“Revanchist Countries”, “Applicant Countries”, “Spoiler Countries”…

NEW – September 24, 2022

Photo: The head of the Russian delegation at the 77th session of the UN General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Swiss President Ignazio Cassis. Russia’s isolation continues, Lavrov has more than 20 meetings planned for his stay in New York, and the number of applications continues to grow

The “high-level week” taking place on September 20-26 within the framework of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly demonstrates the deepest crisis of the world community — first and foremost, in its political dimension. And this is just the “tip of the iceberg”, consisting of increasingly acute economic, energy, food and other problems, up to global security problems (related to attempts by the United States and its allies to turn the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, as well as the situation around Taiwan into large-scale conflicts).

The United Nations, created after the Second World War, which became the “keystone” of the Yalta-Potsdam world order, was primarily an organisation of the victorious countries and the balance of power between them. The UN structure turned out to be both stable enough and flexible enough to meet the challenges of ensuring peace and development for humanity for almost 80 years, even with very drastic changes in the above-mentioned balance of power. So, after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, it actually transformed into an organisation of the winners of the “cold war”, among which, albeit with great reservations, the Russian Federation can also be counted as the successor country and successor state of the Soviet Union.

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All these decades, the structure of the UN and the principles of its work have remained unchanged: the “Big Five” (“nuclear veto club”) as part of the United States, the USSR/Russia, Great Britain, France and China, thanks to mutual concessions, invariably reached consensus and did not cross the line of a new world war with the use of weapons of mass destruction, primarily nuclear. However, at present, the change in the global balance of power is already reaching the “point of no return”.

The reasons for this situation are clear: this is a systemic crisis of the current mode of production, of the global market in which large multinational companies of the collective West dominate under the banner of the “dollar empire”. One of the consequences of this crisis is the UN crisis. There are increasingly severe contradictions between the “Big Five” countries, which the United States and its allies are trying to pass off as a conflict between “good democracies” (the United States, Great Britain, France, etc.) and bad “autocracies” (Russia and China). Of course, such a division into “pure” and “unclean” contradicts the very idea of the UN and destroys the fundamental foundations of this international organisation.

In addition, the former colonial empires of Great Britain and France are rapidly losing their status as “great powers” in the new reality, which makes the traditional composition of the UN Security Council a kind of historical anachronism, like “rotten borough” in the English political system, when tiny and even virtually disappeared settlements “for old times’ sake” delegated more deputies to parliament than the largest cities. Therefore, countries that are currently gaining more and more economic and political weight are increasingly knocking on the closed doors of the club of permanent members of the UN Security Council with the right of veto. They can be divided into three groups.

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The first group is conditional “revanchist countries”. These include, first of all, Germany and Japan, which were defeated in World War II, and therefore still openly and covertly cherish dreams of revenge, one of the conditions of which is to join the “nuclear veto club” of the UN. The takeover of the GDR in 1989 and the creation of the European Union under the American “roof” were also steps towards the historical revenge of Germany. Berlin clearly considers the current conflict in Ukraine to be the next step. Japan has no such successes and prospects yet and is not expected. And the dependence of both of these states on the United States significantly reduces their own capabilities in the international arena.

The second group is the real “applicant countries”, and India is the number one among them. The “Lotus country” with officially the third (in terms of GDP PPP) economy in the world and so far the second (after China, but soon to surpass China in this indicator) population is systematically strengthening its position, using both historical ties with the UK and the BRICS and SCO mechanisms. Brazil, the leading economy of South America, undoubtedly belongs to the same group. Indonesia is also on the way, the 7th biggest economy in the world today, but its chances are much lower than those of India and Brazil, although further developments, including the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, may make adjustments here.

Finally, the third group of applicants for the expansion of the “Big Five” can be conditionally designated as “adventurer countries” or “spoiler countries”, since their ambitions are significantly higher than their objective chances and are based solely on the current conjuncture. The most striking example here is modern Turkey, which, with the support of the UK, is actively promoting both pan-Turkist (pan-Turanian) and Pan-Ottoman projects. Ukraine’s claims to receive Russia’s current place in the UN can be mentioned as an extreme, clinical case of such spoiling.

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This picture already clearly shows that the reform of the UN and its Security Council is indeed overdue and even overripe, but it can be really implemented only after the end of the conflict of the collective West led by the United States against Russia and China — and only if the UN persists following the results of this conflict. The latter is undoubtedly in the interests of both our country and the “red dragon”.


Vladimir Vinnikov

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