NEW – January 19, 2023
Recently, I talked for a long time with a friend who had moved to the USA, but now he has returned to Moscow for a short time for family matters. And the conversation turned to the plan of war against Russia, more precisely, the big plan of “zeroing” Russia. The friend is engaged in financial analytics in the field of the American military-industrial complex and his opinion seemed interesting to me:
“The administration definitely has no plans for a complete military victory over Russia. Everyone understands how difficult it is and how it can end. The Russian nuclear arsenal is a ‘stop signal’ that no one has figured out how to bypass. In addition, the collapse of Russia is the spread of this arsenal across the planet and the likely emergence of a radical territorial entity with a huge revanchist complex in part of Russia, in which the use of nuclear weapons is already a matter from the ‘die with honour’ section. Therefore, starting the war against Russia in February last year, the Americans took out of the archive of Operation Desert Storm and the subsequent sanctions strangulation of the Saddam regime, which seemed to the administration (Biden) the closest to the current situation.
(Let me remind you that in 1990 Iraq and its leader Saddam Hussein were the most powerful and influential state in the Middle East, determining the situation in the Persian Gulf region. At the same time, Saddam behaved independently of the United States and tried to put pressure on them, promising to raise oil prices) Saddam was actually lured to Kuwait (the former province of Iraq), sending a signal through diplomatic channels that they would not prevent the ‘reunification’ of Iraq and Kuwait, but as soon as Iraq brought troops into Kuwait, they called it aggression, occupation and an ultimatum was presented to Iraq, harsh sanctions were immediately imposed against it and preparations for a military operation called ‘Desert Storm’ began, during which the Iraqi group in Kuwait was defeated in 41 days, Iraq was forced to withdraw its troops and request peace. The United States and its allies did not invade Iraq and overthrow Hussein, but retained the regime of the most severe sanctions, which over the next ten years depleted Iraq’s military and economic potential to the level that allowed the Americans to occupy Iraq during the next war (Operation Shock and Awe), overthrow and destroy Hussein. Actually, the same tracing paper was applied to Russia:
Force Russia to recognise the impossibility of a military victory in Ukraine;
Force Russia to enter into peace negotiations;
Force Russia to withdraw its troops from the territories occupied by it.
To do this, it is necessary to provide maximum military, military-technical and financial assistance to Ukraine, to support it in every possible way with logistics, intelligence capabilities and training of personnel, ensuring the superiority of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the army of the Russian Federation, but without direct intervention in the war by the United States and its NATO allies.
Simultaneously with the military component, to introduce a regime of complete economic and political isolation of Russia. After that, according to the authors of the plan, a political crisis with regime change is quite possible in Russia. If it does not exist, then the further sanctions regime and increasing isolation will have to exhaust Russia and throw it to the sidelines of the world political system, turning it into a marginal, dilapidated, third-rate power for the next 25, 30 years.”
Today, almost a year later, after the activation of this plan, several conclusions can be drawn:
Despite the huge military-technical and financial support of Ukraine, it was not possible to achieve strategic superiority over the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The military success of September could not be developed. Now the United States is trying to prepare the UAF for the spring campaign as much as possible, hoping to increase efforts to achieve a turning point in favour of the UAF.
The United States underestimated Russia’s military capabilities, its ability to quickly rebuild its defence industry and conduct a large-scale mobilisation, bringing its army to a level that excludes any “quick” option of inflicting military defeat on it.
The sanctions regime and isolation also did not have the desired effect, since these sanctions did not become universal (accepted by all developed countries), and Russia’s industrial potential is immeasurably more powerful than Iraq’s, which was not ready for sanctions and was completely dependent on foreign supplies of raw materials and components. Russia has practically not buckled under ten packages of sanctions and is now gradually recouping its losses from the beginning of last year, and in a number of areas it is showing growth. Especially in the military-industrial complex, zeroing out the effect of the supply of foreign weapons to Ukraine.
There are no prerequisites for the development of a political crisis in Russia. In defence, the population of Russia is mobilising around the political leadership of the country and the warring army.
All this, in fact, cancels out plans to deal with Russia according to the “Iraqi” option, although the current American administration, which launched this plan, is not yet ready to accept this reality and is following the path of maximum stake increases, simply having no other plan in hand. And this means that in the next three to four months the war will reach maximum tension and bitterness. With a high degree of probability, all the main battles of this war will take place before the autumn, and if the United States and the armed forces controlled by them cannot achieve a military breakthrough in their favour, we can expect the beginning of the search for a diplomatic way out, negotiations with Russia on peace and fixing the results of the past year and a half of the war. During these negotiations, the United States is unlikely to negotiate a peace treaty, but will insist on maintaining the uncertainty of the outcome of the war according to its scheme…
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