Rostislav Ishchenko: Why Poroshenko Will Go to the End

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard


All in one day, on May 24th, a document was published on the official website of Petro Poroshenko that reported about the inclusion of MIA “Russia Segodnya” (and all its independent products) on sanctions lists, and Mikhail Dobkin (the former regional and nowadays “Christian socialist”) live on the air demanded to judge and execute Poroshenko after his presidential powers expire…

It’s a symbolic coincidence. Dobkin is the same former Kharkov governor who bragged that he disrupted Yanukovych’s last attempt to show resistance to Maidan, not allowing him to attend the congress of deputies of the Southeast in Kharkov. Back then, by the way, Yanukovych was nearly caught and could’ve been executed by “peaceful protesters”, who then admitted that they were preparing the destiny of Gaddafi for the “self-withdrawing” (according to the official narrative of Maidan) President. So Dobkin can sense the smell of carrion very well. Especially when the smell of carrion comes from the incumbent President, the song of who, however, has already been sung.

The last barrier between Poroshenko and the oppositionists – who are ready to overthrow him without waiting for elections, and who placed a collective stake on Tymoshenko (even Kolomoisky called to support her, as the only real candidate for President) – is Avakov, with his Ministry of Internal Affairs and National Guard. Avakov bargained with everyone, trying to obtain better conditions for himself. But it was clear that there will be a need to hand over Poroshenko all the same. Everyone is against him: oligarchs, the people, nazis, pacifists, militarists, anti-fascists, as well as time and the situation itself. Over the past week in Kiev information began to filter through into minor media and the private blogs of informed (although unremarkable) people about Avakov allegedly making a final choice and conducting decisive negotiations with Tymoshenko over technical details. At the same time the shadow participants of the political game who have worked with Tymoshenko for a long time became more active. So the haste of Dobkin, hurrying to betray in time another master, isn’t surprising.

But, after all, Poroshenko is not Yanukovych. He isn’t afraid of blood. He is already smeared in it from the tip of his nose to the tip of his tail. He has nowhere to run. For Russia he is too odious. And his capital [assets – ed] is in the West. For the West he is too toxic and knows too much. Finally, there is a need to not only reach the plane, but also to reach the border. Knowing the “love” of the people for Poroshenko, not every pilot will risk finding themselves with him in the same plane during takeoff — it can be simply downed, and by their own – Ukrainians, at that.

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In general, the only thing left for Poroshenko to do is to fight to preserve his power in any way. And that’s what he does.

Despite Dobkin outbursts, Savchenko and Ruban – who were jailed to give the SBU and prosecutor’s office a little bridge towards Medvedchuk and Tymoshenko – continue to sit in jail. This means that the idea of jailing the political opponents of Poroshenko continues to be implemented. A power asset of the president is the SBU controlled by Gritsak and Lutsenko’s Prosecutor-General’s Office. Both of them haven’t yet betrayed Poroshenko, and hour “X” comes nearer and soon it will be too late to commit a betrayal. The aggravation in Donbass creates the necessary background, and “agents of the FSB” and the “fifth column of the Kremlin” are “exposed” in Kiev almost every day. Practically all the conditions needed to start the mass arrests of political opponents (while they themselves haven’t yet arrested the President) are created.

Only one thing is left — cleansing the information space of uncontrolled media agencies that, at the moment of truth, can give information exposing Poroshenko and become the center of organising resistance to his attempt to hold onto power by force. Poroshenko knows very well that 9/10ths of Maidan was the media agencies that created the necessary picture and carried out the general control of protesters, and that it is exactly Yanukovych’s loss of control over the information space that caused the loss of control across the country.

His main enemies are Russian media agencies. Since the coup in favor of Poroshenko must be validated by the existence of the “Kremlin conspiracy” and the participation of the internal political opponents of Poroshenko in it, it is clear that the Russian media will expose this lie. So it means that there is a need to shut them up. And so, at first the Kiev authorities took the head of RIA Novosti Ukraine Kirill Vyshinsky hostage (by the way, incriminating him with treason in the form of subversive activities “at the order of the Kremlin”) and almost immediately blocked the work in Ukraine of the last remaining Russian media agencies there. Russian TV, radio, and writing journalists were expelled from Ukraine in their droves long ago. Now they are simply not allowed to enter. After closing the RIA Novosti news agency working in Ukraine, it’s not only Kiev that feels isolated from Russian information, but also the Russian media loses the opportunity to quickly receive information from Kiev.

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But this is not all. Obviously Rossotrudnichestvo will stop its work in Kiev. Local nazis openly promised to cripple or kill (there were already several “warning” attacks) the head of the local Russian Center for Science and Culture Konstantin Vorobiyov. The authorities “didn’t notice” this. Moreover, despite their international obligations, they removed police protection from the Rossotrudnichestvo building a long time ago. It is impossible to keep in Kiev not only journalists, but also diplomats in such conditions. They are the first desired targets of the destabilizer-provokers. I.e., Ukraine is quickly and reliably defended against any representatives of Russia, explaining that “you will be killed if you don’t leave”.

All of this is being done so that when Poroshenko will decide to begin the “night of long knives”, there won’t be anybody to officially defend the people who are labelled “agents of the Kremlin”. Ukraine will declare that the Russian diplomats “withdrew themselves” from fulfilling their duties, like how Yanukovych “withdrew himself” under the threat of murder. And if they won’t want to “withdraw themselves”, then they will be assisted in this. Different excesses happen to diplomats… A hundred years ago the crowd tore the Russian ambassador Griboyedov to pieces in Tehran along with the entire structure of the embassy. And five years ago the ambassador of the US in Libya had the same fate. But in Kiev there are more than enough baboons ready to implement any order. And they are already on the starting blocks. On social networks a video appeared in which they promised to priests of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarch that soon (“after a change of power”) they will come to them with a “final solution”.

And it’s unlikely that Kiev will release Kirill Vyshinsky in an amicable way. Although the task of closing Russian media agencies in Ukraine is solved, the probability of him being handed over or exchanged is very small. Firstly, why does Poroshenko need to liberate “national heroes” from Russian prisons who can support his enemies when they arrive back in Ukraine, something that Savchenko did (which she is now in prison for)? Secondly, Vyshinsky being in prison is a warning aimed at Ukrainian journalists. If the authorities weren’t afraid of jailing a representative of a State Russian news agency on a charge of treason, then they can jail anyone else without hesitation. Thirdly, he is a hostage, and his fate can be used to blackmail Russia.

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Poroshenko was driven into a corner. He already has nothing else to be afraid. He has a real choice between winning or dying (moreover, the chances of winning are minuscule) and he won’t feel sorry for anybody. However, his potential successors aren’t any better.

The fact is that anyone who will come to or will remain in power in Ukraine will be obliged to decide who must be dealt with: the remains of the unarmed Russian world, with the help of armed nazis; or the armed nazis themselves, leaning on power structures, 70% of which consist of these same nazis. Try to guess what choice either Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Dobkin, or anyone who will breakthrough to power will make.

The only difference is that Poroshenko needs excesses already now in order to justify violations of the Constitution and the isolation of his political opponents. But for the others, who still hope that they will be able to reach an agreement with Russia about returning to the situation that existed before the coup (just without Yanukovych), their dependence on nazis – who penetrated into all law enforcement structures, having created in addition their illegal armed groups too – will be unpleasant news, and they will be obliged to authorise excesses after coming to power. The difference is only in swapping the addends in the equation, the result of which will always be the same.

Everything that is now happening in Kiev is subordinated to one idea — the fight for power that is being carried out by political corpses. They have less and less time, the contradictions become more and more sharper, it is impossible to further postpone collisions, the situation spirals out of control. They have no time to calculate the consequences of their decisions (and they aren’t capable of doing it either). They got used to making simple decisions, because it is simply too difficult for them to understand the sense in complicated ones.

After the attacks against official representatives of Russia (journalists and diplomats) Kiev, most likely, will deal with the pacifistic opposition. This is the last stage of cleansing the political space, which smoothly and imperceptibly turns into an open clash between applicants for the presidency.

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