Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
There is no need for a violinist… an overland corridor to Crimea and Ukrainian Gas Transit System too.
Ukraine can not bargain any more. Time has passed.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin at a press conference on December 23rd, 2016, reminded about one fact that says a lot of things about the strategy of Russia for the territories adjacent to the Russian Crimea: “In the next two-three days it will be announced that the supply of Russian gas to Crimea has begun”. The president also announced the construction of two big power plants in Crimea.
This short phrase has buried the dreams of all rural elite who hoped that Russian tanks will pass from Kharkov and Zaporizhia to Kherson and the border of Crimea. And that then Russia will undertake obligations for the restoration and economic growth of the “liberated” territories.
Exactly in the same way the dreams of Petro Poroshenko and his like-minded folk who hoped to stage a number of blockade of Crimea and by this provoke Russia into aggression were buried also. By this Poroshenko and his team would have carried out the task set by the West — and would obtain guarantees of preservation of their lives and assets.
On December 27th the President Vladimir Putin initiated the start of the supply of gas to Crimea from the territory of continental Russia. The start of the pipeline Krasnodar Krai-Crimea will allow to provide an uninterrupted supply of gas to all categories of consumers.
According to Vladimir Putin, the arrival of Russian main gas on the peninsula will allow “to create an absolutely new situation from the point of view of development of all economic complex, a recreational complex, and development of the social sphere in Crimea and Sevastopol”.
“In the near future, in 2017-2018, two power plants with 470 megawatt output each will be built on the basis of the gas coming to Crimea, which will cover and then some all the current requirements,” added the Russian President.
What does it mean?
It means that energy independence of Crimea from Ukraine is created. And that no Ukrainian Tatars of Dzhemilev and Chubarov, no Ukrainian elite can blackmail Russia with the wellbeing of Crimea any more.
They have even helped Russia. They created serious problems, which Russia also solved in a short space of time with gloss, having strengthened additional prestige in the international arena.
And ahead there is also the start of the Kerch Bridge, which will finally resolve all logistic issues. And the “overland way” to Crimea, which the Ukrainian “pro-Russian” elite were negotiating over for two and a half years, will remain only in their unrealizable dreams.
Russian Crimea doesn’t need Ukraine any more. Ukraine is already unneeded by Russia. Unless a question with the GTS still remains, which will be solved in 2019.
In fact, this is a stamp on the Ukrainian elite. Directly on the forehead: “Useless”.
“Regional” elite tried to bargain with Russia on February 22nd, 2014, during the Kharkov congress. And not just to negotiate, but rolled out to Russia the conditions on what and how they have to obtain from Russia in order for the Southeast to remain pro-Russian. With their psychology of small shopkeepers and hucksters they haven’t understood that it is impossible to interact like that with a great power — that they simply won’t be understood.
As a result, the Kremlin looked at them pensively — and advised them to negotiate with those who arrived, and at the same time to solve with their own efforts the internal problems of the sovereign state.
It is what the Kharkov elite did. They were “pro-Russian”, but started quietly and without special problems to be in session at the Verkhovna Rada. Mikhail Dobkin is the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of the VIII convocation. Gennadiy Kernes is the mayor of Kharkov.
As Rostislav Ishchenko rightly noticed, the “pro-Russian” elite of Ukraine began to fight against the Third Reich via their introduction into the NSDAP (Nazi party of Hitler – ed).
Then the question of negotiations was raised by the Odessa elite after May 2nd, 2014. But only they seasoned their conditions with additional blood and ashes. But in fact they haven’t understood why Moscow winced with disgust and refused to talk further. It isn’t accepted in Russia to negotiate with corpses and to try to bargain for itself preferences on the blood and suffering of their fellow compatriots.
Up to now, across Moscow and Moscow suburbs the camps of “professional” Odessa emigrants roam, for which the tragedy of May 2nd became a new profession and a means of livelihood.
No less alternatively talented appeared to be also the Kherson elite, who, against the background of the lawlessness of the Tatars of Chubarov and the blockade of Crimea energy, decided to repeat the experiment of their colleagues. And also to their surprise they were left with nothing.
The first, second, and the third, for three years haven’t understood that Russia doesn’t conduct business with small rural shopkeepers, who, at the conclusion of a contract, already keep in mind the conditions for which they will flush Russia.
2016 came to an end — meanwhile “regionals” couldn’t get over themselves and stop being shopkeepers. “Regional” Kolesnikov with his adherents found a great option – to maintain general “regional” welfare – and declared that the Opposition bloc will demand from the authorities to freeze the fulfillment of the economic part of the agreement for at least 10 years:
“Without the renewal of the economic relations with Commonwealth countries and the countries of BRICS, Ukraine can’t have an economy. It is present any more. Therefore we will demand from the authorities as a minimum a ten-year freeze of the economic part of the association with the EU.
It will be included in our anti-crisis plan, which Yury Boyko and will present at the end of January. This plan will give us answers to questions of achieving peace in Ukraine, and the development of economy and social policy.”
The idea is simple. Russia, we will pass our ten years being poor using your domestic market. And then we will go to Europe again, because we, Ukrainian elites, are European, and in general we descend from Burbons. No offense intended, Russia. Now we are ready to be very “pro-Russian”. But only for ten years. And then we will go to Europe again to distance ourselves from Asian Moscow hordes.
“Regional” Elena Bondarenko already in the autumn of 2013 quite accurately described the attitude of the “pro-Russian” elite of Ukraine towards Russia: “At first, Ukraine didn’t hire itself out as Russian soldiers or intelligence agents so that they could use such definitions as — fidelity or treachery”.
Well, so if Ukraine “didn’t hire itself out” to be faithful to Russia, then maybe Russia also doesn’t need to “hire itself out” in order to lift the economy and the production of Ukraine, and to bankroll these territories until their next breakthrough into Europe?
Those who during two and a half years since the spring of 2014 expected that Russia will use forceful methods to punch through an overland corridor to Crimea can exhale and give up on unrealistic dreams.
Russia has coped without treachery and useless Ukrainian elites, having left them to live in the collapsing territories. Instead of becoming allies of Russia, they preferred to remain cunning rural minds. They made their choice. They have to live with this choice.
They aren’t needed — either by Europe or Russia. They already don’t exist in the objective geopolitical reality.
In about 10–15 years, regional elites will come crawling in sharovary and embroidery, sweeping dust with their forelocks, and will ask Russia to agree to the transit of goods through their territories. Let’s see whether Russia will need it at this time.
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