Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
The former President of Georgia and the former governor of the Odessa region Mikheil Saakashvili announced a protest action under the name “March for Impeachment”, the event is scheduled for December 3rd. What will the consequences be, and is it worth expecting a response from the authorities? These and other questions were answered by the President of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting by Rostislav Ishchenko.
On December 3rd Saakashvili will announce the start of the program that he called “the people’s impeachment”. He didn’t just say that on December 3rd he will begin to realise this program, but stated that he is going to remove Poroshenko by the end of December. In this situation it’s not that Saakashvili tries to conclude a change of power that’s interesting. It was expected. No change of power starts in order to just make noise and disperse. What’s interesting is the fact that the dates sounded by Saakashvili lead the situation in Ukraine up to the peak of the standoff exactly up to the time of the presidential elections in Russia.
After Poroshenko in Ukraine, anyway (whatever happens, a leader will appear there who will be able to keep the country in one piece, or many parties and many leaders will appear who will take away a piece of the country for themselves), very unpleasant events are expected: radicals have to come to power – frank Nazis. Nobody else can do it.
And the fact that the Ukrainian politicians understand this is visible in how their speeches became radicalised. Consequently, if to proceed from the fact that Saakashvili implements what he conceived, and will start the process on December 3rd, and by the end of December will finish it, we receive the following pivotal dates: by Catholic Christmas (on December 25th) Poroshenko is put against the wall, and he leaves. Further, the period of New Year’s holiday starts — practically until the old New year [January 14th – ed]. During these 20 days everything stabilises. Politicians can begin to show activity in the further race for power during the period between January 10th and 15th. 45-60 days are quite enough for them — in order to completely fly off the rails. The West won’t support them. They don’t have their own forces or legitimacy, nor do they have trust towards each other. The only available method of fight — a shoot-out, and radicals wander around, who demand to begin the massacre of Russians. Anyway, the situation must be destabilised. The peak of destabilisation will be by the end of February – the beginning of March.
It’s not a coincidence that Volker during negotiations said that it is better for Russia to move towards the American expectations. He, most likely, meant this trump card, which Washington holds close to its chest. But it is obvious that the situation in Ukraine has gotten out of hand, the Americans can try to slow down or accelerate the development of events, but their opportunities are limited. So it is senseless to try to reach an agreement on Ukraine with Washington.
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