Poroshenko’s Plan B for Staying in Power: Blackmail and Pressure

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard


Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Management of Policy

Azov Sea and martial law in Ukraine…

Poroshenko and People’s Front simply change their election strategy and switch to plan “B” for clinging onto power – “Blackmail and Pressure”. This is a fight not for votes, but against political opponents, or for immunity and a place in the political system in the next political cycle. Army, Language, Faith hasn’t given the desirable result (as sociology shows) and power slips out of the hands. After all, when Crimea was taken along with its 2 million citizens, when Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were burning – behind the line of demarcation another 3 million more citizens were left, 10 thousand perished – according to them there was NO NEED for martial law – nobody was going to introduce it. When there was a need to hold elections, power was in their hands. But when 2 boats and the tug were seized, there apparently is a NEED to introduce martial law, because they don’t need to hold elections anymore, since the result will be deplorable!

This is check [chess term – ed] for Tymoshenko and other opponents of the current government. If you don’t support martial law, then you are an agent of the Kremlin. If you do support martial law, then you gift power to P. Poroshenko. Although it won’t be simple in the parliament. But, it is their own fault – now the dragon of militarism that they helped to raise lives according to its own rules.

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The key question is will the opposition be ready to hold mass protests in such a case? Why it’s 60 days of martial law: during this time it is possible to stop the activity of political opponents and to crush independent media (Channel 112 andNewsOne are already doomed?). Postponing elections to May 31st, 2019 gives not only an additional 2 months (during which a lot of things can change), it also allows to hold voting after the heating season, which allows to ease the pressure being exerted by the key discrediting factor. The powers of the President will be extended for 2 months (by fact), allowing to achieve the 5 years enshrined in the Constitution. This is a very bad sign for business. It is a demonstration of the fact that the authorities will fight for power up to the end, without reckoning with the rules and the consequences. It is worth expecting a deepening of the economic crisis. Even if martial law won’t be introduced, the President can switch attention from tariffs, the budget (1 billion was earmarked for the Fund of the President), corruption, and oppressive sociology to WAR!

In any case, it is important that Ukrainian sailors and ships come back home. What efforts are being made concerning this?

When will the border with the Russian Federation be closed and the transit of energy carriers for 15-20 billion dollars annually (the direct income of the Russian Federation) be stopped? Will the IMF hand over money?

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