remember that on the 5th of July there was a statement from Merkel that ‘there shouldn’t be any meetings without the participation of Ukraine, we won’t leave Ukraine by itself’. And since July 5th the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine bombarded Germany, it’s chancellory, in order to coordinate when Petro Poroshenko has to arrive. But at first he was told: wait, wait. And then in general they ceased to answer his phone calls. That’s why, and the plane was ready, and everybody was already ready, they were ready to leave. And, unfortunately for Ukraine, they were obliged to watch the event remotely on TV.”
Politnavigator: It’s clear. In other words, they held negotiations with an answering machine.
Oleg Tsarev: “This is a blow to Petro Poroshenko. And Tillerson’s visit to Ukraine, who arrived in order to calm Petro Poroshenko, didn’t really help. But when he was calming him, he said such a phrase, which now is quoted by all Ukrainian media: that the United States AT THE MOMENT isn’t going to hand over Ukraine. These words ‘at the moment’ are now being chewed by all journalists. And it didn’t add optimism to the Ukrainian power.”
Politnavigator: I have the impression that the US instead of Ukraine wants to already openly present their interests, perhaps, in the Normandy Format.
But, nevertheless, they don’t want to let Ukraine go, the Americans still have certain plans for it, and they push forward demands that don’t correspond to the Minsk Agreements.
Oleg Tsarev: “Here some optimists consider that ‘that’s all, hurrah, everything is wonderful’, that now there will be changes in the position on Ukraine, it will be possible to return to normal life. I don’t think that it will happen. I very much would like to be an optimist, but, I think that two processes will take place.
The first – it is for sure that Ukraine will be listened to less and less and taken into account less and less. The weaker Petro Poroshenko is and the more complicated the situation in Ukraine is, the more the Ukrainian power will be dependent on the West, then the less it will be considered. But at this time the West will use Ukraine to put pressure on Russia.
On the other hand this is a seized country, all of them aimed at assets. Ukraine next year has rather big payments for debts. $71-$72 billion or $75 billion – if to calculate this in hryvnia — this is the total amount of internal and external debts. And also approximately the same sum is corporate debts.”
Politnavigator: I.e. $150 billion all together, yes?
Oleg Tsarev: “In total it works out at about $150 billion. It is necessary to understand that foreign companies then very skilfully transform these debts into debts owed to the IMF. And the IMF then lends and is paid back, it doesn’t allow its commercial structures to collapse, which credited the country-creditor.
And, in general, on the one hand it becomes the rather large sum of $150 billion, and on the other hand — it is simply kopeks in comparison with the cost of the land, nuclear power plants, and ports. It is exactly what Petro Poroshenko now persistently wants to sell off.
Imagine – it was Germany, in World War I and World War II, that had to occupy Ukraine. War costs trillions of dollars. And here, it turns out that it is possible to buy a country for kopeks. All IMF members always calculated for themselves just the mortgage cost of the Ukrainian land — it is $200 billion. It is simply a ridiculous price.”
Politnavigator: I.e. they with this sum, in principle, can again give money to the current Kiev regime. Approximately, what sum?
Oleg Tsarev: “They will do this should the market of the land start to work.”
Politnavigator: Well, they can also not give?
Oleg Tsarev: “Well, why not give? The cost of the land turns out in Ukraine to now be from $200 to $400 per hectare. The cost of land in the European Union is about €30,000 per hectare.
€30,000 and $200 per hectare! While in Germany it is €50,000. Imagine, in fact, the country can be bought for kopeks! And this is not taking into account the fact that the start of privatization is now given, and they want to sell off all that remains of that economic mightiness of the Soviet Union that our Ukrainian authorities inherited.”
Politnavigator: It seems to me that already little remains there.
Oleg Tsarev: “And I am sure that our western Ukrainian partners will fight very rigidly to receive what they consider is rightfully theirs. After all, it is so profitable. At first they staged a coup, they installed the authorities controlled by them, and then they will buy everything that they want to buy.
After all, you know, this IMF money will be enough to preserve calm in Ukraine for another five years. Yes, they will pay the police — they will pay a good salary, they will give some minimum money so that the situation doesn’t immediately explode.
Ukrainians will be cooked on the sly, they will exponentially get used to every time the water becomes hotter and hotter.”
Politnavigator: But anyway — some activity must remain on this territory. I.e. if some resources are being bought, some seized, then there is a need to provide activity for these resources: of plants – if any plants will remain, of ports – ports must load something. In the end, the land also counts as something only if you do something with it.
Oleg Tsarev: “Of course they will do. Just that such a quantity of people are not needed in Ukraine [for the West – ed]. We see that now representatives of the middle class who most actively supported Maidan now more actively than others go abroad.”
Politnavigator: Well, they achieved a visa-free regime.
Oleg Tsarev: “In fact, Maidan was needed in order to sell the country, to receive a visa-free regime, and to leave this country. Here is such a sad situation. Also this is a very bad, very negative scenario, and I after all hope that we Russians, Slavs always somehow were helped by God. And, when the West was building meticulously thought over strategical plans, we managed to somehow get through it, we wriggled out, and in the end we won over all. I hope that this time too it will be like that. But it’s true, I don’t know in which way.
Of course, for Petro Poroshenko it is extremely important to keep stability. And stability is primarily a coalition. That’s why Petro Poroshenko now persistently suggests to ‘People’s Front’ to unite. But now all, practically all, are aiming at re-elections. Tymoshenko more than most, who is helped by Kolomoisky, Sadovoy, and so on. But only ‘People’s Front’ and Poroshenko are against re-elections.
Recently there were big discussions in ‘People’s Front’, where there was Burbak, Turchynov, there were heads of the regional organizations of ‘People’s Front’, and People’s Deputies. They were debating, it was a closed meeting, but, nevertheless, they haven’t yet made the decision to unite with the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko.
Why? Because the situation with Petro Poroshenko is very complicated, and it is Yulia Tymoshenko who gains popularity and the protest movement in the country. If privatization and to open the market of the land doesn’t happen, then it means giving money to Ukraine is actually giving it out from your [IMF’s – ed] own pocket.
So the IMF doesn’t want to simply take out money and give it out — there is an understanding that this money will never return.
Now in the International Monetary Fund the situation is not at all simple. You know that there must be more voices of China and other countries. And now actually the United States pushes forward these decisions and reaches not only into their own pocket, but into the pocket of other members of the International fund.
I.e. the IMF gives (credits) irrevocable money, irrevocable in the event, I repeat, the land won’t be sold and the next privatization isn’t carried out. And this is the rather risky investment of money.”
Politnavigator: Well, wait. You want to say that, in principle, if a decision on the market of the land will be made, that the land is to be sold, then the credits will be given precisely under the sale of land. In which way will this money come back to the IMF? Well, they will declare the market of the land. Well, they will sell, as always, through some companies, through someone.
And secondly: Is there no sense to accelerate this market of the land by carrying out re-elections? I.e., what do external players in this situation think? Do they really need a change of power in Ukraine? Do they really need elections or not? Are they needed by Washington, especially if to consider that Poroshenko messed up while Trump was being elected.
Oleg Tsarev: “Look at the statements of the United States. Tillerson said that there is a need to fulfil the demands of the IMF, and there is a need to decide on the market of the land. They understand that without this it will be very difficult for them to push forward the further financing of Ukraine. But, believe me, this $200 billion is such a miserable sum in comparison with the cost of the country, they will simply give this money to Ukraine just so that private companies can buy land, and that’s all.
They will buy up the land, and the country will… Well, how much? $200 billion was given to Poland just like that when they were joining [the EU – ed].”
Politnavigator: Well, but they killed the shipbuilding and mining industry in Poland. They moved away competitors quite well. So, there also it had its price. And now Poland plans to plunder Ukraine.
By the way, I wanted to ask concerning Poland. It doesn’t seem to you that Poland can catch a “star” — how Trump praised them! He gave them missiles, however, it’s true it was with their own money. He called them the heart of Europe.
Probably, Poland can start applying for some leadership in Europe? Especially as they will trade American gas. Germany wants to trade Russian gas. Somehow their interests don’t coincide with Germany’s, for example.
Oleg Tsarev: “You know, the interests of all of them coincide. I consider everything from the point of view of Ukraine being a prism. England and Germany want to receive land and metallurgy. If they receive metallurgy, it means they become the third in the world for the production of metal.
The Poles have claims for [owning – ed] Lvov.
Look at the situation of Poroshenko and his candidates. Yulia Tymoshenko was like a silent horror for Yanukovych in nightmares. Just like she is in the nightmares of Poroshenko.”
Politnavigator: Ah, there is no judge Rodion Kireev for him here!
Oleg Tsarev: “Yes, there is no Kireev. That’s why Petro Poroshenko in the event of early elections prepares, in general, several scenarios.
Well, firstly, it is necessary for him to bring his own candidates for the second round who can’t win against him. They are few and far between. Boyko, Rabinovich, who very much applies, and Lyashko, who wants very much to be Poroshenko’s rival.
The biggest threat is posed in fact by all who can pass into the second round, all others can win against him, beginning with Nalyvaichenko and finishing with Vakarchuk.”
Politnavigator: And what do you think, does Boyko have a chance?
Oleg Tsarev: “Now there is such russophobia that, in general, only a pro-Russian candidate, such conditionally pro-Russian, with such rhetoric … I won’t now evaluate the pro-Russianness of these candidates, but in the opinion of the electorate they look pro-Russian.
It’s them who can lose to today’s Poroshenko. All others can win.
For this reason a criminal case on the financing of Tymoshenko’s party was opened. I don’t know if everyone noticed this or not. This case is on the financing of the party, I will now try to decipher it. In order to pay for any official events and to carry out official expenditure, the party collects membership fees.
The Prosecutor General’s Office checked the list of pensioners who paid fees… I won’t explain the details. For example, they paid 10 hryvnia, and there is was written 1000 hryvnia. And, of course, this is a criminal case, and it can hit Tymoshenko.
The situation is amusing because this internal picture was revealed by co-members of Yulia Tymoshenko’s party. I think she should research who there were threats against during the initiation of the criminal cases — those who paid off with such inside information in front of the Prosecutor General’s Office.
Besides this, there is a scenario for Tymoshenko to recognize as unconstitutional the vote about the waiving of her criminal record. You remember when the Verkhovna Rada of Maidan released her from prison? Of course, this happened with a gross violation of the Constitution, of the laws of Ukraine, and, in such a way, not to allow her to take part in elections.”
Politnavigator: You speak about intrigues against Tymoshenko. But she is not alone. We have such characters as Arsen Avakov who, on the one hand, irritates everyone, and on the other hand, his influence, including via the use of force, is rather serious. And what about him?
Oleg Tsarev: “Yes, of course, Petro Poroshenko is very concerned that levers of power are in the hands of Avakov. And if Poroshenko will be forcibly dismissed, then later the world will negotiate an agreement with Avakov.
It means that nobody will have any sentimentality. And so what – Poroshenko was offended. That’s why Petro Poroshenko now prepared a criminal case against Avakov.”
Politnavigator: Even this?!
Oleg Tsarev: “Yes, the materials are already ready. But, they also accurately try to speak with Yatsenyuk, that should Avakov be moved away, the position can be given to the Prime Minister of ‘People’s Front’, the head of the National Bank… After all, the National Bank is now a central body.
Now if someone goes bankrupt — then all this is sold by the liquidating commissions, which are appointed by the National Bank, and the property is on sale for kopeks. Very big money is earned on the back of corruption. It now one of the most profitable places in the State.
That’s why in this case Petro Poroshenko wants to solve two problems. On the one hand, to attach ‘People’s Front’ to himself in order for it to merge into one political force, and so that the threat of a split in the coalition is neutralised. Well, and on the other hand, to move away the person who can easily draw at any moment radicals towards themselves and ask to leave and vacate office.”
Politnavigator: Clearly. And is he afraid of Saakashvili? Or is he just a clown?
Oleg Tsarev: “No, he isn’t afraid of Saakashvili. No, no. According to Sadovoy he has the same scenario: to open a criminal case regarding the garbage, to dismiss him as the mayor. And for him Sadovoy is also not a secret. In such a way, to manage to not allow the two strongest competitors of Petro Poroshenko.
Yulia Tymoshenko in return builds relations practically with everyone, and now practically everyone supports her. If to count the number of parties, oligarchs, so in general the entire pool is behind her.
And Sadovoy — he hid himself behind the Poles. So in Lvov there is discontent because there are appointments of staff officials of Polish origin. He built very close relations with Poland, counting on Poland covering him and not allowing reprisals against him. And Poland really counts — it’s not important how to pull away the city of Lvov — on calling it Lemberg.
After all, remember – when German troops came into Lvov, there was practically no rooted Ukrainian population. Poles and Jews lived there. Jews were massacred, and Poles in general left, leaving their property there. The Ukrainian population was coming to work and was leaving, i.e. without continuous residence in Lvov, none of them had property. The property was taken away from Poles. And now Poles very actively work with Sadovoy, work with the archives.
They say that it is at the level of slowly preparing documents. The agreement on association that Ukraine signed [with the EU – ed], allows to receive all this back. And I think that Poland will rigidly insist on those processes that took place in the Baltic countries taking place in Western Ukraine. It is said that there is even such a service when property supposedly existed, all documents are lost, but now through the archive they accurately make binders, draw up these documents so that it looks like they were already in the archive should there be a need to appeal to the court.”
Politnavigator: I think that now the production of paper of 1935 must be in demand, because there is a need to make these documents with authentic paper. Well, in general, ours [Ukrainians – ed] will invent.
You know, I remembered a situation. Once I spoke with a Pole, some Deputy a few years ago — precisely on this same topic. And he said that Poland very much loves Ukraine, and Poland has such a mood that probably it will refuse restitution in order not to cause damage to the already poor Ukraine.
But, I noticed that a certain demonization of Ukraine now occurs in Polish society. Hostility between Ukraine and Poland increases, I see.
Oleg Tsarev: “Valentin, look. Actually it is the middle class that supported Maidan the most. Now it actively leaves Ukraine. And concerning radicals: well, who needs radicals in Ukraine when restitution will take away property? Hence the statement of Poland that there shouldn’t be any radicals in Ukraine, and that Ukraine can’t come into Europe with Bandera.
The third factor that supported Maidan is the oligarchs. They very much hoped that their under-evaluated assets upon accession to the European Union will grow in price.
But war began, and their assets ceased to be worth anything in general. And they actually are all bankrupt, except Kolomoisky.”
Politnavigator: You spoke about the credits that should be given back. And you said that some plans are eternally being made against us, and that we, with our Slavic “avos”, always find a way out.
I would slightly argue. I remembered a phrase, it is attributed to Stalin, who said: “And all credits are paid for with the blood of our soldiers”.
Our “Avos” costs us our big blood.
In all this all politics — what is the fate of the People’s Republics, the Russian spring, Novorossiya, about which Poroshenko says that “it was buried by the people of Ukraine themselves”?
Will there be an aggravation? And what can be said about the latest explosions in the Republics? Practically SBU employees perished in Kiev and Donbass.
Oleg Tsarev: “Let me answer you as such, accurately. It is the hand of God.”
Politnavigator: Concerning SBU employees?
Oleg Tsarev: “Yes, concerning SBU employees. And I know that now in Kiev there is panic, that Generals began to walk with protection, with big protection. And Generals of the SBU don’t like this at all.
And I want to say that in this case the SBU doesn’t like at all what is going on now. And, once again, I write this off as the hand of providence, after all, all these SBU employees were connected to acts of terrorism.
In this case it is another department that now threatens the Republics, Crimea, and Russia more, it is called the Special operations command at the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. It is only called ‘at the Ministry of Defence’ because of the fact they are not subordinated to the Ministry of Defence, and only post factum they inform the Minister of Defence about their operations.
This department is completely formed by new people, and people who never worked in the special services are employed. People were employed from the street, nobody knows who these people are. For six months they were trained in the United States. They work in groups of 3 – 10 people. They are trained in such groups.
Remember how Abwehr trained spies during the Great Patriotic War. Nearly nothing has changed. And they plan to work with these groups in Crimea, in Donbass, and, God forbid, also in Ukraine.
Here you asked a question – what scenarios can there be in Donbass. Coming back to the fact that the West and the United States don’t intend to give in despite the fact that Petro Poroshenko loses in the ratings and that Ukraine is taken into account less and less. The most negative scenario is when they will begin a big war before the presidential elections in Russia.
It seems to me that Russia underestimates the threat proceeding from Ukraine a little. The American intelligence services work independently of the State Department. The CIA is such an organization that has its own budget — the white budget, the black budget is from shadow operations.
There are interests there. These interests don’t always coincide with the interests of the United States. They work rather actively and rather productively.
I only want to thank the employees of the Ministry of State Security of Donetsk and Lugansk. We see that after the last acts of terrorism they, as a rule, are always investigating, the guilty persons are found and named.
But the situation cardinally changed in comparison with what it was in the beginning. Well, and also to pay tribute to the bodies of the FSB in Crimea, because the Ukrainian special services – ‘Ukrainian’ because they are only called Ukrainian – would very much like to destabilize the situation in Crimea, and it is only thanks to the efforts of the Russian specials services that all of this is stopped.”
Politnavigator: Well, many thanks. From you generally we learn information that we can’t find anywhere else. And of course it would be desirable that things don’t reach the level where big acts of terrorism can happen on our territory.
Oleg Tsarev: “You know, sometimes a horrible end is better than horror without an end. I very much wouldn’t want Ukraine to be sold off. I am sure that those dishonest, treacherous schemes that were set in motion with Ukraine, when they organized a coup, and then installed comprador leaders, who now want to sell off and do sell off Ukraine, accumulate a lot of debts … It seems to me that it is necessary to send them there, from where they were appointed. All debts that were taken by Ukraine must be recognized as illegal, because they were signed by people who in reality didn’t have any powers according to the Constitution.
And to punish the West… You know, the West is concerned most of all by the loss of money. So, I would like them to never receive back everything that they allocated to Ukraine, that they don’t receive a single kopeck back. And I would like Ukrainian land and plants to be left for Ukrainians, that we rebuild our State, in which Ukrainians, Russians, and other people who are citizens of Ukraine and live in Ukraine feel like owners.”
Politnavigator: Well, how to provide all of this, I don’t know. Only Russia has such force to make this happen, but even probably it will be obliged to call China for help.
Oleg Tsarev: “I think that we will cope without China.”
Politnavigator: Well, without China. So. Many thanks.
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