“Gazprom” sent a notification to the Ukrainian “Naftogaz” stating that “Gazprom” would have no legal grounds for supplying gas to Ukraine on January 1st at 10:00 am. A little mocking, huh? Not at 00:01, but at 10:00. Well, like, we had champagne at night, woke up, came to work, and twisted your valve.
What are the consequences?
1. The Ukrainian gas transit system will have to maintain pressure in its system on its own. Without sufficient pressure, the gas in certain sections of the pipe will simply stop. Compressor stations cannot push gas to the next section after them without pumping gas from the previous one. It is a kind of piston system – gas pushes gas and it is impossible to replace it with air. As a result, the gas transit system will collapse into local subsystems, which will be closed to underground storage facilities. The only problem is that they are mostly located in the west of the country, and industries/consumers – in the center and east. I.e., it is necessary to expand gas pumping from the west to the east and to abandon gas pumping for the EU. Technically, this is an incredibly difficult task in terms of regulation, something can explode in the end. The gas transit system was built during the USSR and then not modernised.
2. There is little gas in the storage facilities. It is necessary to choose who to release the gas to according to limits – industries/consumers or the population. Not an easy choice, both politically and technically. Zelensky was brought to power by oligarchs and so they will not allow their enterprises to just be ruined. The only way out is to demonopolise Russian gas purchases. I.e., to give any factory owner the right to buy gas from “Gazprom” on its own (if it still agrees) and to force the gas transit system to deliver gas to this buyer.
3. Zelensky was given a technical ultimatum before December 9th: either gas or freedom to Donbass.
Politdzhoystik: Ukraina (Telegram)
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