Rostislav Ishchenko: The Kiev Regime’s Ephemeral Hope for a Hot Conflict With Russia

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard


Generally people are inclined to attribute their thoughts and desires to others. Here, for example, Ukrainian “democrats”-eurointegrators eagerly described how the NKVD starved 10 million Ukrainians, shot ten more, dispossessed another ten, and sent them to Siberia, where they disappeared without a trace. Well, and also the last ten million were killed at the frontline from behind by the machine guns of the anti-retreat forces of the same NKVD, exclusively because of sadistic tendencies.

We won’t focus attention on the fact that with such losses every Ukrainian would have been killed twice, and there would be nobody “to fight the Soviets” prior to the beginning of the 1950’s, and also “to fight for independence” as a part of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union up to December, 1991. From the position of this text, another thing is interesting. Just after receiving independence in the guise of a gift, Ukrainian “patriots” started so effectively destroying the population of Ukraine that the NKVD, Gestapo, and Polish secret police Defensywa would die of envy. In twenty five years of independence about 22 million people were lost. From them – a half during the last three years, when power undividedly belonged to “patriots”.

It is necessary to say that occasionally (in the British Ireland or in the Belgian Congo) even higher rates of depopulation were observed. But in these cases it was about the policy of the mother country in colonies, while Ukrainian “patriots” are engaged in the liquidation of their own people. It is necessary to pay them tribute, they achieved in terms of genocide of citizens of Ukraine outstanding success – they by right possess first place in the world for rates of depopulation.

So, when Kiev’s “experts”, “politicians”, “journalists”, and “activists” argue about the “atrocities of the NKVD”, they describe the program of their own governance. At the same time justifying their future real atrocities with the mythical atrocities of the “Soviet regime”, as a result of which up to now no fewer Banderists in Ukraine live than soldiers of the Red Army. Although the latter were twofold more.

Now the government in Ukraine describes how Russia desires to conquer it, to divide, to rob, to finish off “patriots”, and to send ordinary citizens to Siberia for snow cleaning. It is again the hidden desire of the Ukrainian governors and ideologists to breakthrough to the surface. Having stolen more than Ukraine had (some more tens of billions of dollars of debts), now they look with lust at the Russian riches and estimate how many years of impetuous robbery it could give.

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Of course, understanding the consequences of an open conflict with Russia restricts them. They remember oh so well Ilovaisk, Saur-Mogila, Amvrosievka, and other places where unknown artillery (the responsibility for the work of which the militia took upon themselves) diced several brigades of brave Ukrainian troops into Russian Vinegret. Up to this point Ukrainian shells “accidentally” flew onto Russian territory, the shelling of Russian checkpoints happened, even Ukrainian armored machinery stopped by in Russia. And all of this vanished as if by magic.

The three years of memory of the super-accurate shooting of “taxi drivers” and “hairdressers” [a term that Ukraine uses to reference the people of Donbass – ed] worked wonders. As soon as one new “patriot” in a paroxysm of pride for a “European State” declared the desire to start a war (even not with Russia, but with Donbass) they were immediately strongly reminded that behind Donbass there is Russia, and that the next military adventure has every chance of ending much more worse (for Ukraine) than the other two did [cauldrons – ed].

And, nevertheless, in recent months militaristic psychosis is being untwisted in Kiev. It is untwisted consciously – by the authorities, by the political elite, by “patriotic” (another kind no longer exits) media. Despite the fact that between various groups of Ukrainian elites there is a hardened race for power, they have solidarity in one thing – inflating Russophobic moods and preparing public opinion for war with Russia, which is “just about to attack”.

Kiev wasn’t afraid even to spoil relations with Belarus, having staged a psychosis concerning the latest joint exercises between the Armed Forces of Minsk and Moscow. Thus, there was no sense in throwing an insult at Minsk, which remained not only a political, but also a trade and economic window for Ukraine in the CIS. It is widely known in Ukraine that nobody was going to attack them under the cover of exercises.

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The militaristic fever that is plentifully flavored with Russophobia promptly accrues. Moreover, Russophobia is directed not only outside (towards Russia), but also in the country, towards the remaining islands of the Russian culture that haven’t yet been cleansed, and towards any (even the most loyal) opposition to the regime, which Ukraine instantly links to Russia.

Once again I will emphasize, in this absolutely illogical hysteria the Ukrainian political elite is united, almost monolithic, while in general relations between different groups are so conflictual that the disintegration of the country and civil war (the inevitability of which we spoke about three years ago) is now predicted (with a 97% probability) even by Taruta – the oligarch and the former governor of the part of Donetsk region under the control of Kiev.

From my point of view such behavior of the Ukrainian elite and its Maidan-serving personnel is connected with the understanding of an unbiased fact – the internal resource for prolonging the agony of Ukrainian statehood is exhausted, and access to an external one is almost completely cut off. It becomes impossible to keep the situation under control, but a definitive loss of controllability is a threat for all the elite. Some will suffer earlier, some later, but all will suffer, and it will be a question of physical survival, and not all will be able to survive.

The localization of the protest moods of Maidan cannon fodder, which is armed and dangerous for the authorities, in the direction of the fight against the “pro-Russian fifth column” is a way that not only will temporarily remove the elite from the line of fire, but also allows to consolidate the separate forces of Maidan on the grounds of Russophobia and the destruction of the remains of the Russian world in Ukraine. From the point of view of the elite, it is better to kill Russians in Ukraine (or those who are suspected of Russianness) than to kill the rich.

A provocation in the conflict with Russia looks like an absolutely absurd step. But even this step can appear to be workable. Firstly, Kiev isn’t sure that Russia won’t intervene if in the country mass repressions ethnic grounds begin.

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Secondly, Ukraine counts on the West not allowing Russia to crush it completely, and the loss of any number of lands in the East doesn’t frighten.

Thirdly, any regime that lost the opportunity to retain power by means of mechanisms of the regular State, and any regime that feels the danger of an internal explosion, in addition to the danger of an intra-elite coup, gravitates towards a military adventure. An external war against the background of unsolvable internal problems doesn’t seem so frightening.

Fourthly, the regime doesn’t need to win a war. It needs only to record a state of war, and to launch under this pretext the “spontaneous massacre” of Russians (which will additionally bond UAF fighters by blood shed), and then it will be possible to demand the introduction on the territory of Ukraine of an international peacekeeping contingent (formally to stop the massacre, in practice – in order to defend themselves from Russia).

In general, a hot conflict based on Russophobia (albeit internal or external) is the last argument of the Kiev regime allowing it to hope for the preservation of the power. There is again the chance to attract the attention of the West. There is the hope that the West will take an anti-Russian position.

Yes, all these hopes are ephemeral, but there aren’t any other options, and the Ukrainian elite also earlier believed in the most delusional concepts, like prosperity on the basis of “European integration” or the entry of Ukraine into NATO. By the way, all of this is also in line with the same Russophobic concept that now leads to the untwisting of militaristic and xenophobic hysteria in Ukraine.

The most important thing is that anyway, there is no way back. It was cut off by the snipers on Maidan, the Odessa massacre, the war in Donbass. Since the first shots sounded, the top of the regime found itself bound by blood shed. There is nowhere to run. They are herded into a corner and will bite.

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