Placing a Stake on Resignation: What Saakashvili’s Letters to Poroshenko Prepare Ukraine For

Translated by Ollie Richardson



The letter sent to the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko by Mikheil Saakashvili with an appeal to resign and a description of the deepening political crisis are designed for serious results. This was stated by the political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko to FBA “Economy Today”.

“Understanding why Mikheil Saakashvili started to write to Poroshenko is rather simple: any coup must be legalised – the people must be given a reason to be indignant even if they are artificially indignant. The murders on Maidan were the pretext for the violent removal of Viktor Yanukovych, while the former president wasn’t aware at all who killed the ‘Heavenly Hundred‘. Saakashvili’s letters have a similar purpose.

If you recently came to prove the illegality of the deprivation of nationality, but you start talking about impeachment, then there is a need for arguments. The decision on impeachment will be made by the parliament on the basis of a crime committed by the President, and ‘iron’ evidence of the involvement of the head of State is necessary. Saakashvili, in fact, delivers an ultimatum: leave in an amicable way or it will be bad. This is already the argument for a future coup: that, allegedly, Poroshenko was asked to leave voluntary, but he forced them to do completely contrary actions,” notes the expert.

The former governor of Odessa region Mikheil Saakashvili published an open letter on social networks, where he urged Poroshenko to leave his post voluntarily. “Your voluntary retirement is almost the last chance to overcome the political crisis, which otherwise will only deepen. The President, having voluntarily retired and bowed his head before the will of the people, can count on a mitigation of punishment and a pardon. Admit to yourself and the people that you and your colleagues aren’t able and don’t want to change Ukraine for the better,” says the message.

“This is already Saakashvili’s second attempt to appeal to Poroshenko in an epistolary genre – he didn’t disclose the contents of the first letter, but the representatives of Kiev did. And it was interpreted as a ‘letter of repentance’, although there were many interpretations. For me personally Saakashvili’s interpretation seems more probable: Poroshenko’s didn’t listen to private arguments, so now the messages will be public.

The oppositionist demonstrates that he is trying to convince the President: he must resign in an amicable way, because if it’s in a ‘bad’ way Ukraine may finally collapse before Poroshenko finally collapses. Nevertheless, both Saakashvili and his partner-clients need a Ukraine without Poroshenko, but not without Poroshenko and without Ukraine,” stressed the political scientist.

“At the level of a statistical error”

At the end of last week Saakashvili said that he sent Petro Poroshenko a personal letter, and the other day the press secretary of the Ukrainian President made its contents public. It contains appeals to “agree about the future of Ukraine and about preventing the destabilisation of the situation in the country” and promises “not to resort to further destabilisation”. Poroshenko’s administration stated that Saakashvili broken his word, having occupied with his supporters the October Palace in Kiev on December 17th.

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The retired Georgian politician announced that he didn’t intend to occupy rooms. Meanwhile, in clashes between protesters and the National Guard 60 police officers were injured. The protesters tried to storm the palace with the demand to impeach Poroshenko. Ukrainian officials said that during these events in October there were festive children’s morning performances – Kiev used this fact to discredit the speech of Saakashvili. It later became clear that there weren’t any children in the building – an orchestra performance was planned for this day.

“Saakashvili is just the runaway President of Georgia who tells all Ukrainians well-known things, but at the same time has no personal political weight. Even now, when he has shaken the situation in the country up for three months, his personal rating is close to a statistical error – it’s not even publicised. Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and many other politicians have disputable ratings, but Saakashvili simply doesn’t have one.

The strength of this oppositionist is the large political-oligarchical group that stands behind him. This is Kolomoisky, Tymoshenko, Nalyvaichenko, and other persons involved, who are ready to invest money and political resources in the fight against Poroshenko. There is a huge layer of ‘players’ in the country who detachedly watch events and just join the winning side. What does Poroshenko have? Zero popularity among the population and a group of 30 people whose personal wealth depends on the President. He won’t find other support.

The opinion that the upcoming holidays will curb the stormy moods should be shared with care. It is necessary to still live up to the Christmas holidays – practice shows that trouble can happen when people ‘exhaled’ and were assured: for 2-3 weeks there will be tranquility. But dramatic events are quite possible in Ukraine in the New Year,” concludes Rostislav Ishchenko.

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