Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
Linear thinking people don’t like complications. For them, any mental process is extremely heavy, unhabitual, and very onerous. That’s why they call even the most simple chain of logic a “cunning plan”, and those who think non-linear – “cunning planners”. From the point of view of linear thinking people, it is possible to solve all problems, even very complicated ones, by a dashing cavalry charge. The main thing is to effectively grab the sword and rush forward with a cry of uraaaaa!!! And when ura-patriotic idiocy ends in disaster, linear thinking people explain the consequences of their actions not by their own idiocy, but as someone’s betrayal. Saying that everything could have been fine, if someone hadn’t betrayed. Otherwise we would win over them!!!
During the process of crying “Ura”, the eyes of ura-patriots start to involuntarily close, because of their widely open mouth, which is why they often do not see even the obvious things. From the point of view of linear thinking people, war is when they all jump on the field with their sword unsheathed. And if no one does this, it means there is no war. They still didn’t understand that the phenomenon of war has different expressions, and an energetic cavalry attack is only its element, and moreover, it is even not always the most difficult and important.
But if the ura-patriots, because of their mind, don’t see something, then they are deeply convinced that it doesn’t exist. Therefore, since Russia did not introduce its troops in Donbass, it means she is not fighting for Donbass, and it means it wants to “flush” Donbass. And the fact that Moscow has already for three years “flushed” the DPR and LPR, but still hasn’t succeeded to do it, does not confuse the ura-patriots. Instead of contemplating about why the long-awaited “flushing” of Donbass still hasn’t happened, the ura-patriots continued to angrily stamp their little foot and in unison shout: “Putin, enter the troops!”
I really do not want to upset the exalted public, but I have to acknowledge that Moscow will never “flush” Donbass. It is absolutely excluded. For a number of objective and subjective reasons.
I will explain why.
Firstly, Donbass is a purely Russian region. I would like to stress that it is more Russian than most Russian regions of Russia. Why? Because for their right to be Russian, many residents of Donbass paid for it with suffering, blood, and death. They have showed themselves like Russians, in the face of terrible danger. And many of them did not tremble, and were not frightened.
That’s why the “flushing” of Donbass is impossible, primarily for moral reasons. It will be obvious betrayal. Everyone in Russia who will do it will become a political corpse.
Secondly, Donbass is a geopolitical and military shield of Russia. Only a fool does not understand that the Donbass militia is fighting not only for their land but also for the whole of Russia, using itself to cover her, almost in the literal sense of the word. Now in Donbass, the battle is not for the DPR and LPR, but for Russia – primarily for Russia.
Thirdly, Donbass is a razor-sharp dagger, deeply embedded in the decrepit body of Russophobic, semi-nazi Anti-Russia [Ukraine – ed]. It is precisely thanks to those bravely and heroically fighting in Donbass that life gradually, drop by drop, leaves the already flopping-in-agony gone-crazy-from-Nazis Ukraine. And this, in turn, creates the necessary prerequisites for the resolving of the Ukrainian question according to the Russian scenario. While Donbass is deeply embedded in Ukraine’s body, we have an opportunity in the process of Russian reconquest to march until Galicia itself.
That is why, in my view, Russia would do well to relate to Russians in Donbass in a special way.
First of all, it makes sense to simplify acquiring Russian citizenship for people with passports of DPR and LPR. It would be humane, fair, and appropriate. War for many of them ruined their life and destiny [Actually, this is exactly what Putin did just a few hours after this article was published… – ed].
Also it would be worth it to provide the Donbass militiamen and Russian volunteers who fought/are fighting on the side of the DPR and LPR the status of combatants, with all the ensuing benefits in Russia. I again repeat: everyone who is now fighting in Donbass with Ukrainian Nazis and the military is fighting not for the provisional DPR and LPR, but for Russia, for Russian interests, for Russian people.
And finally, it is necessary to provide Donbass with all possible material and humanitarian help. Especially the children of Donbass.
Donbass is a purely Russian land. Donbass is de facto already a part of the Russian territory, and it will be de jure (in their administrative boundaries) as soon as the necessary conditions arise. Therefore, it is necessary to think of Donbass as Russian territory already now.
It’s not accidental that I paid a lot of attention to Donbass. Donbass is the key to the whole of Ukraine. However, to use this key is possible only in certain conditions. Therefore, these conditions must first be created.
In the previous part of my thoughts, I stressed that Ukraine is needed by the West only as a tool in the geopolitical confrontation with Russia. While it can be used to strike at Russia, it will be necessary for Washington and Brussels. But Ukraine itself is not needed by Europe, and much less by the United States.
In 2014, the West captured Ukraine through a state coup, in order to then use it like a cudgel to strike Russia. There were no other goals of this capture.
That is especially why for Moscow, on the one hand, it was necessary to evade this “cudgel” strike, and on the other hand, to break this “cudgel” into splinters.
Ukraine has no allies. But she has foreign owners. So that foreign owners lose any interest in it, drop it, and stop to support it, it was necessary to transform Ukraine into nothing, to make it completely unusable by Americans and Europeans.
In order to achieve such a result, Moscow had to have, firstly, time, and secondly, the corresponding conditions that would allow to significantly undermine the forces of Ukraine and to demonstrate to the West the absolute futility and even harmfulness of Kiev. This necessary time and conditions of Russia was given by the so-called Minsk Agreements, that Russian era-patriots curse with such ecstasy in every way.
Of course, linear thinking people, upon hearing this statement, in unison will start to cry that Vajra sold himself to the Kremlin and tries to justify the absolutely-failing Minsk Agreements. However, the essence of the Minsk Agreements, I have said more than once, for both the first and second one. While I always stressed that the so-called Minsk Agreements will never be implemented.
Here’s what I wrote on the day of the signing of the first Minsk Agreement, even before its contents became known:
“We can confidently predict that on September 5th the Minsk negotiations of the contact group will end in a stalemate. For actual results there is no necessity for political preconditions”.
At this time I added:
“Ending the war in Donbass can take place only in the format of Russian-American agreements, in the framework of which Moscow and Washington can find a compromise, and Ukraine and “Novorossiya” will formulate these agreements around the table of official negotiations. But, apparently, at the moment the objective factors didn’t come to the surface that allow Russia and the United States to find the algorithm for the solution of the Ukrainian problem, which satisfies both the Russians and Americans. And if the algorithm will not be found, the military conflict in Ukraine will end only when one of the warring parties will suffer a military defeat”.
Now it is not difficult to understand that my prediction and my assessment of the situation was absolutely correct. After Minsk-1 a massive military escalation followed, which, after the UAF was defeated, led to Minsk-2.
Two days after the signing of the second Minsk Agreement , I wrote:
“The next Minsk talks on the settlement of the armed conflict in Ukraine, despite the reached agreements, most likely will not give any practical result. For this there is simply no objective conditions”.
And I added:
“Now we just have to wait, when Ukraine will violate its commitments and sabotage the implementation of the new Minsk Agreements”.
A little bit later, in July 2015, I concluded:
“Any peace agreement that Russia and Europe will be forced Ukraine to sign would not be implemented. Another dozen peace agreements can be concluded, but their result will be similar to Minsk-1 and Minsk-2”.
It is worth noting that for quite a long time one of the “towers of the Kremlin” [fifth column – ed] actively promoted the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. The main goal was the “flushing” of the DPR-LPR for Akhmetov, and to squeeze the People’s Republics back into Ukraine in the form of autonomy. Certain forces in Moscow and in Ukraine tried in such a way to receive for their sole use the Donbass enclave. However, they, as I predicted, didn’t succeed. Oligarchic revenge on Donbass failed. The Ukrainian oligarchs are not capable of influencing the situation there anymore.
But, as I said, Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 was not supposed to lead to the settlement of the conflict – their main task was to gain time for maximum weakening of Ukraine and to cut off her external support. Despite the friendly cries of Russian ura-patriots that Moscow is “flushing” Donbass and does nothing, all the while Russia, with almost no noise and fuss, made the maximum economic, political, informational, and diplomatic effort to cause maximum damage to Ukraine, and to cut off the Ukrainian elite from its Western masters. And these combined efforts began to show results last year. Which I then wrote. And in the first half of 2017, with the arrival of Trump, the gradual process of distancing Europe and the United States from the Ukraine started to gain momentum, which is spiralling towards the complete political isolation of Kiev. At the moment, the West doesn’t see the sense in further playing the Ukrainian card in connection with the futility of this undertaking, because this card is beaten by Moscow.
It is precisely for this reason that the European Union by the end of last year reduced its financial assistance to Ukraine to the very minimum, and now gradually becomes accustomed to the idea that further investments in the current Ukrainian regime is meaningless, fruitless, and in general it should be stopped. Everyone froze in anticipation of impending elections in Europe, the results of which could radically change the EU’s position to the country of the winning “brainwashism”.
So recently the Centre for European Policy Studies, which studied for the last three years the economic situation in Ukraine, recommended to the EU to consider the issue of terminating financial assistance to Ukraine.
Such body movements of the West are not accidental. The fact that the current ruling Ukrainian elite, which plunged Ukraine in early 2014 into a large-scale catastrophe, not only doesn’t try to pull the country out of this disaster, but is making maximal collective efforts to make this catastrophe more widespread, deeper, and irreversible. In fact, now Ukraine loses self-control, the remnants of the able-bodied population, statehood, and the economy. The dying of the country entered its final phase. And it becomes harder for the Kiev clique with each passing day to hide it.
And finally, it is worth noting that while the flywheel of the destructive processes was spun in Ukraine, bodies of state management and capable Armed Forces were sequentially being formed on the territories of the DPR and LPR. As one would say in Odessa, the 2014 and 2017 models of the self-proclaimed Republics have two big differences.
In my opinion, we should not exaggerate the achievements of the DPR and LPR. Already at least, because without Russian help these acheivements simply would not exist. But these achievements are obvious. The chaos of the initial period of the revolution was overcome. Anarchy is eliminated. Stable order is installed. The influence on the region of Ukrainian oligarchy is eliminated. Local apparatus of governance and public administration are formed. A fully-fledged Armed Forces was created.
There is no doubt that the self-proclaimed Republics of Donbass are nothing more than quasi-state formations, able to exist only with the support of Russia. But the fact is that in this respect Ukraine differs little from the DPR and the LPR. She is also a quasi-state formation that can exist only with the support of the West. In its “state independence and sovereignty”, the self-proclaimed in 2014 Republics of Donbass represent a reduced analog of the self-proclaimed Ukraine itself in 1991. Only with one difference – Ukraine was recognized by the world; the DPR and LPR were not. But in current conditions it does not matter. The self-proclaimed Republics are not the goal but the means of achieving the goal. And, above all, it is political and military means. And this tool still hasn’t yet been launched in full. But it is already ready for this.
The sense of the existence of the DPR-LPR is the liquidation of project “Ukraine”. And this is largely not “evil intent” but “ill fate”. By and large Ukraine itself, by its crazy actions, created breakaway Republics for its own peril. And the funny thing is that its leadership still does not understand this. But as a famous Russian politician once said, “who did not understand, will understand.” A little bit later.
That’s why Russia has no need to engage with Ukraine in a direct military confrontation. For this she has the DPR and LPR. And I don’t think that someone in Moscow is afraid, unable, or unwilling to use this geopolitical instrument in full force. After the events in Syria, only mindless Russian ura-patriots can think in this way by habit.
During war every strike has its proper moment. The art of war supposes the ability to strike the right spot at the right time. When is the “right time”? This is the moment when the enemy is most vulnerable to strike. After the strike made in the needed place and needed moment follows not the fight, but the surrender of the enemy, or its beating. The correctness of this sentence was demonstrated by the recent events in Crimea and Syria. But for the most effective military strike the situation needs to be created prior. That is why war is called the continuation of politics by other means.
Based on the above, I do not exclude that at the right time, in the right place the fiction of the Minsk Agreements will give way to a new round of very intense civil war. At least now now everything is going in this direction. The fruit is maturing and is virtually ready to be picked.
A new phase of civil war in Ukraine is as inescapable as a compromise between the warring parties is impossible. And if it starts, it will be the largest and the bloodiest in all the post-Maidan years. And the warring parties will fight not to a new truce, but to the military destruction of one of the sides. Everything is ready for this.
The strategic objective of Kiev is the physical destruction of the rebellious Donbass. In the event of the destruction of the DPR and LPR, the Ukrainian neo-Nazi battalions and the punitive forces of Ukraine will deploy on the territory of the breakaway Republics large-scale terrorism, not only against the militias and local authorities, but also against the civilian population as a whole. The consequences of this terrorism will be catastrophic.
The strategic goal of the DPR and LPR, as a minimum, is the establishment of full control over the entire territories of Donbass, with access to the administrative borders of the region, as a maximum – a breakthrough to Kiev, Kharkov, and/or Odessa.
Any of these option may be fatal for Ukraine. The loss of Donbass will inevitably lead to the deepest political crisis in Kiev, with unpredictable consequences. As a result of this, most likely, the current political regime of Poroshenko will fall. If the shock militia units will be able to completely destroy the UAF military forces in the South-East, and as a result in this region there will be a few more People’s Republics, it will not only lead to the deepest political crisis in Kiev, but will deal a catastrophic blow to the financial-economic character of Ukraine. The alliance of five or six Republics of the South-East, for objective reasons, will be stronger than the Center and West of the country.
Practically all of the population of Donbass totally hates Ukraine and is waiting for its liberation. For them, the Ukrainian authorities is purely an occupation, and local “Glory to Ukraine, Glory to Heroes” patriots are despised. As was recently explained to Ukrainian journalists by a Ukrainian patriot in Avdeevka, “Here in Avdeevka they are rabble, because they watch ‘Russia TV’, listen to Zakharchenko… I am already cursed by the whole of Avdeevka. I saluted our guys, while these f*****g people posted me in a separatist group on the Internet. Now I’m a traitor. Where is the SBU looking”? The ordinary people of Donbass’ hatred towards Ukraine is even openly described by representatives of the civil administration of “liberated”-by-the-UAF parts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Most of the population of other regions of the Southeast also quite negatively perceive the current Ukrainian government. Now this population, in its anti-Ukrainian sentiment is not as radical as the Donetsk and Lugansk people, but because of objective reasons their dissatisfaction with Kiev will only gradually become more radical. In certain situations, a horrible end will be perceived by them as the lesser evil compared to horror without an end. The population of the South-East for sure will not fight with the Donbass militias, and the emergence of new independent Republics, able to solve their own problems, will be perceived as a real possibility of an individual exit from this deaf deadlock that Poroshenko put the country in.
The current political regime in Ukraine is, by its nature, incapable of compromise. It can’t become different, it will go to the end in a “brainwashed” frenzy, destroying the country and exterminating people. That’s why when it will find itself politically isolated without any support from the outside, a new round of intense fighting in the so-called “ATO zone” may be inevitable. Otherwise, to end the civil war in Ukraine is impossible.
If, before the coup, the optimal solution of the Ukrainian issue could be the federalization of Ukraine (through political compromise), now it can only be solved by the Confederalisation of the country (through armed struggle).
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